🥛 3 smart Polymarket bets for the NBA Finals 🏀

GM. This is Milk Road Degen, the crypto newsletter that’s channeling its inner NBA analyst.

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ 3 Polymarket bets for the NBA finals

HOW TO MAKE MONEY ON THE NBA FINALS 🏀

Degens, let’s make some money on the NBA finals. Right now, like RIGHT THIS INSTANT, there are several 2-3x return opportunities on Polymarket. 👀

But you gotta act fast, they’ll be gone by tip-off.

This isn’t your typical betting platform after all.

You aren’t betting against the house; in fact, you’re betting against a PvP market that desperately wants to give you its money.

Don’t care about basketball? Good. You don’t need to.

This is a crash course on how Polymarket works, and how to use it to print cash.

Today we’ll cover:

How Polymarket works (hint: it's not what you think)
How to make money on Polymarket (also not what you think)
My Finals prediction (probably wrong)
3 bets to make right away

First, How Polymarket Works

Polymarket isn’t your average betting site - in fact, it's not a betting site at all.

It’s a stock market.

You load up some funds with $USDC on Polygon (or a credit card), and buy the outcomes of basically anything you want: Trump speeches, Pope selections, even how much the Fed will cut rates (yes actually).

Every “prediction” has two outcomes (typically “YES” or “NO”) that add up roughly to $1. If you buy one, the other goes down. You can use market or limit orders just like you would on an exchange.

Here’s an example: Cooper Flagg is almost a lock to go #1 in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Right now, you can buy “NO” on him being picked first for $0.08. If something wild happens and he doesn’t go first, your $0.08 share turns into a full dollar.

Source: Polymarket

That’s a 12x payout on a single bet.

The market isn’t set by oddsmakers: it's set by retail traders. You’re trading shares of an outcome against other people trading the same outcome.

Hence the limit orders you see on the betting page. Those are PEOPLE, not oddsmakers.

When a market “resolves” (i.e. the outcome happens for real), the losing side gets wiped and the winning side becomes worth $1.

There is no house. It’s a PvP battle.

How To Make Money on Polymarket

Here’s the secret: Because Polymarket is a PvP battle against other betters, it's not actually about being right. It’s about being early.

You’re not just betting on the outcome… you’re betting on the market-set odds changing.

You’re trading sentiment.

Another example:

The Pacers are priced at $0.15 to win the Finals. OKC is at $0.85.

Source: Polymarket

That means the market expects OKC to win quite convincingly.

BUT if the Pacers win Game 1 (which they’ve done in every series so far, including TWICE on the road), the odds might shift.

Suddenly, Pacers stock could jump to $0.20 or even $0.30. That’s an easy 2x, just for front-running the public reaction.

This is less about sports predictions, and more about reading narrative shifts before the crowd catches on.

Before We Start: My Finals Outlook

The matchup: One of the all-time deepest teams that also happens to be the best rated defense in the league vs. a quirky offensive machine that has “the magic” of the post season.

My take? I think the Pacers will surprise.

I think this series goes six or seven games, with OKC taking the title and Indiana getting a nice pat on the back.

And I wouldn’t be shocked if an OKC starter picks up an injury or two. It’s nearly impossible to make it this far without anyone getting hurt.

I’m only playing the first two or three games though: get in, catch the price action, and peace out once the odds move. Classic in-and-out.

Alright enough setup. Just tell me what to bet on, LG.

Bet #1: Game 1 Momentum Play

Here’s my move: Wait until the game starts.

The Pacers are comeback kings. They came back from 14 points down with 3 minutes left in Game 1 against the Knicks. They also start games fast - they’ve won the first quarter in every series so far.

You’ve got two options: