GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that mediates tensions between your favorite tech n’ finance companies! (Read the first article, it’ll make sense.)
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ OpenAI isn’t stoked w/ Robinhood
- ✍️ Zero interest rate cuts this year?
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin $200k Target Explained, Solana ETF Day 1 & July Crypto Outlook w/ Kelly Kellam
- 🍪 Numbers for day 1 are in
dYdX is one of the best places to trade perps and options onchain. Start trading on dYdX now!
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
OPENAI ISN’T STOKED W/ ROBINHOOD 🥴
You know that one friend you have with a penchant for ruining a good time?
You’re cooking bacon → they remind you it’s carcinogenic.
You start waxing poetic about Natalie Imbruglia’s ‘Torn’ → they remind you it’s a cover.
You’re watching Free Willy → they mention that the orca playing Willy died an early death.
They’re not wrong. But they’re harshing your vibe.
That’s OpenAI right now – and they’re taking aim at Robinhood’s tokenized OpenAI shares:
(Again – they’re not wrong. But, vibe = harshed.)
We’re not fluent in securities law, but our understanding of what they’re getting at here is – buying a tokenized share of OpenAI from Robinhood is kind of a “trust me bro” deal, meaning:
1/ You’re backed by Robinhood, not US securities laws
When you buy a tokenized share of OpenAI, you’re not buying an actual US security – you’re just trusting that Robinhood is backing these tokens with real shares.
Potential risk: if Robinhood fails to maintain the backing, your tokens could lose their value.
2/ You’re selling tokens, not equity
When you go to sell, Robinhood has to find a buyer for the token, not the actual shares (as transfer of the underlying stock has to be approved by OpenAI).
Potential risk: this could create liquidity issues if there are no buyers for the tokens (dumping the price), especially in stressed market conditions.
3/ Meeting future demand could become an issue
If OpenAI wants, they can stop Robinhood from acquiring new shares, as they have to approve all transfers.
Potential risk: if OpenAI isn’t cool with this continuing, they can actively try to squash Robinhood’s tokenization efforts.
Need a table breaking that (and more) down? Here, have a table:
Personally – if we wanted price exposure to certain private equities, like OpenAI, we’d be happy to trust Robinhood to do it honestly and back these shares 1-to-1.
(The downside risk for them ‘doing a dodgy’, far outweighs the upside.)
That said: we’d need to carefully weigh the potential risks that are out of Robinhood’s hands – like the possibility of liquidity issues, and OpenAI putting the kibosh on it all.
Would you buy tokenized private shares (like OpenAI) from Robinhood?
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WE JUST GOT ONE STEP CLOSER TO SEEING ZERO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR 😩
Ok, same analogy from the last article’s intro – except this time, we’ll be playing the role of the wet blanket.
Guess what! The labor market has gotten much stronger than expected. 👇
And that’s a good thing!
…right?
Lemme rain on your parade real quick:
A stronger jobs report = less reason for the Fed to cut rates.
Rate cuts are one of the Fed’s main weapons when trying to counteract a weakening economy.
They lower interest rates → loans/credit repayments get cheaper → folks have more disposable income/take out more loans → this injection of cash boosts the economy/asset prices.
…problem is, job growth is up.
Which indicates the economy is strengthening – giving the Fed less reasons to cut rates.
And CME’s prediction data is backing that up – their total expected cuts for 2025 just flipped from 3 being the most likely, to 2. 👇
Hell – many big-brained pundits, like Eric Balchunas, expect the economy will continue growing enough that we see ZERO cuts in 2025. 👇
And there you have it!
Blanket: wet. Mood: dampened.
*bows*
P.S. Want a breakdown of the current crypto market and where it’s headed in the coming months? Our PRO Team is working on exactly that, as we speak.
Go PRO here to get it sent straight to your inbox, this Saturday.
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
You know what? Rate cuts, shmate cuts.
They’re just one piece of the larger puzzle. Let’s broaden our view and take a look at the crypto market cycle indicators.
(‘Cause knowing where we are in the crypto cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.)
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
- Full access to the 6 bull market peak indicators above to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late 📈
- Weekly reports that help you spot early trends, navigate the markets by limiting risk & catch those sweet cha-ching moments 💰
- Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. 🫂
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PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
One account to rule them all. We dropped an article on Bitget’s Unified Trading Account (UTA) that lets you trade spot, futures and margin all from one place.*
It’s finally happened. Strategy is facing a lawsuit alleging it misled investors about its Bitcoin strategy and risks. We all saw this coming.
Numbers for day 1 are in. The first US Solana staking ETF sees $12M in inflows. Tiny flows but still a step in the right direction.
Jupiter launches JUP Studio, their own token creation lab. The token launchpad space on Solana is getting crowded.
US debt is only growing. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is set to add more than $4T in govt debt.
Top-up, purchase and withdrawal fees? Nope. Not when you use your MoonPay Balance. Get the MoonPay app and start growing your crypto, without the pesky fees!**
*this is sponsored content. ** this is partner content.
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