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GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter as powerful as Hurricane Debby, but delivering insights instead of downpours.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ It wasn’t that big of a dip
- 📊 COTD: Weekly crypto fund flows
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙 The Milk Road Show: 5 Reasons Why the Crypto Market Crashed w/ Lark Davis
- 🍪 Morgan Stanley advisors can now market Bitcoin
Prices as of 9:30AM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
IT WASN’T EVEN THAT BIG A DIP ⏬
Bitcoin dropped 30% during the last week and the Milk Man is here to ask the question: Was it really that bad? 🤨 I know it felt terrible, it was a gut-wrenching weekend for most crypto investors. 🤢 In the grand history of crypto, this weekend’s pullback was more of a gentle hiccup than a full-blown catastrophe. If you’re new to the crypto rodeo, here’s the deal:
Crypto markets are notorious for those agonizing 70-90% pullbacks during bear markets—like a bad hangover after a wild party.
But hey, even bull markets love a good plot twist with quick and sharp pullbacks. It's part of the game! To ride these crypto waves and snag those sweet, sweet gains, you’ve got to make peace with the volatility. ☯️ The secret sauce to surviving these market jolts is zooming out.
When you see your portfolio take a dive, take a step back and remember: these swings are as normal as your morning cup of joe. ☕ That’s why we’re going to hop into our time machine and revisit some of the biggest drops from previous bull markets. 🐂
1/ 2011-2013 bull market
Back in the day (2013), when $BTC was just a wee lad, we saw a gut-wrenching dip of 82%! Ouch, right?
BUT, hold your horses because $BTC then went on to skyrocket 15x before the end of the year. 🚀
2/ 2015-2017 bull market
Fast forward to the next thrilling journey.
In 2015 and 2016, Bitcoin served up a triple dip whammy: a 37% sell-off, a 41% nosedive, and another 40% dip. 📉
And 2017 wasn’t any different…
This year tested investors' nerves with four pullbacks of at least 30%.
Many sold in fear, only to buy back in higher… 😵💫
But those who held from the beginning of 2015 through to the end of 2017 saw $BTC climb from around $300 to almost $20,000.
That’s a 66x return. 😱
3/ 2019-2021 bull market
Still not convinced? Let's go through one more epic run.
Between July 2019 and March 2020 $BTC saw corrections of 53% and 63%
Just months later, $BTC began its rise from $4,000 to $69,000.
That’s finding some serious gains by not giving up in a pullback! Interestingly, the above chart from 2020 looks eerily similar to what has transpired here in 2024: a long drawn out pullback, a recovery and then another quick and sharp pullback.
Bitcoin ended up doing a 17x from it’s low last time, we wonder what will happen this time around 👀 Whatever happens, when we look back at historical pullbacks during bull runs, it almost always pays off to hold through them (or even add a little to your bags if you can find some extra change behind the couch cushions). 🛋️ P.S. it’s not easy to navigate these waters alone, instead, let the Milk Road PRO team do it for you.
Earlier this year they wrote a PRO report titled: “Are you ready for a 30% pullback”. If you were a PRO member, you would have been prepared and ready to go for what happened this weekend. Knowledge is power, the PRO team is here to put the power back in your hands!
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COTD: WEEKLY CRYPTO FUND FLOWS 📊
Batten down the hatches, crypto sailors! This week, the seas of the digital asset world were choppy, with total outflows reaching $528M.
As the market finds itself in turbulent waters, let's see which ships managed to stay afloat and which ones took on a little water.
Grab your life jackets and let's dive in! 🚢
Here's the breakdown:
- Bitcoin ($BTC): The mighty Bitcoin faced its first major outflow in five weeks, totaling a jaw-dropping $400M. It's like watching your favorite action hero take a hit but knowing they'll bounce back stronger! 💪
- Ethereum ($ETH): Things got a bit rocky with $146M heading for the exits. Since the ETF launch, Ethereum's net outflows have hit $430M. It seems like $ETH might need a pep talk—or a new marketing strategy. 😬
Regional rundown:
- The US: Led the charge in outflows with a hefty $531M. Maybe investors are prepping for a wild ride through the upcoming election season or just trying to stay one step ahead of the Fed. 🇺🇸
- Germany & Hong Kong: Also joined the outflow party with $12M and $27M respectively. 🇩🇪🇭🇰
- Canada & Switzerland: These folks saw the dip as a chance to stack some crypto, with inflows of $17M and $28M. 🇨🇦🇨🇭
Markets can be unpredictable, just like navigating uncharted waters, and that's part of what makes crypto exciting!
Whether you're holding steady or riding the waves, keep your eyes on the prize and your portfolio diversified. 🏆
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
Crypto moves in cycles, and knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 5 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Tuesday, we update these 5 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
