GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter hotter than your DMs after publicly calling the bottom.
Hereโs a taste of this weekโs menu:
- ๐ฅ Solana is quietly eating NASDAQ's lunch.
- ๐ฅต Satoshi's coins are a ticking time bomb.
- ๐ถ๏ธ Weโre witnessing the biggest oil shock in human history.
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK ๐ฅ
Solana is quietly eating NASDAQ's lunch ๐ฝ๏ธ
Catherine Gu (Head of Product, Digital Assets at the Solana Foundation) dropped a wild stat:
Solana is now giving you better spreads and less slippage than centralized exchanges like Binance.
Catherine says between Jupiter's smart routing, prop-AMMs, and deep onchain liquidity, Solana is actually beating CEXs on execution quality.
She's positioning Solana as the "internet capital market" - basically a new NASDAQ that trades everything from tokenized equities to account receivables.
They also just shipped Solana Developer Platform (SDP), an API-first toolbox so that banks and fintechs can build on Solana without ever touching Rust.
Oh, and they just overtook Base in agent payments volume. No big deal.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Satoshi's coins are a ticking quantum time bomb ๐ฃ
Lorenzo Valente (Director of Research at ARK Invest) dropped a bomb about Google's new Shor's algorithm paper.
Lorenzo says Google's latest research shows a 20x efficiency gain in breaking ECDSA - the public key cryptography behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and basically every L1.
The timeline just moved from mid-2030s to potentially 2029.
The scariest part? About a third of all Bitcoin sits in addresses where the public key is already exposed - including Satoshi's million coins.
And since you have to actually move your coins to a quantum-safe address to protect them, and we don't even know if Satoshi is alive... yeah.
Lorenzo says Bitcoin's dev community needs to start moving on this immediately.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Weโre witnessing the biggest oil shock in human history ๐ข๏ธ
Rory Johnston (Founder of Commodity Context) said it plainly:
This is the single largest supply shock in the history of the oil market, bar none.
Rory ran the math - about 20M barrels a day normally transits the Strait. After physical reroutes and emergency reserves, you're still looking at a net deficit of roughly 6M barrels per day.
To fill that gap through demand destruction alone, you'd need Covid-level drops in consumption - except this time there are no lockdowns, no pandemic, just price mechanism.
And those emergency reserves? They run out.
The SPR release buys us about 120 days.
After that, Rory says the market literally starts eating itself alive. He thinks oil prices should already be at $130 minimum.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) ๐ฅ
Section 301 could hand the next Gary Gensler a loaded gun ๐ซ
Jake Chervinsky (CEO, Hyperliquid Policy Center) laid out why one sneaky clause in the CLARITY Act could undo everything crypto has fought for.
Jake says Section 301 - the "decentralized in name only" provision - was snuck into the bill in January and would let regulators treat any developer who can "materially alter" a protocol as a money transmitter or securities intermediary.
That sweeps up upgradable contracts, front ends, wallets - basically all of DeFi.
Jake's argument is chilling:
If we pass market structure that protects institutions but abandons developer protections, we're just handing the next hostile administration the weapon they need to nuke crypto from orbit.
And Congress only gets one shot at this.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Crypto's on sale and nobody's picking up the gold bars ๐
John Gillen (the host of the Milk Road Macro podcast) compared the current bear market to a truck full of gold bars spilling across the highway with nobody stopping to pick them up.
John says none of the 30+ top indicators ever signaled a cycle top this time around - there was no blow off, no euphoriaโฆ just apathy.
And now the bottom indicators are just as confused.
But here's what got him really fired up:
He just came back from Digital Asset Summit where BlackRock is hiring MDs specifically for Ethereum, the SEC and CFTC chairs both spoke positively about crypto, and even legacy macro guys like Jordi Visser are starting to say bullish things about ETH.
John's take?
The gap between institutional adoption (which is accelerating hard) and market sentiment (which is in the gutter) is the biggest opportunity of his career.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
PRO INSIGHT OF THE WEEK ๐ฎ
Earlier this week, one of our PRO members dropped a question in Discord:
โHey HODL crowd and folks with/without SOL conviction, I hold SOL Strategies Inc.
Despite the deep losses Iโm sitting on, whatโs your take:
Worth continuing to hold long-term, sell now at a loss, or start DCAโing more (not sold on it)?โ
One of our NoPs (Nerds-on-Payroll), John Gillen, took the lead and responded with some killer insight:
โThe way I think about DATs is that they are going to outperform their underlying asset in a bull run, but get beat to hell in a bear market.
So until we see BTC break out, and then alts start to follow, I'd personally say stick to the underlying, or just be super patient and conscious of position sizing with your accumulation of DATs because they could chop and go lower for a while here.
MSTR is a great example of this.
Outperformed BTC in the bull, got beat down super hard after the market turned.
There are some DATs Iโm very bullish on, MSTR, SBET, BMNR, etc.
Several good ones. But they are inherently much riskier and volatile IMO.โ
P.S. Want direct access to our PRO analyst team, so you can get your burning questions answered in real-time and make the right moves?
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MILKY MEMES ๐คฃ
