🥛 Checking the markets pulse: July 2025 🩺

GM, this is Milk Road PRO. Time for our Monthly Market Pulse report — your regular dose of market intelligence that cuts through the noise and focuses on what actually matters.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock this past month, you’re probably just as excited as we are.

Why?

Because everything’s lining up. We’re now seeing positive news and headlines about crypto almost every day and it’s getting harder and harder to ignore.

But here’s the thing: these aren’t just short-term hype cycles. 

The impact of all this is long-term. The shift in crypto adoption isn’t something that might happen — it’s already happening, and it’s picking up speed.

And when you throw in a positive macro outlook for the next few months, it all adds up to one strong setup.

PS: Check out our in-depth macro outlook here for all the details.

Now think ahead: how will you look back on this moment five years from now?

Our guess? You’ll probably say something like, “It was so obvious back then — just look at all the companies and institutions getting involved and building on these networks.”

How unreal does that sound to you? 

Because to us, it feels very real — and we’re genuinely excited to be right here, witnessing it all unfold.

So here's your monthly market health check-up, complete with the charts and metrics that matter most. 

Plus, we'll reveal our $1K all-in allocation to our PRO portfolio.

Oh and even better, the PRO team recorded a 1 hour internal research meeting discussing the details of this report and our investment framework based on the findings. 

PRO members can watch it here.

Quick reminder: We're keeping this short and punchy since we covered the metric basics in our first Market Pulse report. Today it's all about what's happening right now and what it means for your portfolio.

Ok, let's not waste anymore time and get right into it! 👇

MACRO

We’re starting with macro because it sets the tone for everything else.

The Business Cycle

First we have to look at the business cycle, as it is the foundation of how we understand the trend and direction of markets. 

If you’re new here, learn more about how the business cycle impacts crypto markets here.

The chart below shows the ISM, which gives us a pretty solid clue about where we are in that cycle right now.

The ISM is just under the 50 mark, sitting at 49. The latest reading finally ticked up a bit, so we might be seeing the start of a turnaround.

Just a heads-up: the summer season, often called the "banana zone," usually kicks off when the ISM climbs above 50. We're getting close.

But it’s not just ISM giving us a sense of where we are in the cycle — global liquidity plays a big role too.

Global Liquidity

If you're not sure why, take a look at this chart showing the link between global liquidity (shifted 3 months ahead) and $BTC prices.

The correlation here is pretty clear. And if you think global liquidity has already gone too far, let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

This chart shows how global liquidity and Bitcoin prices have changed over time.

Liquidity has been rising at a faster pace recently, but $BTC hasn't caught up yet. The problem is that the rate of change is usually similar for both. 

That means $BTC might have some catching up to do.

But let’s set $BTC aside for a moment. This is actually a bigger signal for the whole crypto market. When liquidity starts flowing faster, it usually creates the kind of environment where altcoins tend to thrive too.

And in this report, we’ll find out if that’s already starting to happen or not.

Alright, let’s shift over to Truflation.

Truflation

You’ve probably seen the inflation numbers that governments report, but Truflation gives a real-time look at what prices are actually doing (instead of using trailing data.)

Real inflation closed the month at 2.07%, just a touch above the Fed’s 2% target — which is a good sign. Higher numbers could’ve delayed upcoming rate cuts.

Now there is a 90% chance of anywhere from 2-4 cuts this year. 

Looks like several rate cuts are on the table, and it's still unclear if the market has fully accounted for that yet.

With Trump putting more pressure on the Fed to be more aggressive, there’s a good chance these probabilities shift toward even more cuts. 

👉 From a macro perspective, things are looking pretty bullish overall.

This is just a quick glimpse into the bigger picture.

We went much deeper into the macro trends in our latest PRO report, which you can check out here.

If all the stars are lining up, it makes sense to expect risk asset prices to start moving up…

Let’s see if that’s how it plays out.

PERFORMANCE

Asset Classes

We want to see and compare how some major investment classes have been performing.

Stocks, measured by the S&P 500, were the top performers last month, gaining 4.75%. 

$BTC also finished in the green and even more importantly, it boosted its dominance in the crypto space. You can see that by comparing Bitcoin’s performance to the total crypto market.

👉 Given that there was a seemingly real chance of a potential WWIII, the performance of both stocks and crypto was surprisingly strong and honestly, pretty impressive.

Yes, crypto did take a sharp dip — but it bounced back fast in a classic V-shaped recovery, offering some pretty attractive discounts for a brief moment.

Gold ended up as the loser of the month, down 1.91%, giving back some of the momentum it had built earlier this year.

The gap between stocks and crypto vs. gold isn’t huge just yet, but we think that’s about to change and the gap is likely to keep growing from here.

Why? Because it’s starting to feel more and more like we’re entering a risk-on environment — and that usually favors stocks and crypto, not gold. 🥳

So if crypto is gearing up for a move, let’s see if we can spot some common narratives, identify which coins are already picking up momentum, and which ones might be running out of gas.