🥛 BTC’s top is 1yr old today 🎂

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Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ BTC’s top is 1yr old today.
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Why LayerZero Could Be the Biggest Sleeping Giant in Crypto.
🍪 Aerodrome and Velodrome are merging.

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Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.

BITCOIN'S TOP IS ONE YEAR OLD TODAY 🎂

One year ago today, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,198.

... then the party ended pretty quickly.

Over the next nine months, BTC fell ~54% to a low near $58K this summer. It's since clawed back to ~$86K, which still leaves it ~32% below the top.

That makes today a big date for anyone who follows the four-year cycle.

Quick refresher on the theory: Bitcoin tends to peak, fall for about 12 months, then climb for the next ~3 years. If the calendar holds, the "down" year ends today.

Geoffrey Kendrick (head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered) told us last week that Bitcoin has "100% seen the low."

He even expects cycle-watchers to treat today as a buying opportunity, "which I think is sensible."

His big tell came on Aug 19: That's when the U.S. Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated government bonds (the government buying back its own older debt), from $2B to at least $4B per operation.

Kendrick took it as the signal that the down cycle was officially over. BTC seemed to agree, jumping from ~$65K to ~$78K over the next three days.

Source: TradingView

BTC then closed the third quarter up ~42.7%, its best third quarter since 2017.

Our crypto analyst John Gillen is firmly in that camp. He says it's a bull market until someone sells BTC below $75,500 "in full view of God and my limit orders" (his standing orders to buy at set prices).

The Treasury bought those bonds to drag long-term borrowing costs down.

But the bond market had other plans...

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BITCOIN'S TOP IS ONE YEAR OLD TODAY (P2) 🎂

On Aug 19, the 10-year Treasury yield (what the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years) dipped from 4.71% to 4.65%.

Two days later, it was back above where it started.

And it's kept climbing ever since. It's now hovering around 5.3%, its highest level since 2002.

Source: U.S. Treasury

That's a headache for Bitcoin, because a government bond now pays you ~5% a year for doing nothing. Every dollar that goes into something riskier has to beat that.

Which is why two of our PRO analysts are sitting on their hands.

M0xt kept this month's new cash parked.

The MRMI (Milk Road Macro Index, our gauge of whether the macro backdrop favors risk) recently hit -1.25, its lowest since the March crash, and now sits at -0.86.

In his words, a 5.3% yield "puts a real price on every dollar I deploy."

Source: Milk Road Macro Index

Kyle is waiting too.

He's still bullish on crypto and still mostly invested. But he's hoping for a pullback over the next couple of weeks to buy into.

Even the four-year cycle crowd can't agree on what comes next.

Benjamin Cowen (crypto analyst) had pegged this month as the most likely timing for the cycle bottom. Veteran trader Peter Brandt went further, circling Oct 4 with $40-50K in mind.

Oct 4 came and went with BTC sitting at ~$85K. Either this cycle's bottom came early (and shallower than usual), or there's one more leg down to come.

Long story longer - right now, it’s looking like the bond market matters more than the calendar.

Three things we’re watching from here:

John's $75,500 level (we want to stay above it).
The 10-year yield (down = good for BTC. Up = bad for BTC).
What happens on Nov 4, when the bigger Treasury buybacks wind down (one day after the U.S. midterm elections).

ICYMI: four of our PRO analysts already hold BTC, with average entries between ~$63K and ~$70K.

Every one of them is up between 22% and 35% on it - all while BTC itself still sits ~32% below its high.

That's what getting in early buys you: enough cushion that a drop to John's $75,500 level still leaves all four in profit.

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