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GM. This is Milk Road. The daily read that’s as satisfying as the first click click of the BBQ tongs.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ A make or break moment for markets
- 📊 The slope of enlightenment
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Is $ETH Dead or Are We Valuing It Wrong? w/ Lark Davis
- 🍪 Polygon just upgraded $MATIC to $POL
Prices as of 9:30AM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
A MAKE OR BREAK MOMENT FOR MARKETS 😰
“If you had one shot…to seize everything you ever wanted…would you capture it, or just let it slip?”
– Marshall Bruce Mathers The Third, 2002 AD.
‘Cool Eminem reference. Really poignant stuff. But how does it relate to crypto?’
(Thanks!) And allow us to elaborate…
Right now there are a few major, market-leading stocks and cryptocurrencies sitting at similar inflection points – NVIDIA, Coinbase, and Ethereum are all at make or break moments within their long term trends!
Meaning the outcome for each is likely going to be one of two things:
Really bad or really good. 👀
We’re going to show you the charts, tell you what we’re seeing, then dig into the possible outcomes – ready? Good.
1/ NVIDIA ($NVDA)
NVIDIA is about to touch an upward trendline that it has been following since late 2022.
It already touched it once when market’s tanked in early August, and is looking like it’s about to retest.
The bullish news: NVIDIA has (so far) had a habit of double-tapping its trendline then launching (see how it’s done it twice already?).
2/ Coinbase ($COIN)
Coinbase didn’t quite touch its long term trendline after August’s crash, but recently succeeded on its second attempt.
Historically, $COIN has only needed to touch its trendline once in order to launch (and it’s done so three times since the start of 2023!).
3/ Ethereum ($ETH)
Like Coinbase before it, Ethereum has a habit of bouncing off its trend and not looking back – though it may be about to break that habit with a second touch of the trendline following August’s crash.
Holding this trendline would be as bullish as it is crucial to $ETH’s long term health.
Ok, so what can we take from these charts?
Let’s rip the bandaid off, right away! 🩹
If we start to see these assets break their trendlines at the weekly close, that could be a very bad sign.
(As the saying goes: “The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.”)
But right now, we’re not seeing a whole lot of reasons for these trends to bend…
- Retail spending is up
- Inflation is coming down
- Rate cuts are on their way (which should help to increase the amount of money flowing into stocks, and risk assets like crypto).
Plus: when you look at Bitcoin – which tends to set the pace for the overall crypto market – it’s still in good health, sitting way above its long term trendline.
Now – nothing is set in stone. The market gods could well make fools of us yet… 🤡
But with the current macro backdrop, these assets are looking ‘cheaper’ than they are ‘overpriced’ in our eyes.
If we weren't already all-in, we would be buying.
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COTD: THE SLOPE OF ENLIGHTENMENT 🧘
This is the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ chart, which is a crypto-fied version of a chart used to explain the Dunning Kruger Effect 👇
Source: Ryan Watkins *We moved memecoins closer to the Trough of Disillusionment
The basic gist of both is that, when learning/building something new, most people/projects tend to follow this pattern:
- You have an idea (you’re optimistic)
- You start building with no experience and high confidence (you’re cocky)
- You learn how little you know, and how hard it is to reach your goals (you get schooled)
- Humbled, you start to rebuild your confidence through real experience (you get to work)
- After years of learning / failing / building, your core vision is realized (you’re done!)
Now, we’re showing you this chart for two reasons…
First – it shows just how early we all are to crypto. ⏰
Bitcoin is the only project to have well and truly realized/completed its core vision – that’s super exciting from an investment standpoint!
Second – If there’s a sector/project that has proven itself to:
- Be a good idea
- Not be total vaporware
- Have solid fundamentals (enough to endure)
Catching them in Step 3 (the ‘Trough of Disillusionment’) can be like finding a Gucci bag in a bargain bin! 👜
All winning sectors/projects have had to trudge through the Trough of Disillusionment, in order to reach the Slope of Enlightenment, and begin growing again.
Some won’t make it out – many will die in the Trough of Disillusionment…
But if you can identify enduring sectors/projects (that are well poised to make the leap) while they’re at their lowest, most hype-deflated states – that’s where the opportunity lies!
(Use it to your advantage! 🫡)
IS $ETH DEAD, OR ARE WE VALUING IT WRONG? 🎙️
$ETH is down 40% since its high back in March…
Down 52% against Bitcoin since September 2022…
While $SOL has outperformed $ETH by 700% since December 2022…
So is $ETH dead – or are we valuing it wrong?
Today on The Milk Road Show, Lark Davis and our very own Kyle Reidhead dive into exactly that – covering:
- The role of L2s in Ethereum's ecosystem 🎭
- A close examination of Ethereum's metrics 🕵🏼
- What can be expected from Ethereum in this cycle 🔄
It’s a doozy! Don’t miss it 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
ZKB, one of Switzerland's largest banks, is entering the crypto market by offering services for institutional clients. This move shows a significant step towards integrating traditional finance with cryptocurrencies.
Polygon has upgraded its $MATIC token to $POL, boosting utility for gas fees, staking, and cross-chain operations. The upgrade is part of Polygon 2.0, aiming to improve network scalability and attract more validators.
Donald Trump launched World Liberty Financial, a DeFi lending platform, but it's already facing scrutiny. The project is linked to a $2M DeFi hack, and team members have controversial histories, raising concerns about its legitimacy.
Uniswap Labs has been fined $175,000 by the CFTC for offering illegal crypto derivatives. The penalty emphasizes growing regulatory scrutiny on decentralized finance and platforms like Uniswap.
Join forces with the Milk Man! We’re looking for a Twitter Specialist + Content Creator who can mix crypto knowledge with top-notch tweets. Think you’re the one? Apply today and let’s get this show on the road!
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
