GM. This is Milk Road. Instead of a cold plunge, 30 minutes of meditation, 2 cups of coffee, and a slap from your girlfriend, we wake you up with 3 minutes of crypto news. Safer and less painful.
Crypto is in the green again. Life is good. Let's boogie.
- Will BTC be worth $1M in 90 days?
- The Great Decoupling is happening
- Air Force 1 NFTs coming soon
Today's edition is brought to you by FirstBatch ID, a decentralized identity that gives you control over your online experience.
WILL BITCOIN BE WORTH $1M IN 90 DAYS?
Everyone was talking about one thing this weekend… Balaji’s $1M Bitcoin Bets.
If you don’t know Balaji, he:
- Sold his genetic testing company for $300M+ and later was CTO of Coinbase
- Predicted stuff like: how COVID-19 would play out (lock-downs, etc.) and how pseudonyms would become a huge trend (i.e. separating real & digital identities)
- Reads textbooks for fun (nerd)
When Balaji speaks, people stop, drop, and roll to listen. And now, he’s back with another prediction...
1 Bitcoin will be worth $1M+ in 90 days. And he’s backing up his talk by making two separate million-dollar bets that it will happen:
Balaji’s new nickname is “Mr. I-Put-My-Money-Where-My-Mouth-Is.”
So, why is Balaji so confident? Let’s dive in…
1/ U.S. banks are in trouble. Over the last few weeks, big banks like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate all collapsed.
Balaji thinks this is just the tip of the iceberg, as economists have found that 185+ other banks may be prone to similar risks, which could lead to…
2/ The U.S. government printing more money to save banks. With SVB, Signature, and Silvergate all falling within a week, the U.S. Federal Reserve created a new bank backstop program to prevent any more big failures.
J.P. Morgan estimates that the Fed could end up injecting up to $2T in new liquidity into the system.
Balaji believes that trillions of new dollars being printed will devalue the dollar and…
3/ This will lead to hyperinflation. This is when prices of services and goods skyrocket, while the value of the dollar plunges.
In other words, everything gets more expensive and we all get poorer. It’s a double whammy.
Hyperinflation happens fast, but Balaji argues that it’s even faster in today’s world. In the age of social media, viral tweets spread faster than wildfire, and we’ve seen it accelerate things like bank runs (i.e. Silicon Valley Bank saw $42B worth of withdrawals in 24h).
Balaji thinks all of this will lead to...
4/ People investing in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. With the value of the dollar plummeting, people will look towards an alternative asset to hedge against inflation.
Balaji believes BTC will be that asset, which will lead to a huge pump in Bitcoin's price.
More people buying Bitcoin = more buy pressure = Bitcoin to $1M (?)
So, do people agree with Balaji? Let's look at some of the best takes from Twitter...
There’s a < 1% chance BTC is > $1m in 90 days But there’s a very reasonable chance Balaji is at least directionally correct, and we see significantly increased adoption of BTC over the next few months It’s probably a self fulfilling prophecy at this point Memes rule the world
— Zeneca (🔮,🔥) (@Zeneca)9:24 AM • Mar 19, 2023
people are mocking Balaji, but his point is something very real that most still don't understand: If people on the global internet collectively decided to pump BTC to $1M, they absolutely could, and it could happen extremely quickly. 21M is not a lot. When, not if.
— Lyle Pratt (@lylepratt)10:23 PM • Mar 17, 2023
If you assume Balaji has $100m in bitcoin and his marketing stunt sends bitcoin from $27k to $30k, he generates ~$11m in world economic value and wins global attention. $2m to $11m and free global marketing for himself and bitcoin in 90 days is good business if you can get it.
— Alex Adelman (@alexadelman)3:00 PM • Mar 19, 2023
Milk Road Take: We’re big fans of Balaji and think he’s brilliant, but…
This might be one of the dumbest bets we’ve ever seen. We would’ve been comfortable betting the house on the other side of this bet.
And it isn’t because we completely disagree with the reasoning, it’s just the timing & magnitude of the prediction that we disagree with.
In order for Balaji to win, Bitcoin would need to soar from $27.5k → $1M in 90 days. There's a better chance that Princeton wins the March Madness tournament than Bitcoin 36x'ing in 90 days.
It's a crazy bet. But there might be a Method for Balaji’s Madness: it got everyone's attention.
If Balaji said BTC's price would only hit $100k or if he only bet $100k on it, it wouldn't have turned as many heads or made the news. But there's something about $1M that gets everyone's attention. (It's provocative, it gets the people going.)
Plus - he also set up a $1M contest for the best memes, graphs, charts, etc. that help raise the alarm on the issue. ($1,000 will go to the best 1,000 graphics.)
Who knows if Balaji will be right (again), but this looks like his Paul Revere moment.
Btw, here's the meme we're submitting...
PERSONALIZE YOUR FEED WITH A.I
I love the internet because every piece of content is on the tip of my fingers.
One minute I’m reading a thread about a new blockchain protocol and the next minute I’m watching a TikTok about Warren Buffet.
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Soon, you’ll be able to use your FID to personalize your favorite dApps, including Decentralized Socials, NFT Marketplaces, and more.
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Here’s Gravitate - FirstBatch’s feed curator that utilizes AI to serve you the most relevant content imaginable while still preserving your privacy.
CRYPTO IS DECOUPLING FROM STOCKS
Crypto investors stare at different charts all day long. Most of them are boring and hard to understand. (booo!)
But one of our favorites is the NASDAQ 100 vs Bitcoin price correlation.
Why do we like it? Because it tells us how closely correlated crypto prices and stock prices are.
Well, check it out - according to CoinShares, the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ100 is at a 1-year low.
Why this matters: Many investors argue that Bitcoin can't serve as a hedge against inflation if the price movements always mimic the stock market.
And over the last year, that's been the case. Crypto and stock prices have been doing the Tango, with stocks leading the dance.
But now it seems that crypto is starting to dance to its own beat (probably the Dougie).
Many are calling it the Great Decoupling. This might make it more appealing to investors that are looking for an interest-rate-sensitive asset.
We'll see if the trend continues.
BITE-SIZED TREATS
Nike is launching its first Nike Air Force 1 sneakers tied to NFTs. Only people that own the NFT will be able to 🎵"get to stompin' in these Air Force 1s"🎵
Microsoft is reportedly working on its own crypto wallet to integrate into the Microsoft Edge web browser. The name of the crypto wallet? Crypto Wallet. (Seriously, you can't make this sh*t up... )
Coinbase is exploring setting up a separate crypto trading platform outside of the U.S. What scares exchanges more than the Boogeyman? Regulators. And looks like they've pushed the largest crypto exchange in the U.S. to start looking elsewhere...👀
It's being reported that Harvest Keeper, a new "AI-powered" app, is a rug pull and has stolen ~$1M from users. Stay safe out there Roaders, always DYOR.
MILKY MEMES
🤣🤣
That's a wrap for today. Meet us on Twitter to talk all about it. It’s kinda like a family BBQ but better - no screaming kids, awkward photos, or drunk uncles telling weird stories(@MilkRoadDaily)
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A ROADER'S REVIEW
VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
Happy Monday let's throw them deuces up
— Milk Road (@MilkRoadDaily)12:04 PM • Mar 20, 2023
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
