Hello Frens,
We’re back with another round of the Milk Road Macro PRO AMA for our Macro PRO community!
Not everyone can attend the live AMAs so we thought it would be a good idea to share the recording and a written summary.
Again to be clear - this is NOT replacing our Monthly Macro PRO Report - this is in addition to it.
The next alpha packed Macro PRO report is scheduled for 12/07 so be on the lookout for that.
In this AMA we covered the effect of the government shutdown (finally) ending, the outlook for December rate cuts, where the next waves of liquidity are going to come from, and a lot more!
Unfortunately, the recording crashed midway through the stream (we’re still not sure why) but most of it survived and is available for your viewing pleasure.
Alright, let’s get macro!
Macro environment & market context
- Government shutdown & liquidity drag: The winding down of the U.S. government shutdown should have a market impact. While no sudden liquidity surge is expected, ending the shutdown will reduce the Treasury’s liquidity drag (about $1 trillion taken out of the market), which is a bullish but moderate tailwind.
- Federal reserve policy: The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening by December 1st. The Fed’s role is to maintain market stability rather than aggressively push bullish or bearish moves. Rate cuts may happen in December but are not certain, with emphasis on gradual easing aligned with economic growth and bank reserve needs, not large-scale quantitative easing yet.
- China trade deal stability: A recent trade deal signals reduced risk of a new tariff war, contributing to market stability and confidence. Bullish! Make sure you check out the recent Milk Road Macro Podcast with Brad Setser on this subject!
- Clarity Act & crypto regulation: Renewed movement on the Clarity Act and a first draft being released indicate a positive sign for digital asset regulation, promising clearer rules and greater institutional confidence in crypto, particularly benefiting altcoins and DeFi projects.
- Bitcoin’s technical health: Bitcoin remains above critical bullish support bands despite volatility, suggesting its longer-term bull market remains intact, contrary to some bearish forecasts. Still keeping a close eye as the market fights hard at these key price levels.
Now for the Q&A you came for. 👇️
Uh, Oh… 😧 The rest of this report is exclusive to Macro PRO and All Access members!
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WHAT’S LEFT INSIDE? 👀
- What’s up with Ethena?
- How might recent events like the government shutdown and U.S.–China tensions affect the Fed’s rate-cutting plans in December?
- Where is liquidity coming from next?
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WHAT MACRO PRO MEMBERS SAID LAST WEEK:
