Today's edition is brought to you by Polymarket - the world’s largest prediction market, providing real-time forecasts as events unfold.
GM. This is Milk Road. Happy rate cut day to those that celebrate!
(25bps confirmed, baaaby!)
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ DeFi is back from the dead
- ✍️ How to talk to your family about crypto
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: a16z State of Crypto Report 2024: Top Takeaways & Predictions w/ a16z Data Scientist
- 🍪 Coinbase premium flips positive
Prices as of 2:00PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
DEFI IS BACK FROM THE DEAD BAAABY! 💀
What’s happened in crypto over the past 24 hrs?
Short answer? This:
Long answer: over the last 24hrs, many of the biggest crypto gainers have been DeFi projects.
CowSwap, the MEV protected DEX aggregator, was the largest of any project yesterday (DeFi or not), with a gain of 205%. 👇
Meanwhile, the biggest gainers of the crypto Top 100 went something like this:
Lido, Ethena, Uniswap, Raydium, Aave, and Maker? They’re all DeFi projects (hell yeah!).
And four of those top performers are part of the Milk Road PRO Portfolio.
Which is great for our PRO members who got the inside word on this months ago (you can click here if you wanna join ‘em)...
…not so great for some of us, who are now having to deal with a whole bunch of internal chirping. 👇
Chevy’s DMs
My mother always taught me to “Kill ‘em with kindness (...or a blunt object – whatever’s closest at hand).”
And seeing as we all live in different cities, I’m going to have to settle for the former. So, congrats on the early calls fellas – especially CoW Swap. 👏
👆 That’s Martin (aka “Dr. Pro”), one of our researchers.
Ok, but what’s driving all of this?
Simple: the election.
Over the last four years, SEC chair Gary Gensler has been on a warpath with crypto – but with the change in presidency, his reign is about to come to an end.
As a result, the market is betting that the regulatory landscape in the US is about to open up to crypto – allowing for a whole bunch of new growth!
For DeFi projects (and crypto in general), this means they should now be able to:
- Build in the US
- Make airdrops available to US citizens
- ‘Flip on the fee switch’ and start giving their fee revenue back to token holders
All without fear of getting sued.
(And those that are already being sued, have the hope that their lawsuits will soon be dropped).
Nice! Now – what comes next?
Well, history has shown that the tokens that perform best early on, usually continue to outperform throughout the pump.
So if crypto continues to climb over the next few weeks, expect DeFi to lead the way.
And if you’re not already – get allocated.
Oh, and for the love of god: form an exit plan
(‘Cause in crypto, hope is not a strategy).
POLYMARKET WAS RIGHT
Trump won the electoral college and the popular vote, but Polymarket is perhaps the biggest winner this election cycle 🏆
Polymarket’s “wisdom of the crowds” turned out to be the most reliable way to forecast the election by correctly predicting the outcome in all 50 states — weeks in advance.
Next markets to keep an eye on:
- Trump Ends Ukraine War by April 19 (🔮 42% chance)
- Trump Declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? (🔮14% chance)
- Who Will Trump Pardon in First 100 Days?
Disclaimer: Forecasts available worldwide, trading not available in US and other restricted jurisdictions.
HOW TO TALK TO YOUR FAMILY ABOUT CRYPTO 🗣️
Uh oh.
Thanksgiving is coming up.
Which means you’re about to be peppered with all sorts of crypto-related questions from your family, as they try to understand “what’s up with this crypto stuff that you’re into?”
So we figured we’d give you three simple talking points to help get the message across.
1/ Crypto is the internet of value
“Uncle Steve, crypto is like the internet. But instead of allowing you to exchange information, it allows you to exchange value – and it’s growing at a similar pace.”
If Steve asks for proof, hit him with this bad boy:
And if he decides to surprise you and say “active addresses aren’t representative of single users” – acknowledge his insight, and point him to the note section of that image.
2/ Bitcoin? Ethereum? Nah, stablecoins.
Look, you could try and explain what $BTC and $ETH are – or you could take the easier route – speak to what Steve is already familiar with: dollars.
“Steve, remember that time you spent 2 hrs yelling at that poor customer service lady after you saw what it cost to send an international wire? You can do the same via crypto, for less than $0.01.”
Oh, Steve needs proof? Of course he does. Airdrop him this:
3/ Yeah, but who’s even using this stuff?
“Tens of millions of people use it every month. While hundreds of millions of people hold it. Including your boy Larry Fink.”
(From our experience, uncles love Larry Fink – or at the very least, know him as ‘that guy I see on Fox Business every now and then’).
Need to stick the landing with this? We got you.
Now – these are just some boiler plate ideas.
If you want to mix things up, and maybe add to your arsenal of talking points – you’re in luck!
‘Cause we just sat down with Daren Matsuoka, partner at a16z / one of the guys responsible for making all of these charts.
In this conversation, we cover:
- The key applications of crypto
- The size and state of crypto as it stands today
- The crypto sectors that are set to grow exponentially in the coming years
Click below to listen now! 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
Imagine giving someone a map, when they’d only ever navigated by the Sun and the stars…
(That’s kind of what it’s like when you first learn about crypto’s four year cycle).
Knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
- Full access to the 5 bull market peak indicators above to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late
- Full access to the Milk Road PRO Portfolio 📈
- NEW: Our yield strategies 👀
- Weekly reports that will help you invest successfully in crypto 💰
- Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 100s of fellow PROs talk crypto 🫂
- 50% OFF the Crypto Investing Masterclass
PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Transak is now powering NFT checkouts for Lamborghini’s Fast ForWorld project. While many web2 companies have ventured into NFTs, it’s always exciting to see a powerhouse name like Lambo join the space. Vrooooom.*
Coinbase premium flips positive for the first time in weeks. For those out of the loop: higher Coinbase premium = higher demand from U.S. investors. With Trump at the wheel, we might see this trend climbing up.
French whale made $78.7M just from betting on the U.S. elections on Polymarket. This man is such a visionary that France is now looking to ban Polymarket. Talk about making an impact. Wowza.
Dune just dropped a new dashboard that tracks all crypto lost to hacks and scams. Navigating the crypto world can feel like a walk through a minefield, so it’s great to see folks stepping up to make this space a bit safer. Props to Dune for this one!'
Ethereum launches Mekong testnet to preview the upcoming Pectra upgrade. The whole world could be taking shots at Ethereum but they don’t care. They just put their head down and keep on building. *this is sponsored content
MILKY MEMES 🤣
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
