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GM. This is Milk Road, your backstage pass to the crypto circus. Step right up and witness the greatest show on the blockchain. Elephants not included.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ Mt. Gox repayments: Bearish or bullish?
- 📊 COTD: Weekly crypto fund flows
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: ETH ETF Predictions w/ Matt Hougan CIO at Bitwise
- 🍪 Japan’s Metaplanet adds $1.2M more worth of $BTC to treasury
Prices as of 9:30AM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
BEARISH OR BULLISH? THE MT. GOX UNLOCK DILEMMA ⛰️
GM, you lovely crypto cowboys and cowgirls! Saddle up because today’s news is juicier than a Wagyu steak.
Some of the Mt. Gox funds are about to be distributed back to creditors!
Yup, the same Mt. Gox that was hacked in 2011 and lost up to 950k $BTC.
About 140K of those coins were recovered, that’s roughly $9B worth of Bitcoin at today's prices.
Repayment of the stolen $BTC has been haunting crypto lore since the hack like a bad Tinder date that just won’t go away. AND now its repayment funds are doing the shuffle again:
Kraken has just got a significant chunk of that $BTC from the Mt. Gox Trustee, and it will be back in the hands of users within 2 weeks:
We just might be nearing the end of the saga as that $3.1B of repayment funds made its way to Kraken’s wallet while another $2.74B still sits with the trustee but moved to another wallet.
Here’s the trillion-dollar question: What will creditors do? Dump their newly acquired $BTC and $BCH like it’s a fire sale, or hold on tighter than a HODLer in a bull run?
History suggests a mix, so let’s look at the bear and bull case for each:
🐻 Bearish: The double-whammy effect
First, let's talk bear. This distribution is no small fry – it's double the size of the infamous Germany $BTC dump.
Remember how that shook the market?
Now picture twice that impact! (keep in mind, Germany was straight up selling while Mt. Gox is redistributing to creditors who might sell.)
With a massive ~92K $BTC total on the move, the fear is palpable: a flood of coins hitting exchanges could send prices tumbling faster than you can say "sell-off."
- Sheer volume: We're talking about a substantial chunk of $BTC being unleashed. If even a fraction of these creditors decide to liquidate, we could see decent downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
- Market panic: Large sell orders can create a domino effect, triggering panic selling. The market is a delicate beast, and a sudden influx of sell orders (or even just the news and potential of it as we saw with Germany) can spook investors.
🐂 Bullish: The OGs are here to stay
Now, let's flip the script and talk bull. These aren't your run-of-the-mill investors.
We're dealing with OG Bitcoin users from 2013 – the true believers, the HODLers, the ones who stuck it out through thick and thin. Here's why they might just keep those $BTC under lock and key:
- Already stacked: These early adopters have likely accumulated more $BTC over the years. Selling now might not be their first move, these guys understand the cycles.
- Risk curve play: Instead of cashing out entirely, these savvy investors might shift their assets down the risk curve. Think $ETH, $SOL, and other altcoins. Diversifying their portfolios could mean spreading the love, not just exiting the market.
🥛 Milk Road Take: So, what's it going to be? Bullish or bearish?
Honestly, it's a mixed bag, and anyone's guess is as good as ours. The market could sway either way depending on how these funds are managed by the creditors. Rather than stress out, we recommend zooming out and taking a look at where this market is going in the next few months to years, not the next few days to weeks… (HINT: LIKELY MUCH HIGHER)
Life’s much easier that way! 😉
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COTD: WEEKLY CRYPTO FUND FLOWS 📊
Hold onto your crypto bags, Roaders! Last week’s inflows of $1.44B were like finding a golden ticket in your cereal box.
That’s the 6th largest inflow on record as every day last week saw inflows! 🥳
Let’s dive into the numbers…
Source: CoinShares via Bloomberg
Here’s the scoopity:
Bitcoin ($BTC): The king of crypto is still on its throne with a staggering $1.35B in inflows. After a sluggish June, Bitcoin is now partying like Diddy again.
Ethereum ($ETH): The spotlight on $ETH brought inflows of $72M, the highest since March! The buzz around the imminent spot-based ETF approval in the US is giving Ethereum some serious street cred.
Regional breakdown:
- The US led the charge with a whopping $1.3B in inflows. Yeehaw, America!
- Germany chipped in with inflows of $11.7M.
- $57.5M for Switzerland flowed in (that’s a Swiss cheese head record).
- Hong Kong saw $54.6M in inflows.
The significant inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a global appetite for digital assets, even amidst price volatility.
Investors seem to be positioning themselves for the next big move in crypto (which just might be from the $ETH ETF approval). If you’re curious on how these flows will look after the ETFs go live, check out today’s episode of The Milk Road Show with Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, to hear the BOLD predictions!
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PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
Crypto moves in cycles, and knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 5 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Tuesday, we update these 5 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
