Today’s edition is brought to you by Stacks - the leading Bitcoin L2 gearing up for the largest update yet with the Stacks Nakamoto Release.
Bitcoin is more than you think.
GM. This is Milk Road, we help you get smarter about crypto every day.
Here’s what we’re serving up:
- BTC’s 7-month streak is almost over 🚨
- BTC seasons vs. Altcoin season 📊
- Hong Kong had a rough first day at crypto school 💩
- These indicators will show you the bull market top 👀
- BTC ETFs see outflows (again) 🍪
Prices as of 12:30 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
BTC’S 7-MONTH STREAK IS ALMOST OVER 🚨
They say all good things must come to an end… (learned that the hard way when they took away nap time after Kindergarten).
Now, it looks like BTC’s 7-month green streak is coming to an end.
BTC is currently down ~12% this month, so unless it has a historic day today… it’ll end up in the red for the first time since August 2022.
You know what they say though… April showers bring May flowers!
P.S. - reply to this email with a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ if you think May will be a bounceback month!
EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF BITCOIN.
Welcome to Bitcoin season 2.
With the rise of layer 2 solutions like Stacks (STX) at the helm, users are separating BTC the asset from Bitcoin, the settlement layer for a global Bitcoin economy.
Following a successful first phase of the Nakamoto upgrade, the Stacks ecosystem is preparing for the final Nakamoto Activation phase, which will ultimately bring fast block times and Bitcoin finality, ushering in a new era of security, usability, and utility for builders and users.
With advances like Nakamoto, L2s are enabling an economic flywheel around BTC through apps and smart contracts – unlocking a $1T opportunity for the Bitcoin economy.
Ready to join the movement as Bitcoin’s season 2 heats up? Check out the top 8 Decentralized Finance Apps on Bitcoin.
BTC SEASON VS. ALTCOIN SEASON 📊
Crypto is a lot like the weather - both have seasons and both are unpredictable as f*ck.
Well, check it out. One of the best ways to see what ‘season’ crypto is in, is to check the Altcoin Season Index.
How it works: The index compares the top 50 tokens’ performances over the last 90 days with BTC’s.
- If 75% of the tokens outperformed BTC… it’s Altcoin Season.
- If less than 25% of the tokens outperformed BTC… it’s Bitcoin Season.
Right now, only 37% of the top 50 tokens have outperformed BTC - meaning, we’re closer to Bitcoin Season.
HONG KONG ETF’S HAVE A ROUGH FIRST DAY 💩
The first BTC and ETH ETFs launched in Hong Kong yesterday.
How’d ‘Day 1’ go? It was a day to remember forget.
- BTC ETFs saw $8.5M in trading volume
- ETH ETFs saw $2.5M in trading volume
- For a whopping total of… $11M
Side note: For comparison, BTC ETFs in the U.S. saw $655M in trading volume on Day 1.
We’ll see if Hong Kong can bounce back.
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 📊
Crypto moves in cycles, and knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Here are the 5 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signaling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run still 🏄 🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️ 🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Tuesday, we update these 5 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market.👇
