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GM. This is Milk Road. We’re like x-ray vision glasses for crypto markets.
(We show you what’s really happening under the hood).
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ This Banana Zone is different (what’s supposed to happen)
- ✍️ This Banana Zone is different (what’s actually happening)
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: 8 Charts That Prove $100K Bitcoin Is Just the Start w/ CryptoQuant's Head of Research
- 🍪 Gary Gensler, We Won’t Miss You
Prices as of 2:00PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
THIS BANANA ZONE AIN’T LIKE THE REST (P1) 🍌
“Life is a parade of absurdities and pain. Then you die. Alone. Returning to the dirt...”
Was it the most rousing Thanksgiving speech my brother had given? No.
He was going through something. Specifically: a break up (so we all gave him a pass).
Outside of that, his life was pretty great (objectively speaking) – he’d just gotten a promotion at work, he was looking to buy his first home, and he was surrounded by loved ones…
The point we’re trying to make is: perception is a helluva drug.
And right now, the crypto industry is high on perception.
‘Cause here’s the thing: the ‘Banana Zone’ that we’ve recently entered ain’t like the ones that have come before it…
Specific macro economic conditions are usually required for Banana Zones to kick off.
Conditions that we’re yet to meet, like:
- Low interest rates
- Quantitative Easing (or ‘QE’ as its known to its friends)
Here’s where we’re at with both…
1/ Low interest rates
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 0.75% so far this year, which the markets have (so far) responded well to. 👇
…but target rates are still at 4.50-4.75% overall, and we may not be seeing any further cuts this year. 👇
For context: at this time in the last crypto bull cycle (Nov. 2020), target rates were sitting at 0.00-0.25%.
Which meant loans were WAY cheaper to access, existing debt payments were much lower, and everyone had more disposable income to invest.
2/ Quantitative Easing
QE is the process of the Federal Reserve printing money, using it to buy government IOUs (aka: bonds) and handing out cash to banks.
i.e. pumping the economy with fresh cash, that eventually finds its way into all the nooks and crannies of the financial market (including the crypto sector), and pushing prices up.
But right now, the Fed ain’t doing that.
In fact, they’re doing the opposite – they’re still in the Quantitative Tightening (QT) phase, where they’re selling government bonds.
(I.e. pulling cash OUT of the system).
…so why the hell is everything pumping?
Scroll down to learn why this Banana Zone ain’t like the rest 👇
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THIS BANANA ZONE AIN’T LIKE THE REST (P2) 🍌
Why are markets booming right now?
Perception of future promises.
Kinda like that time your parents promised to take you to Disney Land if you kept your grades up, and you naturally invested more time and effort into your studies as a result…
Except in this case, it’s the Trump administration promising financial markets a trip to ‘Deregulation Land’ – a magical place where:
1/ Corporate taxes are lowered.
Attracting more builders to the US, and allowing existing businesses to flourish.
2/ Tech/finance companies are allowed to roam free, build cool sh*t, and launch tokens.
That is, without SEC Chair, Darth Gensler, blindly swinging his regulatory hammer around – sliding into companies’ dms, saying:
“Feeling litigious rn, might sue you later, idk”. (Aka: sending them Wells Notices).
So, low interest rate environments? Quantitative Easing? Nope! Not a factor here.
The crypto industry is simply high on the perception of future promises. 👇
The problem is, it will likely take months, if not years to implement some of these changes (assuming Trump sticks to his word).
Which could lead us to two potential scenarios:
- Trump takes office → the market comes down from its perception high → the macro environment stays relatively unchanged → leading to a pull back.
- Trump takes office → the market comes down from its perception high → but the macro environment flips (interest rates lower, QE kicks in) → the market momentum continues.
Obviously, we should all keep our fingers/toes/eyes crossed and hope that the latter option plays out…but, as is the nature of financial markets:
Nothing is guaranteed (there are a lot of moving parts here).
Now, if all of this is beginning to freak you out, don’t worry – we have a pallet cleanser for you.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, thinks a $120k Bitcoin won’t represent the market top, but instead, it will simply mark the beginning of this bull run.
What’s even better? We just sat down with Julio in today’s episode of The Milk Road Show!
Covering:
- The current market outlook
- Bitcoin demand momentum
- The potential for a MAJOR Bitcoin bull run
Click below to watch it now! 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
The Banana Zone is upon us!
But where exactly are we in the overall crypto cycle?
Knowing this is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.
The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signaling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Emergence, The Block’s debut conference, is taking place in the stunning city of Prague. A conference in early December, followed by a winter getaway in Europe—sounds like a dream, doesn’t it?*
Sui faces two-hour outage. Remember when Solana used to have outages like this? If this is a sign, then Sui could really be the next big thing.
Gary Gensler, We Won’t Miss You. Darth Gensler just announced he plans to resign on Jan. 20 (brb, off to party with some Ewoks).
We’re currently growing our team and are on the hunt for someone to lead partnerships at Milk Road. Think you’ve got what it takes? Click above to read the job description and apply.
You can now buy your Bitkey wallet directly from Amazon. Not sure what to gift your family this Thanksgiving? With $BTC on the rise, Bitkey’s hardware wallet might just be the perfect choice.* *this is partner / sponsored content
MILKY MEMES 🤣
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
