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GM. This is Milk Road. The newsletter that aims to bring you the happiness of Tim, and the wealth of Greg.
(It’ll make sense once you read our first article).
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ Crypto fundamentals: Strong. Mood: Up
- ✍️ $BTC ETFs hit highest net inflows since July
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: China's $500B Stimulus, Democratic Pivot & New SEC Boss? w/ Tyler D
- 🍪 Celestia is unlocking $1.1 billion worth of TIA tokens on October 31st
Prices as of 9:30AM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
CRYPTO FUNDAMENTALS: STRONG. MOOD: UP 💪
We have this cousin – let’s call him Tim (cause that’s his name).
Tim is:
- 23 years old
- Riddled with credit card debt
- Lives in a total dump of a share house
Yet Tim is perpetually happy. He’s got the world at his feet, and feels like he can take on any challenges that he might face. 😃
Meanwhile, his father (Greg) is debt free, owns a beautiful home – and is (somehow) in a bad mood by default. 😒
The lesson: Fundamental reality and mood don’t always go hand-in-hand.
Same thing happens in crypto. The market fundamentals might be strong, but if the mood is off, price momentum can be hard to find.
Good news is: Right now, the market’s fundamental reality and its overall mood appear to be coming into alignment!
Check this out:
1/ $BTC is making higher lows and higher highs
When this happens, it can often signal a trend reversal…
In this case, it’s a seven month down trend that looks like it wants to kick things into reverse gear.
2/ We’re “Not. Even. Close.” to the cycle top according to Real Vision’s indicator
Ok, sounding bullish so far…but what about the market’s mood?
3/ The world's richest inmate is being freed today
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), former Binance CEO, is ending his four month prison sentence two days earlier than expected…
Why is this “BULLISH”? It’s not.
(What – is CZ going to get out of prison and just start dropping billions into the market? No.) 💸
Yet Crypto Twitter can’t shut up about it – cause right now, the market’s mood is aligned with its positive fundamentals – meaning neutral events are more likely to be rebranded as bullish.
Here’s the math on all of that:
Positive fundamentals + uplifted mood/sentiment = higher likelihood of increased investment (number go up). 📈
The takeaway? Crypto’s “vibecession” (Kyla Scanlon patent pending) looks like it could be coming to an end.
Not a bad way to start the weekend imo…
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$BTC ETFS HIT HIGHEST NET INFLOWS SINCE JULY 📈
What – that first article wasn’t bullish enough for you?
Yeesh. (Ok, uncle Greg).
Cast your eyes upon this bad boy…
$BTC ETF net-inflows are back, with a vengeance! 😈
What did it – outside of bullish fundamentals and the recent shift in market mood?
Grayscale took a chill pill.
It’s looking like Grayscale ETF holders might be done selling as heavily as they have been previously (at least for the time being)…
They started to plateau at around -$20B, this time last month – and we’re still yet to see any heavy selling resume, even as prices pick up.
This could well change – Grayscale still holds 226,000+ $BTC in its ETF – but for now, it’s a good sign! 👌
Ok, that’s everything we’ve got for you this week. Feeling a little more bullish after all of that?
We’re glad to hear it!
(And now formally rechristen you as ‘Tim’). 👼
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Celestia is unlocking $1.1 billion worth of TIA tokens on October 31, accounting for a significant portion of October's nearly $2 billion crypto token releases. This includes other releases from projects like Aptos and Arbitrum.
MicroStrategy, despite outperforming every S&P 500 stock over the past four years, won't be joining the index soon. Its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet and inconsistent earnings continue to raise concerns for long-term financial stability.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
