GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that’s like a dashcam for the market. We catch everything so you can replay it later.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ BTC vs. hot CPI.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin Is Doing Exactly What It Did Before the Last Bull Run.
- 🍪 NYSE picks Avalanche.
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Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
BTC NEEDED A REASON TO REBOUND. CPI DIDN'T GIVE IT ONE 🌡️
Yesterday, John (our crypto analyst) told you what's holding Bitcoin back: a lack of buyers with a reason to step back in.
He even listed what would give them one…
- A cool CPI report today.
- Calmer credit markets.
- ETF buyers coming back.
… and this morning, that first one came in hot.
CPI (the government's monthly measure of how fast prices are rising) rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists expected.
Core CPI (the same measure minus food and energy, which bounces around a lot) rose 0.3%, also above the 0.2% forecast:
Source: BLS, Dow Jones consensus
That's a problem for Bitcoin because of what the Fed likely does next.
Traders had already priced in a December rate hike before the report even dropped.
Then overnight, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a hot number could justify a 50 basis point hike (0.5%, double the usual 0.25% move).
Higher rates mean cash and bonds pay more, which pulls money away from riskier bets like BTC.
The 10-year Treasury yield (what the U.S. government pays to borrow for 10 years) jumped to 4.93% after the release, and BTC slid another ~1% to ~$73.6K.
Bitcoin was already lagging before any of this too.
Yesterday the S&P 500 had its best day since April and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%, while BTC barely moved.
And the ETF buyers John was waiting on?
They're still heading for the exit…
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BTC NEEDED A REASON TO REBOUND. CPI DIDN'T GIVE IT ONE (P2) 🌡️
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $201M yesterday.
BlackRock's IBIT alone lost $213.2M (its seventh straight day of withdrawals), while the other funds took in a little, lowering the net loss to $201M.
And the big corporate holders aren't picking up the slack:
1. The Bitcoin miner, MARA, sold 13,597 BTC (~$1.1B) in six weeks - 40% of what it held at the end of September, and says it'll keep selling to raise cash for AI data centers.
Two years ago, it promised to hold every coin it mined.
2. Strategy is still buying, but its focus is split. It bought 1,036 BTC (~$81.9M) and spent more than double that ($188.3M) buying back STRC, the preferred stock it sells to fund its Bitcoin buys.
Strategy's average cost is $75,456 per BTC, making its whole 850,364 BTC stack slightly underwater.
Here's where John thinks buyers show up:
The zone where John wants to allocate is $71-72K, about $2K below where BTC sits now.
He thinks plenty of cash sitting out of the market is waiting for those prices, so he doesn't expect a dip there to last long.
On the flip side, BTC needs to clear $85-87K (the ceiling that rejected it in late September and early October) to turn bullish again:
Source: Daily closes (UTC), Nov 10 via CoinDesk
Next up is the PPI report on Friday (inflation at the wholesale level, before it reaches shoppers), then the Fed's decision on Dec. 9.
Another hot number this week makes a 50 basis point hike more likely, and nudges BTC closer to John's zone.
Btw - John has promised PRO members an update the moment anything changes.
If you want to get it in real time, try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days.
WHERE TIM WARREN BUYS THIS DIP
A week ago, Bitcoin was above $80K. Now it's fighting to hold $74K after a tech stock selloff, more than $1B in liquidations and the biggest week of ETF outflows since June.
Tim Warren, crypto technical analyst and host of the Tim Warren Show, joined John to read the charts.
Here's what we covered:
- What happens if Bitcoin loses $73K, its 200-day moving average.
- Why Tim calls LINK under $11 "a massive steal."
- The altcoins he's buying on this dip, from NEAR to ONDO to TAO.
👉 Watch the full episode now.
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
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NYSE picks Avalanche: Ava Labs says it will be the core ledger for the clearing firm behind NYSE’s planned 24/7 tokenized securities platform.
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