GM this is Milk Road PRO, your sherpa through the wild untrodden landscape of crypto & global trade wars.
Bull market or bear market? That is the question.
Today we sit in some of the most uncertain times we’ve seen in markets (and geopolitics) in many years.
A global trade war, with a focus on the 2 most powerful economies in the world (USA & China), has put markets and global economies into a downward spiral of fear and confusion.
What happens next is anyone's guess, considering everything can change on a whim from the decisions of two men: President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
While I cannot predict the exact outcome, today I’m going to attempt to provide some clarity in all the chaos.
Right now everyone else is focusing on tariffs and a trade war, but let’s not forget that the world continues to go round and economies still continue to function. What this means is that there is still data and charts that we can look at to understand where things are heading.
Of course, the result of the trade negotiations will dictate the final outcome of markets, so we must weigh the various scenarios with our analysis.
But first, let’s forget about the trade war and the tariffs (I know it’s not easy to do), I will get to that at the end of the report.
For now, let’s focus on what we know and what we can track.
In this report, I aim to answer the questions:
- Will the bull market continue and if so, when?
- Will we get an alt season, or are they cooked?
- What scenarios could play out with the trade war and how does that impact assets?
- What is the best asset to buy today?
P.S. - We’re hosting a PRO AMA next week — scroll to the bottom for more info 👀
Let’s start with a chart of the ISM (aka the business cycle).
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE BUSINESS CYCLE?
We know that the price of Bitcoin, crypto and most other assets, correlate along with the business cycle.
If you want to understand the direction of markets, it’s imperative that you understand the direction of the business cycle (learn more about the ISM and the business cycle here).
When the business cycle bottoms and begins to move upwards, Bitcoin and crypto assets begin to rise.
When the ISM is rising but is below 50, Bitcoin outperforms.
When the ISM passes 50, this is when altcoins historically start to outperform.
And finally, when the ISM tops and heads lower, we typically go into a +12-month bear market where both Bitcoin and altcoins pullback significantly.
For context, here’s the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin (aka altcoins). Its big moves always track the moments that ISM peaks above 50.
This bull market has been a unique one because it is now almost 2 years since the ISM bottomed out and we have yet to reach a sustained ISM above 50.
Many people are saying: “the real bull market hasn’t started yet”, though I’m not sure most people realize it’s because the ISM has not sustained a break above 50 to the upside.
Now, of course the current global trade war will impact the ISM, but setting that aside for a moment, the ISM has been in a sideways chop for 29 months now, starting well before the trade war started.
This is very unusual and is what has been holding back crypto from having its typical fireworks style bull market.
So the question we need to answer is why? Why isn’t the ISM increasing as it normally does after it bottoms?
Uh, Oh… 😧 The rest of this report is exclusive to Milk Road PRO members!
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WHAT’S LEFT INSIDE? 👀
- Is the bull run still on the horizon or is it time to batten down the hatches?
- Which assets should we be allocating to right now (and are any of them alts)?
- We lay out the best case/worst case outcomes of the current trade war
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