GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that's your bat signal for when the market gets weird.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ If you’re in AI, pivot to crypto.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Ethereum Is Finally Playing to Win.
- 🍪 Pssst… come work with us!
Europe's biggest blockchain conference, European Blockchain Convention, is back in Barcelona on September 16-17. Milk Road readers get 15% off tickets with code “MILKRO_15”.
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IF YOU'RE IN AI, PIVOT TO CRYPTO 🔄
John Gillen (our in-house crypto-purist/analyst) opened a recent Milk Road PRO note with something that would've gotten him laughed at three months ago.
"If you're in AI, pivot to crypto."
It may still get some giggles today, considering crypto has been the year's worst place to park a dollar.
Bitcoin topped out at $126,198 last October, and today, it’s ~49% below that high - the one silver lining being that nothing actually broke this time (no exchange failed, no stablecoin snapped its peg).
Money just left. And a whole lot of it went straight into AI stocks.
Then July happened.
Chip stocks shed more than $1T in market value over a few weeks, Korean chipmakers got hit, and the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 10%. 👇
Investors started asking whether all that CapEx (the money these companies have been pouring into chips, buildings and data centers) will ever earn its keep.
John isn't calling a top on any of it.
He thinks the AI trade still works. In fact, he thinks it goes higher.
But the easy part is done: the crazy 1,000% gains are behind us, and what used to be a flood of capital is now a knife fight over market share at every layer of the stack.
His tell? Regular people in his life have started asking him about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
It’s usually pretty late in the game when that kind of thing starts happening.
So he's looking at the other side of the trade, where crypto has a switch getting flipped this week.
We just don’t know in which direction…
EUROPE’S BIGGEST BLOCKCHAIN CONFERENCE IS BACK
Cross-border deals that normally take months of travel happen here in two days.
The European Blockchain Convention returns to Barcelona on September 16-17.
This is Europe's first major institutional gathering since MiCA came fully into force.
Why you should consider going:
- 5,000+ attendees from 90+ countries
- 300+ speakers including J.P. Morgan, Coinbase, Fidelity and Invesco
- 80 of Europe's top 100 banks expected on the floor
The institutions, capital, builders, and infrastructure providers you need to know will all be together in the same place. Don’t miss out.
Milk Road readers get 15% off with code MILKRO_15.
IF YOU'RE IN AI, PIVOT TO CRYPTO (P2) 🔄
The CLARITY Act would write into U.S. law which crypto assets count as commodities under the CFTC and which count as securities under the SEC.
Right now that split gets decided case by case in court, which is why nobody wants to build anything here.
It cleared the House 294-134 last July and got through Senate Banking 15-9 in May. It needs 60 votes on the Senate floor, and tomorrow is the last scheduled working day before summer recess.
This is where it gets messy.
Majority Leader John Thune promised a vote before recess, but as of yesterday he still hadn't filed for cloture (the motion that ends debate so a vote can happen) - and that motion has to sit a full day before anyone can act on it.
So unless the Senate works into the weekend (which, to be fair, isn’t strictly off the table) - it looks like it ain’t happening.
Punchbowl reported Democrats have settled on voting no unless Republicans move on ethics, illicit finance and stablecoin yield, and prediction markets put the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 17% right now.
Which leaves three doors:
1. It passes. And a market positioned for failure gets shocked in the opposite direction.
2. It dies on the floor. Crypto tests bear market lows, and the bill likely waits until after the midterms.
3. Nothing happens at all. The Senate leaves Friday without touching it, then returns to 14 working days in September and a government to fund.
Based on where things stand, door three looks the most likely of the bunch.
Which is why John's positioning matters more than the vote does. He's set up so all three doors work for him.
- If it passes, he's already long.
- If it fails and Bitcoin dumps, his resting bid gets filled at a better price.
- If nothing happens, he keeps accumulating on the same schedule he's been on all year.
He bought at $58,074 on July 1, from a bid he set back in February. His next one sits at $55K, and he'll add under $60K on general principle.
According to John, the debate among big dog investors right now is whether to allocate this month or wait until fall - either way, he expects the smart money to be fully positioned by Q4.
None of which means the bottom is in.
John's not telling you to dump everything you own into Bitcoin this week, but to instead use this time to decide what crypto assets you want to hold (before the next cycle starts without you).
Or in his words: “Don't miss a generational entry on the apex assets of finance, just because you're revenge trading electric sand.”
Btw - four of our five analysts hold Bitcoin right now.
John's entry is $58,074 with a bid resting at $55K. The others have their own levels and their own reasoning.
That's what PRO actually buys you: the plan before the outcome, not the postmortem after it.
You can try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Wanna use your Bitcoin without selling it? Peoples Reserve goes beyond basic crypto lending with borrowing, mortgage, yield, swap, and spending tools.
Lyn Alden: The U.S. debt is now $39T, going up roughly $2T a year - "there's really no way out other than default." But default for a reserve currency means debasement.
Tom Lee's H2 2026 outlook: The market's PE actually dropped from 19.4x to 18.4x on 2027 earnings - it got cheaper while going up.
Kyle Reidhead: The Fed will not be raising rates in September. There's no reason to Inflation is cooling, not heating up.
Pssst… come work with us! We’re currently hiring content creators and analysts (full-time & remote). I dare you to apply.
Get 15% off with code “MILKRO_15.” The European Blockchain Convention is back in Barcelona on September 16-17.**
**this is partner content.
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