🥛 Wen altcoin szn? (Is it time to load up?) 🚚
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GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that’s the Pippen to your Jordan — always there with the assist!
Here’s what we got for you today:
✍️ Wen altcoin szn?
✍️ Risk appetite is down… time to get greedy?
🥛 PRO portfolio updates
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Perfect Storm for a Crypto Bull Run? w/ Kyle Reidhead
🍪 Tron’s SunPump platform has overtaken Solana’s Pump.Fun
WEN ALTCOIN SZN? 📈
Altcoin Season:
It's like Christmas, but with more volatility.
(And the ugly sweaters have all been swapped out for Patagonia vests).
It’s that magical time of year when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over the trailing 90 days. 🚀
Today, we're diving into three well-basted, extra-juicy charts to see if we're on the brink of Altcoin Season.
1/ Bitcoin season vs. Altcoin season 🥊
This chart tracks the performance of Bitcoin relative to Altcoins.
→ If the index falls below 25, it's Bitcoin Season baaaby!
→ Once it climbs above 75, welcome to Altcoin Season, population: you.
Right now, we're still officially in Bitcoin Season…
$BTC is holding on to the title – but only just – with the index indicator sitting at 22 👇
The takeaway: Altcoins are on sale right now! But that sale could soon be ending.
2/ Speculation index 🔍
This metric is basically a big neon sign flashing “BUY ALTCOINS!” that only nerds can see.
Good news is: We were making replica lightsabers late into our teen years (instead of, idk, dating?) so we can read it just fine – allow us to translate…
The speculation index essentially shows what percent of Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin on a 90-day average.
The lower the percentage, the less money is being thrown into Alts – meaning at 10% they could be undervalued and primed for purchase.
3/ Post-halving altcoin trends 🔪
Q: What would happen if you took that “BUY ALTCOINS!” sign from the previous section, and turned the brightness setting up to ‘light of a thousand suns”?
A: You’d get this lil’ nugget of information:
Right now, we’re only 125 days past the halving, which means we’ve got * checks notes * 421 days of potential Altcoin growth in front of us!
Is it going to be a smooth ride up to the top of the roller coaster? Hell no.
If this pattern repeats itself again, we’ll have all sorts of blind dips, loops, and climbs ahead of us. 🎢
The Milk Man’s strategy?
If we weren’t already all-in on crypto, we would be buying into the bleed and checking back in 421 days.
Though if you don’t have a huge appetite for risk, it wouldn’t hurt to wait for confirmation that the bull market is back!
Just don't wait too long, otherwise you’ll end up buying the top with the rest of retail.
P.S. Please don’t tell anyone about the replica lightsabers thing (that was just between us).
P.P.S. Wondering what Altcoin Season catalysts to look out for over the next 421 days?
To start, you might want to:
Check what’s happening with the US dollar 💵
Scan economic data for any warning signs ⚠️
Build a plan, so you can navigate the next few months 📝
Don’t worry! We’ve done your homework for you – Jay Hamilton and Kyle Reidhead dedicated this morning’s episode of The Milk Road Show to covering all of the above!
Click below to watch it now: 👇️
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
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RISK APPETITE IS DOWN… TIME TO GET GREEDY? 🤔
Market psychology is a helluva drug!
The instructions on the tin couldn’t be any clearer for investors: “buy low, sell high.”
(Yet 95% of traders lose money).
Why? Cause when prices are in the toilet and everyone’s losing money, the FOMO that drives most traders to buy-in is almost non-existent.
Good news is: By rewiring our thought processes, we can set ourselves up for success! 🙌
So today, the Milk Man is serving up two extra charts in an attempt to save you from yourself, and avoid the age-old tradition of buying the top of Alt Season.
Check out the chart below: 👇
If the squiggly line is above 0, it means global investors are risk-on (and in greater degrees the closer they get to 100). Below 0, the inverse is true.
Here’s that same data broken out by region, from 2022 to today:
So what’re the numbers telling us?
In early August, investors (globally) went risk-off for the first time since early-mid 2022, and are now bouncing back into risk – but only just, at +2 (up from -19), with the US (+4) and Japan (+17) leading the charge.
Now here’s the potential setup…
This mass-exodus from risk assets was triggered by the Yen carry trade unwinding (covered here) – in which the market gave a collective “Mama mia – we might be heading into a recession!” and moved into safer assets.
For those with an appetite for risk, the question to ask now is:
What if we DON’T go into recession?
A lot of people could get caught off guard – finding themselves sidelined and underexposed to risk.
If/when positive macro headwinds pump liquidity (fresh cash) into the system, it could float risk assets (like Altcoins), and drive some good old fashioned FOMO-driven buying.
That’s the potential opportunity here: To get in before that madness takes hold. ☝️
Is it a lock? Absolutely not.
Again – these kinds of investments are only suited to investors with a clear appetite for risk.
Point is: If you are one of those investors, it’s always best to follow the instructions on the tin:
Buy low (when markets are risk-off/neutral), sell high (i.e. when your uncle starts asking “what’s this crypto stuff about?”).
MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES 📊
It's Thursday, so we're back with our latest Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates, and — wait…
Is that a comet calling to earth?
Nope. It's just the Milk Man's crashing portfolio. (Pain…max pain). 😅
Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so don’t expect a high volume of trades. Read our “how to build a crypto portfolio in 2024” report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.
Portfolio Performance 📈
The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw an increase for ants over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $90.2K, up 0.8% since last week.
After a good stretch of volatility, we’re finally seeing a glimmer of green in the crypto markets this week. 🌱
Meanwhile, gold is hitting fresh all-time highs and the S&P 500 is inching closer to its own record-breaking levels.
This surge across various asset classes hints at growing investor confidence — something definitely worth watching.
Here’s why it matters: Price momentum can be the ultimate catalyst. As gold and traditional markets rally, $BTC could lead the charge in crypto’s next big run.
Once $BTC shatters its previous all-time highs, it might set off a broader market rally, dragging other assets along for the ride. 📈
Portfolio Changes 👀
We added $AAVE to our portfolio on Monday after keeping it on our watchlist for a good while!
Why? What's the size we added? How long are we holding it for? Why are we bullish? Should you ape into it too?
Ahhhh so many questions… 🤔
We're diving deep into Aave in this Saturday's PRO report – don't miss out.
The Milk Road PRO Portfolio is available for Milk Road PRO members only.
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PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Blockscout is your next-level block explorer. Multi-chain, highly configurable, and open-source, this essential DeFi tool gives access to all chain data and dApp functionalities. *
Coinbase is rolling out a feature that allows 1:1 conversions between euros and its EURC stablecoin. EURC is fully compliant with the European Union’s MiCA regulations. This move supports smoother transitions between traditional fiat and crypto in Europe.
Magic Eden Foundation has introduced the ME token to enhance cross-chain trading of NFTs and other digital assets. This token is central to Magic Eden's ecosystem as it expands across multiple blockchain platforms.
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen five straight days of positive inflows, amassing $39M in recent trading. Grayscale, Fidelity, and Bitwise are among the top performers, each drawing significant investor interest.
Tron’s SunPump platform has overtaken Solana’s Pump.Fun in daily memecoin activity, launching over 7,000 tokens in just 24 hours. This shift has also boosted Tron’s active wallets and revenue, signaling growing interest from traders.
*this is sponsored content
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
