GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter hotter than a Twitter Space at 3am during a liquidation cascade.
Hereβs a taste of this weekβs menu:
- π₯ U.S. growth just peaked.
- π₯΅ Only dying things need a catalyst.
- πΆοΈ Dems in, hyperscalers up?
Every $BTC to $ETH swap is a taxable event. But inside a crypto IRA, it generally isn't. Here's how Roth and Traditional crypto IRAs work (and the catches).
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK π₯
U.S. growth just peaked ποΈ
Felix Jauvin (Head of Content at Blockworks & host of Forward Guidance) reckons U.S. growth just peaked.
Diesel prices are already eating into demand, the Dem sweep could slow the AI build-out, and the White House is looking for a way out of the Iran war.
His analog is Q4 2018, when a brand new Powell hiked into a slowdown, indices fell ~20% in a month, and the Fed had to pivot hard.
Markets are still pricing in a hike right now, but if the slowdown shows up, Felix sees a good shot that flips to cuts in 2027. That's the clearing event he's waiting on before Bitcoin really gets going.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Only dying things need a catalyst π
John D'Agostino (Head of Institutional Strategy at Coinbase) got asked what catalyst brings the next wave of institutions into crypto, and he flat out rejected the question.
His line: the only thing that needs a catalyst is a dying body.
John says "micro catalysts" (like ICE backing trade xyz) land every single day and people have just gone blind to them.
He sits on the board of AIMA, the world's biggest hedge fund association, and says the looky-loo phase is over.
Roughly 60%+ of funds are now going back to their investors to rewrite their mandates so they can actually trade crypto.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Dems in, hyperscalers up? π€
Melvin (AI Analyst at Milk Road PRO) thinks the market's reaction to the Dem sweep is completely backwards.
A week ago, investors were dumping the hyperscalers for spending too much on AI.
Post-election, they bid up Amazon 7% and Microsoft 6% on the bet that tighter data center rules slow the build-out, and dumped the chip stocks that supply them.
Melvin's point is you can't have cloud revenue booming and chip demand dying at the same time.
So he's buying the dip in memory, optical networking and neoclouds.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
HOW MUCH OF YOUR BITCOIN GAINS DOES THE IRS GET?
Say you buy Bitcoin to hold for 20 years. Solid plan. Then one day you sell.
At the top federal bracket, long-term gains can be taxed at up to 23.8% (20% capital gains plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax). Trade along the way and short-term gains can be taxed at up to 37%.
And in a normal account, almost everything counts. Swapping $BTC for $ETH is a taxable event. So is rebalancing. Ugh.
A crypto IRA changes because trades inside the account generally don't trigger taxes. With a Roth crypto IRA, qualified withdrawals in retirement can come out tax-free.
We broke down how it works: Roth vs. Traditional, the 2026 contribution limits, how custody works when you can't hold your own keys, and all those little catches (income limits, no tax-loss harvesting, early withdrawal penalties).
Read the crypto IRA breakdown β
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) π₯
Tokenized stocks are a shiny distraction πͺ©
Mike Cagney (Co-founder of SoFi and Figure, now CEO of Navra) isn't buying the tokenized stock hype.
Of the 62 companies lined up for 24/7 tokenized trading, 50 have already opted out, and he says the whole wrapper model is wasting the industry's brainpower.
His beef: they trade on AMMs, so execution is worse than a regular order book by definition, and you're only holding an IOU.
Mike says the real prize is stock lending, where brokers lend out your shares and keep 2-5% a year that should be yours, and native onchain stock hands that back.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Most neoclouds are screwed πͺ¦
Vincent (Lead AI Researcher at Milk Road PRO) is buying the AI infra dip, but only in names with fortress balance sheets like SpaceX.
His reasoning is about who's still willing to lend.
Insurers nearly halved their AI debt orders from Q1 to Q2 because their exposure is already too high, so cheap money is only flowing to the hyperscalers and SpaceX.
There are currently 200+ smaller neoclouds out thereβ¦
Vincent's verdict? They're screwed.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ
Wealthy investors ranked crypto above stocks as the best way to build wealth over 10 years. But only 2% plan to hold it that long. Why though?**
Chainlink x Anchorage: Custody Sync lets institutions put some of the ~$700B held by qualified custodians to work in DeFi without moving the assets.
ZachXBT suspects a cover-up: The unnamed EU hack is now $133M+, and he thinks a large Western European financial institution was exploited.
Pump.fun nearly matches Hyperliquid: It made $61.7M in October, 89% of Hyperliquid's $69.1M, with a token worth about 1/11th as much.
**this is partner content.
