GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that makes the Scoville scale throw in the towel.
Here’s a taste of this week’s menu:
- 🔥 BTC to $500K in 2yrs.
- 🥵 NYSE picking Avalanche makes no sense.
- 🌶️ Michael Burry was wrong.
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK 🔥
Worst vibes since FTX, still calling $500K 🚀
James Lavish (Co-Managing Partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund) told John that Bitcoin sentiment feels as bad as the March 2020 washout and the FTX blowup.
OGs dumped BTC at $100K, money rotated into AI, and now Elizabeth Warren is likely about to run Senate Banking.
Yet he’s sticking with a $400K-$500K blow-off top sometime in early to mid 2029.
His thinking leans on the Bitcoin power law (r-squared of 0.962), with June as this cycle’s low and the peak landing roughly three years later.
That said - James called $180K last cycle and we topped out around $126K, so he’s the first to admit he could be off again.
🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.
The NYSE picked Avalanche and our analysts are confused 🤷
The NYSE just picked Avalanche to settle its tokenized stocks, and Martin Toman (Lead Crypto Analyst at Milk Road) straight up said he doesn’t get it.
His argument is that Ethereum’s whole pitch is Coinbase, OKX and Robinhood’s chains all eventually plugging into one ecosystem, so why would you launch on an island?
Martin even admitted he couldn’t name a single DeFi app on Avalanche, because he only lives on Ethereum, its L2s, Hyperliquid and Solana.
Kyle Reidhead (Head of Research at Milk Road) fired back that the chain barely matters, since whoever owns the users (Coinbase, Robinhood, OKX) wins and blue chips like Uniswap and Aave just do the routing under the hood.
🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.
Sorry Burry, old GPUs are getting more expensive 🖥️
Melvin (Lead Portfolio Manager at Milk Road PRO) broke down CoreWeave’s best quarter ever, and the stat that jumped out was new 4-5 year contracts signing at $20M-$25M of revenue per megawatt, roughly double the ~$9.8M from earlier this year.
Even the older Hopper GPUs saw rental prices jump 30-50% this quarter, landing above their original contract prices.
That’s a direct hit on Michael Burry’s bear case that GPUs lose value way faster than companies admit.
Melvin’s view is that demand (10x capacity through 2027) is the easy part, and switched-on power is the real bottleneck.
🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) 🔥
Bearish opinions, bullish facts 🧔
Tim Warren (Crypto Analyst & host of Tim Warren Trades) thinks the “composite man” (the big banks, funds and governments moving as one) is running a trick on retail.
You get bullish facts like Coinbase partnering with the DTCC, then counteractive bearish opinions like “no bull market for 10 months” - so you dump the assets that these institutions are trying to accumulate.
Tim’s buying spot BTC at the 200-day moving average around $73K and says he’s 90% sure the bear market bottom is in.
🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.
Robotaxis won’t kill Uber, they’ll drive for it 🚕
Martin Toman (Lead Researcher at Milk Road PRO) thinks the market has the Uber robotaxi fear completely backwards.
Uber’s CFO said the biggest constraint right now is a shortage of drivers, and Martin sees Waymo and Tesla as the fix, since Uber already owns the 250M monthly users they’d need to fill their cars.
The numbers back him up: bookings up 20%, $10.4B in trailing free cash flow, and mobility margins climbing from 7.4% to 8% over the past year.
If robotaxis were eating Uber, that margin line is where you’d see it first.
Yet the stock sits ~30% off its highs at roughly 14x free cash flow, which is why it’s one of Martin’s biggest positions.
🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Securitize is the company quietly powering BlackRock, Apollo and KKR's move onchain. Here's how we broke it down in our article.*
Spencer Applebaum: AI can write a lending protocol in an afternoon. What it can't do is "manifest $10 billion of stablecoin deposits" or sign up 28 million customers.
X is turning the feed into a trading terminal: Tap a Solana cashtag and you get a Trade on fomo button (available for all Solana tokens).
Illia Polosukhin: we are in a security Armageddon. AI models that don't sleep and have infinite attention will keep finding bugs humans miss.
*this is sponsored content.
