🥛 Crypto: The lifeboat in a sinking world 😰
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GM. This is Milk Road. The newsletter that adds Tajin to the rim of your crypto news cocktail.
(Keeping things extra spicy – just the way you like it!)
Here’s what we got for you today:
✍️ Crypto is now the only safe option for many people/nations
✍️ VanEck predicts $BTC could hit $1.1 quadrillion by 2050
🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Inside the Milk Road PRO AMA
🍪 Aave Labs and Sky have partnered to launch the Sky Aave Force initiative
CRYPTO IS NOW THE ONLY SAFE OPTION FOR MANY PEOPLE/NATIONS 😰
Our uncle Steve won’t go to the doctor unless he ab-so-lute-ly needs to.
The man could have an arrow through his leg – and as long as it hadn’t hit any arteries – he’d sooner fix it with a bottle of disinfectant and a home sewing kit.
Major crypto adoption can often follow a similar path – where people aren’t moving to decentralized systems by choice, but because there are no other safe/reliable options. ⚠️
We just witnessed it over the weekend, when X/Twitter was banned in Brazil – resulting in its decentralized alternative, BlueSky, growing its user count by 1 million people in three days, and increasing its traffic by 15x in the same time period.
On the surface, it ain’t that big of a deal – but zoom out and you’ll see that “adoption by way of duress” has been a method of major growth, even more than you might think…
1/ 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was a catalyst for the creation of Bitcoin.
Satoshi Nakamoto introduced the world to Bitcoin in the wake of the GFC, even going as far as leaving a hidden nod to the importance of scarce digital assets within the Bitcoin genesis block:
2/ 2012-13 The Cypriot (Cyprus) financial crisis led to two massive bank failures.
As the country’s economy collapsed and stagnated over the following decade, citizens turned to blockchain to protect their wealth – leading to Cyprus becoming a global crypto hub.
3/ 2017-2020 global central banks printed a whole bunch of money, devaluing their currencies.
In both instances, a wave of fresh cash entered the financial system.
Where did folks choose to put a solid chunk of that money that found its way into their pockets? Crypto.
4/ 2024 Crypto adoption in Argentina soars amid a 276% inflation spike.
With Argentina in the lead, Binance’s list of top visitors by country is dominated by nations that are either experiencing extreme inflation, at war, facing global banking sanctions, or some mix of those.
5/ 2024: Russia legalizes crypto for international trade to bypass sanctions
Speaking of war and global banking sanctions…Russia was booted from SWIFT (the system that banks use to transfer money internationally).
As a result:
Here’s how we’d frame all of this:
Ever noticed how the first drop of water to make its way down a cold bottle cuts a distinct track? Then every other water drop that follows wants to trace the same path?
That’s because it's the path of least resistance.
The same thing appears to be happening in the global financial world.
As centralized systems begin to fail, the money contained within them flows down the path of least resistance, towards decentralized solutions. 😎
It’s kinda grim – and we wish it didn’t have to happen.
But – glass half full: It’s nice to know we all have a shared life raft waiting for us if/when we need it.
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VANECK PREDICTS $BTC COULD HIT $1.1 QUADRILLION BY 2050 😳
Babe, wake up!
New Bitcoin price predictions just dropped from VanEck…
(And their best case prediction is WILD!)
Ok, so VanEck added a big number to a spreadsheet and told the world about it…anyone can do that.
(Our cousin Frank claimed he was going to be a “billionaire pro wrestler by the age of 25” – and he’s now comfortably in his 30’s, living with his mom).
The difference between Frank and the folks over at VanEck is that VanEck pays an army of nerds to research and back these potential targets.
Here’s their 3 key reasonings:
1/ The declining global GDP share of major economies such as the US, EU, UK, and Japan will likely trigger a shift towards alternative reserve assets.
…and seeing as $BTC is a scarce asset, with a track record of appreciating over time (~41,000% over the past decade), VanEck probably sees it as a prime candidate for those reserves.
