🥛 120+ investors agree: BTC going up 📈

GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that scours for data, reports, and insights that will make you smarter about crypto.

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ “Higher” – Institutions & Retail
✍️ What to look out for this week
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Last Big Dip Before ATHs? Rate Cuts, Trade Deals & Bitcoin Supply Shock w/ Julio Moreno
🍪 Airdrop season is here (almost)

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market that’s rolling out a new product feature. Explore “Earnings Markets” on Polymarket right now.

Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Buy today with Milk Road Swap.

INSTITUTIONS AND RETAIL AGREE: WE’RE GOING HIGHER 🤝

[Read in the style of a Law & Order intro]

Between Sep 17 and Oct 3, Glassnode and Coinbase surveyed 120+ global investors, across both institutional and retail segments, to get their perspectives on crypto market trends.

These are their findings (dun dun):

1/ What phase of the crypto market do you think we’re in?

The cliff notes here: retail is bullish, while institutions are just about ready to flip bearish. 👇

Source: Glassnode

2/ What do you consider to be the biggest tail risk for crypto markets in the next 3-6 months?

We’ve got ourselves a consensus here!

Both segments see macro as the biggest risk to crypto markets – and if we had to guess, we’d say the key worry would likely be around an economic slow down, or outright recession.

Source: Glassnode

3/ What is your Bitcoin forecast for the next 3-6 months?

This is by far the most exciting result of the three.

It’s agreed: Bitcoin is most likely going higher in the next 3-6 months – to $130k+.

Source: Glassnode

In a nutshell:

Institutions mostly think the crypto market is about to have its ‘last hurrah’ before entering a bear market, while retail appears to think we’re about to enter an extended bull run (with the business cycle breaking its 4 year trend).
Both retail and institutions mostly see macro factors as the biggest risk to crypto (subscribe to our free Milk Road Macro newsletter to monitor any big picture shifts).
The majority in both segments are expecting a $130k+ Bitcoin between now and March of next year.

Here’s what’s getting us particularly excited:

That last prediction would likely see Bitcoin break its 8yr resistance line on the monthly timeframe, flipping it into support.

(Meaning the price would struggle to break below the white line.) 👇

Source: TradingView

Hell yeah! Higher.

POLYMARKET IS EXPANDING

From sports to politics to culture, Polymarket has dominated prediction markets.

And now, they’re rolling out a brand new product feature called “Earnings Markets.”

You can now bet Yes/No on earning events like:

Will Tesla beat earnings?
Will Nvidia mention China?
Will Netflix beat EPS estimates?

See live odds on earnings this week for TSLA, NFLX, IBM, and more…

Explore “Earnings Markets” on Polymarket right now.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆

Macro, stocks, government, events…

Their shifts all affect the broader global market. And when the global market moves, crypto follows along with it.

So here’s what’s coming down the pike this week:

1/ Macro 🌎

The macro schedule goes a little something like this…

September Existing Home Sales data – Thursday – How’s the existing housing market faring right now?
September CPI Inflation data – Friday – Is inflation still rearing its ugly head?
October Services PMI data – Friday – Are purchasing managers in the service industry ramping up their spending? If so, this could signal future economic growth
October MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday – A vibe check with consumers

With the US government still shut down, a lot of economic data releases have been put on pause.

One piece of data that will manage to get through is September’s CPI (which measures inflation) — it was originally due out on October 15th, but was pushed to this Friday.

The good news here is: the Federal Reserve will have the CPI data ahead of the FOMC Meeting next week, where they will decide on a potential rate cut.

More data = more ways to make an educated decision.

2/ Earnings 💰

~10% of S&P 500 companies report their earnings this week, including Galaxy Digital, who are making their public earnings debut (you can read our Galaxy deep dive here).

Source: @eWhispers

3/ Government 🏛️

Enjoying the price rebound we’re seeing across crypto today?

…would be a reeeal pity if someone posted about further tariff increases on Chinese imports, no?

Source: @WatcherGuru

We’ll be keeping an eye on this.

4/ Events 📆

This week, our Head Of Research, Kyle Reidhead, is speaking at Zebu Live in London (Oct 21-22) – if you’re there, go say hi!

Then, not to be out done…

The Fed is hosting a conference focused on stablecoins and tokenization! The resulting momentum of which could be huge for the industry. 👇

Source: @MilkRoadDaily

Alright, that’s everything.

Mark your calendars and hold onto your butts.

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

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BitMine pumps after buying the dip: they bought over 200,000 ETH just last week!

Airdrop season is here (almost) — this would be a much needed stimulus for alts.

All time highs: Prediction markets hit record $2B volume amid NYC mayoral election betting frenzy — DL News.

We’ll be watching this: Propy is looking to bring the housing market onchain with the help of AI, and they’re teasing a big announcement set to be made this Wednesday.

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