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GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that helps you zig, while everyone else is zagging.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ $BTC supply crunch incoming?
- ✍️ 11 private funds allocating to $BTC
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: You’re Not Bullish Enough: Bitcoin’s Big Signals vs. Bearish Noise w/ Natalie Brunell
- 🍪 TradFi adoption continues
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
$BTC: THE FIRST TRILLION $ ASSET OWNED PREDOMINANTLY BY INDIVIDUALS 🫵
Last night, I had an “Oh damn, that just broke my current framing of Bitcoin!” moment delivered in the form of a Telegram message...
And now, I want to pass that same moment on to you.
But the story first begins in our Discord research channel…
1/ At 9:32 AM (ET) yesterday, Raul dropped this in the chat
If that chart is anything to go by, last year, there was a funnel going from individuals’ $BTC bags, straight to institutional funds – helping to explain the sentiment gap we’re all feeling right now. 👇
Then in comes our chief yapper, Mr. Hamilton…
2/ At 4:05 PM (ET) yesterday, Jay dropped this in Telegram…
Along with the following chart, showing that of the 21M Bitcoin that will ever be created – 14.6M, or ~69% (nice) of the total supply is owned by individuals. 🤙
Here’s part 1 of my “Oh damn, that just broke my current framing of Bitcoin!” moment...
Sure, it feels like institutions dominate the Bitcoin ecosystem right now – but in reality they’re only at the starting line, while we (individual holders) have lapped them multiple times over.
(Hell, we might as well be in the locker rooms showering).
And you know what individuals aren’t known for? Holding a lot of Bitcoin.
Which means if institutions want to pry $BTC from retail holders, it’s going to be a slow, and fragmented process.
(I.e. the larger the retail holder base → the greater the supply constraint).
Now, here’s part two of my “Oh damn!” moment…
You take this:
And start to work forward…
Demand beat expectations in 2024: In 2023, Matt Hougan (Bitwise’s CIO) called expectations of $10B-$30B in $BTC ETF inflows for 2024 “ridiculous” → the $BTC ETFs saw net inflows of ~$36.2B in 2024.
It’s only set to increase: An ETF's first year is typically its slowest → which means 2025 and beyond will likely outperform what we saw last year.
This sets up for a generational supply crunch: The remaining 5% of $BTC supply will be drip fed into the market between now and 2140 (seriously) → so filling institutional demand over the coming decades, while keeping $BTC prices stable, seems near impossible.
You feeling it? That “oh damn!” moment? It’s coming on, ain’t it?
Good, now lemme ramp it up even more with our next article, where we dig into ten private, and ridiculously deep-pocketed funds that have started allocating to Bitcoin. 👇
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11 PRIVATE FUNDS ALLOCATING TO $BTC 💰
So we know publicly tradable crypto funds have been gobbling up Bitcoin over the past year or so…
But what about private funds?
Sam Callahan just dropped a banger of a thread covering 11 banks, hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, endowments, pensions, sovereign wealth funds, & other asset managers that are buying $BTC…
How did he get this data?
Private funds with $100M or more in assets under management (AUM) have to file a ‘13f’ with the SEC, disclosing which stocks/equities they’re holding, and in what amounts.
Which means we can track if/when they’re buying/selling crypto ETFs.
With all of that said – Sam’s thread is kinda dense.
So we took the investment totals Sam listed, compiled them into an easily scannable graph, and dropped our quick hitting takeaways from the thread.
Our three biggest takeaways, straight off the dome:
1/ Holy hell, the Saudi’s are buying $BTC!
Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund is the 4th largest in the world, with $1T AUM!
2/ $BTC is Paul Tudor Jones’ biggest holding!
Paul is a legend GOAT of the investing world, and right now, Bitcoin makes up 4.53% of his portfolio. There’s a buy signal if I’ve ever seen one…
3/ Murray Stahl, who runs the Horizon Kinetics firm, has gone 'full Saylor'
When Murray was asked if he was going to take profits and lower his $BTC position to minimize his portfolio’s volatility and risk – he responded: Naw! I want that long-term compounding action baaaby!
(Except, he said it in a much more dignified way 👇).
Take all of the above…pair it with what we covered in our first article…
Now say it with me:
“Oh damn, that just broke my current framing of Bitcoin!”
👉 Reply to this email with the word “BULLISH” if you’re with me.
And if you’re still not there – we just dropped a new episode of The Milk Road Show, with Natalie Brunell, aptly titled:
“You’re Not Bullish Enough: Bitcoin’s Big Signals vs. Bearish Noise”.
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
Crypto moves in cycles, and knowing where we are in the current cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
- Full access to the 6 bull market peak indicators above to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late 📈
- NEW: Unlimited access to the Milk Road PRO Token Center with token ratings and insights. 🔓
- The Milk Road PRO Portfolio, our yield strategies & weekly updates to help you manage investments, allocate capital, take profits, and stay ahead in crypto 📊
- Weekly reports that help you spot early trends, navigate the markets by limiting risk & catch those sweet cha-ching moments 💰
- Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. Don’t miss the monthly live events! 🫂
- 50% OFF the Crypto Investing Masterclass 📚️
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
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More crypto bulls in government? Sure, why not! The US senate just confirmed pro-crypto Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary.
TradFi adoption continues: Nasdaq just proposed a new rule that would allow funds and securities tied to digital assets to be traded on its exchange.
The world’s first $XRP ETF — launching soon! Brazil is looking to launch the world’s first spot $XRP ETF
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