2/ This adoption could be further fueled by concerns over deficit spending and geopolitical instability.
Translation: Bitcoin is open for use to anyone (governments can’t block other nation states from using it) and is immune to being devalued by money printing.
In fact, $BTC thrives because of money printing! 🖨️
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21M coins, so once fiat is converted into Bitcoin, the value cannot be watered down with any unexpected $BTC printing.
3/ VanEck forecasts $BTC could settle 10% of international transactions and 5% of domestic.
For context, in 2023 – Fedwire (the network most global banks use for wire transfers) processed $1.08Q in transaction volume (Q is for quadrillion!).
Ok, now – if you weren’t already bouncing off the walls with nervous excitement – here’re some extra tid-bits we collected, that get progressively wilder as they go along…
🚀 VanEck projects that Bitcoin L2s could collectively be valued at $7.6T (~12% of Bitcoin’s total value in their base case).
🚀 Their base case of $2,910,345 would mean a $61T market cap for $BTC.
🚀 While the best case of $52,386,207 would mean a – wait for it – $1.1 QUADRILLION market cap for $BTC.
…wow, we did it!
We well and truly made it into ‘moon-boy’ territory. 🌕
We typically try to steer clear of this place – so let’s balance things out, by acknowledging a couple things:
You could employ the best financial researchers in the world, and you’d still be making a whole bunch of hand-wavey assumptions when forecasting on this kind of time scale.
We whole-heartedly believe in the future of crypto, and expect it to grow exponentially over the coming decades – but then again, Frank felt the same way about his wrestling career!
The takeaway:
Learn what you can from these kinds of well-researched decades-long predictions – but always take them with a grain of salt. 🧂
WE JUST MADE OUR PRIVATE AMA, PUBLIC 🤫
Ok, this stays between us, yeah? Good.
So last week we hosted a private AMA between our PRO Team and Milk Road PRO members…and as far as alpha was concerned – it went off!
So we cut a deal with the PRO Team…
We promised to stop calling them “nerds” and “chart-boys” for a whole month, if it meant we could release the AMA as an episode on The Milk Road Show (and they agreed)!
Here’s just some of what you’ll get in this episode:
Are we witnessing a soft landing? 🛬
What are the strategies to time a market exit? 🔚
What would happen to prices if we were to enter a recession? 📉
Was the Q2 decline a slight setback, or major shift in investor sentiment? 🔄
Click below to watch it now! 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
What’s going on here?
Last time we checked, crypto was meant to be ‘number go up’ technology, not ‘number grind sideways’…
Turns out it’s all par-for-the-course at this point in the crypto cycle (which is reassuring).
In fact, knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 5 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Tuesday, we update these 5 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
Full access to the 5 bull market peak indicators above. 👆
Full access to the Milk Road PRO Portfolio. 📈
Our weekly reports that help you invest successfully in crypto. 💰
Full access to the Milk Road PRO community. 🫂
50% off Milk Road's NEW crypto investing masterclass.
PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Aave Labs and Sky have partnered to launch the Sky Aave Force initiative, merging DeFi with traditional finance. This collaboration aims to boost liquidity and accessibility in decentralized finance through new tokens and incentive programs.
Ripple is enhancing its blockchain offerings by integrating Ethereum-compatible smart contracts. This strategy seeks to be broadening its appeal to developers and expanding its use cases in decentralized finance and beyond.
Matter Labs has reduced its workforce by 16% due to declining demand for its ZKsync Era platform. The company is shifting its focus to meet the evolving needs of its user base and market conditions.
The SEC charged and settled with Galois Capital for failing to properly safeguard client assets. The firm did not admit to or deny the charges, but the settlement highlights ongoing regulatory scrutiny in crypto asset management.
Join forces with the Milk Man! We’re looking for a Twitter Specialist + Content Creator who can mix crypto knowledge with top-notch tweets. Think you’re the one? Apply today and let’s get this show on the road!
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
