Today’s edition is brought to you by Consensus Toronto (May 14-16) - the crypto conference where shit gets done.
Grab your tickets here (15% off with code: MILKROAD)
GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that holds your hand while you navigate the crypto world.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ What to look out for this week
- ✍️ Where are crypto prices heading in 2025?
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Markets Are Pumping… But Don’t Get Fooled w/ Kyle Reidhead
- 🍪 The Trump admin might bring USAID onchain
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📅
There are a BUNCH of events coming up this week that should surely excite you (well, one of them definitely excites me).
Here’s what’s up this week:
1/ Macro 📊
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data - Monday: strong PMI reading = economic growth
- CB Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday: a mood-check for the U.S. economy (how confident the people are in the economy)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow data - Wednesday: a real-time scorecard of the U.S. GDP (basically what Truflation is to CPI)
- US Q4 2024 GDP data - Thursday: this will either ease or augment the current recession fears
- February PCE inflation data - Friday: Another metric to gauge prices in the states
All eyes will be on the GDP data coming out on Thursday but the three preceding those might actually be even more important.
You see, Thursday’s GDP data is a “lagging indicator” (talking about old things like 2024) whereas the other 3 are “leading indicators” (or real-time data).
2/ We’re bidding goodbye to Chevy 👋
Nope, he’s not leaving us - he’s just gone on a vacation.
Replacing him, you’ve got me - Archie!
I’m basically Chevy’s right hand man doing all the research in the background while he soaks up all the fame.
I’ve also been writing a bunch for the Milk Road website but with Chevy sipping some mai-tais, it’s time to put on my big-boy shoes and make him regret going on break.
What you can expect from me: Same great content but less Solana-talk (because I’m not a total degen who’s all in on $SOL).
3/ A biiiig week on the pod (again) 🎙️
Adrien (our podcast manager) has been absolutely killing it with the Milk Road Show. This week, he’s managed to get bangin guests almost every day of the week:
- Chief NOP / Mr. Bossman / Kyle Reidhead breaks down how we’re shifting from vibes to fundamentals
- Yano from Blockworks is joining us tomorrow to give us the inside scoop on what institutional investors are thinking
- Haseeb (Managing Partner of Dragonfly) is joining our Milk Road Show live on Wednesday
- Arthur Hayes on Thursday - Prominent CT figure & also the co-founder of BitMEX
We wanted to omit some of the names (cuz the list was getting too long) but Adrien didn’t budge.
4/ Over $14B+ of options are expiring on Friday!
Some of you might have seen headlines like this before but what does it actually mean?
You just need to understand two things to get the hang of it:
- Tall red box: Option traders are betting $BTC will touch $100K by March 28th, 2025. If not, they’ll be making a loss.
- Max Pain Price: If $BTC sits at 85,000 (the max pain price) on March 28th, it will cause maximum financial pain for option buyers.
The translation? Expect some serious short-term volatility this week.
Why? Because as it sits right now, we're hovering just above the $85K max pain price which means a ton of options traders are set to lose a lot of money.
And because traders (or anyone for that matter) don't like to lose money, expect the big players to do what they can to push $BTC closer to $100K.
WE’RE HOSTING A MEETUP!
Want to put a face to the people behind this newsletter? Now’s your chance.
We’re hosting a Milk Road Community Meetup during Consensus Toronto (May 14-16).
The reason we chose Consensus Toronto (and not some other conference) is because it’s where shit gets done:
- #1 destination for dealflow (VCs, start-ups and even institutions - everyone’s going to be here)
- Crazy list of speakers (From Kevin O’Leary to Justin Sun)
- Endless side events (including the Milk Road meetup)
None of the fluff, just pure business. 🤝
Get your tickets here (discount code: MILKROAD) and come meet the Milk Road Team!
WHERE ARE CRYPTO PRICES HEADING? 🔮
By the end of this article, you’re going to have some sort of discomfort in your chest.
Why? Because we’re running a repeat edition of how to predict market prices w/ options markets (don’t worry, the discomfort will kick in soon).
In that edition, the options markets were telling us that Bitcoin was going to hit $75,000 by the end of February.
We didn’t quite get there, but it was pretty damn close 👇️
Given that we can do with some direction right now, here’s what the options traders' crystal ball suggests for the following timeframes:
1/ Six months from now
The biggest bet? Options traders believe the price of Bitcoin will hit $100K by the end of September!
That said, we also have plenty of calls (bullish bets) at higher prices, so we’re definitely looking comfortable in the medium-term.
No discomfort yet? Alright, let me turn it up a notch.
2/ The end of 2025
There’s no way to sugarcoat this so let me just go ahead and say it:
By the end of 2025, option traders believe Bitcoin is going to crash down to $65K.
Did the discomfort in the chest just kick in? Ya, I thought so.
While this is definitely possible, it’s probably not as bad as it seems. In the long term, this “crystal ball” tends to change quite a bit depending on market sentiment (which just so happens to be in the gutter right now).
So, don’t go panic-selling your bags just yet.
Because while retail tends to be scared right now, institutions are more bullish than ever.
Don’t trust us? Come back tomorrow and we’ll prove it.
P.S. If panic selling is your thing, you may as well use Milk Road Swap so you can enjoy the experience. Just don’t forget to use it again when you buy back in after prices pump 😉.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
CoinAvenueCapital, a group of fund managers and analysts, are opening up their private investment group. You gotta be quick with this though because there’s only 11 spots left!*
Another token buyback program! This time, it’s dYdX allocating 25% of its protocol fees to buy back its token on a monthly basis.
Tether is knocking on the Big 4’s door for an audit. Maybe a thorough audit is the final solution to counter all the Tether FUD.
The Trump admin might bring USAID onchain. With growing skepticism over where the U.S. aid money actually goes, blockchain will definitely bring transparency to the situation.
Crypto VCs are betting on 3 specific trends. We thought one of them would most definitely be DeFi but we were wrong. - DL News
Imagine getting 8% back on all your spendings. That’s exactly what Crypto.com is offering on their debit cards.**
*this is sponsored content. **this is partner content.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
