GM PRO DOers! 😎
🚨 I’m sounding the alarm. 🚨
The stars are aligning across various realms of market analysis.
We appear to be reaching an inflection point in markets, and my spidey senses are tingling.
I’m going to break it all down with charts in just a second. But here’s why this matters…
Back in January of this year (before PRO was launched), I was screaming on the Milk Road podcast that it was time to seriously enter the markets.
It was a time when inflation worries were immense, interest rates were going the wrong way, the FTX collapse was less than 2 months old, and the sentiment in crypto and broader markets was terrible.
Even though most people thought the world was ending, if you looked under the hood, the stars were aligning across various realms of market analysis.
Forward-looking macro numbers, technical analysis, and sentiment all pointed towards one thing; markets were ready to make a big move to the upside.
Despite the consensus being that we were heading much lower, Bitcoin almost doubled from $16,500 to $30,000 in the first half of 2023…
…and the NASDAQ (tech stocks) had their best start to a year in history!
Since the summer, however, markets have been quiet and especially in crypto’s case, are lower than they were halfway through the year.
We’ve once again reached a point of peak fear in sentiment; “inflation is sticky”, “interest rates will be higher for longer”, and “markets will be heading much lower”. 🙄
Yet, when I look under the hood, it appears to me that the stars are once again aligning. ✨
Forward-looking macro, TA, and sentiment are all pointing towards one thing: markets are about to make another big move to the upside.
This is your PSA to allocate if you have not done so already. The rest of this report will showcase 30+ charts on why I believe this to be true.
Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing. Markets never are. But the probabilities are very much in our favor.
This also doesn't mean that if you buy today it will go up tomorrow. These things take time, but when they happen, they tend to happen fast (especially in crypto). 🌊
Let’s start this off with a chart to help you visualize where I think this is going (I’m going to end this report with an even better chart, so make sure you get to the bottom).
Here is a chart comparing the S&P 500 this year to the average seasonality prices of the S&P 500 since the 60s.
This year, the chart is correlating at 91%, and look at what it has in store for Q4 of 2023…
For context, The S&P 500 is up 12.5% YTD ($BTC 61.7%), and the chart above suggests that the S&P 500 will increase by 18% in Q4, which will mean even more gains for $BTC & crypto.
Now, of course, seasonality doesn’t determine where markets will go. History doesn’t always repeat, but it does often rhyme.
Let’s dive into the real specifics of why markets are about to make a move to the upside…
There are 3 areas of analysis that I’m going to discuss below:
- Macro, but specifically: Inflation, Unemployment, and Liquidity
- Technical Analysis
- Sentiment
While this might sound like a lot and very complex topics, I'm going to keep it super simple by using charts for illustration.
This will be a walk in the park for you and well worth it in the end.
Also, for context, remember that crypto is still very much controlled by the macro environment, as are tech stocks, so let's consider the factors that influence them as being interconnected.
And finally, a quick shoutout to Global Macro Investor for most of the charts I use below. This is an institutional-grade research report that is very exclusive, and I’m lucky to have access to.
Macro: WTF Is Up With Inflation
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