GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that’s as satisfying as that first sip of Coca-Cola from McDonald’s.
(We turn the syrup-to-soda ratio way up!)
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ DXY down → crypto up?
- 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitwise 2025 Crypto Update: Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana Price Predictions w/ Ryan Rasmussen
- 🍪 No capital gains tax?
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Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
DXY DOWN → CRYPTO UP? 📈
Celebrating the failings of others isn’t something we support.
…unless it’s the DXY – in which case, you have full permission to party like Ewok Village at the end of Return Of The Jedi.
(Stormtrooper-helmut-bongos and all.) 👇
The DXY measures the strength of the US dollar – and strangely enough, a weaker dollar is actually a good thing (at least for us crypto investors).
…and guess who’s having their worst first half of the year (H1) in ~4 decades? 🙃
Cool. What was this about a weaker DXY being good for crypto?
The rule goes like this: a weakening dollar is often a positive for risk assets (like crypto), while a strengthening dollar is often a negative.
To quote Tomas from a recent edition of Milk Road Macro:
“There is a strong short-term relationship between the Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin.
But on a roughly three-month lag.
So if DXY is weakening - it’s often good news for Bitcoin roughly three months later.
And if DXY is strengthening - it can often signal bad news ahead for Bitcoin’s price.”
Seriously, check out this correlation:
It’s beautiful, no? 🥲
The cherry on top of it all?
In this particular case, we’re not just looking at a short-term reversal – it’s a break in a multi-year uptrend.
How do we know that? We look for the magic combo:
Break + retest + continuation = break down confirmed.
Aka, this:
(It’s not a guarantee of anything — but we’re heading in the right direction.)
The takeaway:
- The $DXY is telling us to get excited about crypto prices in the short and (potentially) long term.
- It is for this reason that I am going to need a running chest bump from someone.
- Anyone?
- Guys?
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BITWISE’S HEAD OF RESEARCH JUST REVISED HIS 2025 PRICE TARGETS 🧐
As you probably already know – podcasts with the Bitwise crew = quality listening.
On today’s episode of The Milk Road Show, we sat down with Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise.
If you can’t listen right away – here’s a quick TL;DR on a few points:
- Ryan is keeping his $200k price target for Bitcoin in 2025
- He is revising his $ETH 2025 price target down from $7k to ~$4.5k
- He is revising his $SOL 2025 price target down from $750 to $250
- Bitwise now expects 2026 to be the real blow-off top year, not late 2025
But to be honest, that’s just scratching the surface.
We also covered the recent shifts in the macro & regulatory landscape, institutional inflows, the effects of government & corporate adoption of $BTC, and a whole lot more!
Click below to listen now! 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔
The DXY is painting a positive picture of the future…but that’s just one indicator.
What are the others telling us? Time to check in with our trusty cycle indicators.
Knowing where we are in the crypto cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities. The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.
Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.
Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:
🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄
🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️
🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨
Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.
Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.
Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
- Full access to the 6 bull market peak indicators above to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late 📈
- The Milk Road PRO Portfolio, our yield strategies & weekly updates to help you manage investments, allocate capital, take profits, and stay ahead in crypto 📊
- Weekly reports that help you spot early trends, navigate the markets by limiting risk & catch those sweet cha-ching moments 💰
- Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. Don’t miss the monthly live events! 🫂
- Half Off the Crypto Investing Masterclass 📚️
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
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$HYPE, $SOL and $SUI. Those are the three tokens a Nasdaq-listed company is now backing.
No capital gains tax? Ohio just advanced a bill that would exempt crypto transactions under $200 from capital gains tax.
The ETFs don’t seem to care about the Middle East conflict. They’re still raking in inflows, now marking an eight-day streak.
“Two rate cuts in 2025 is still the base case”. That’s a line from today’s Milk Road Macro edition that breaks down everything from the latest FOMC meeting.
We’re hosting a meetup at Permissionless! If you’re hanging around New York next week, come grab a beer with the Milk Road team.
Ever heard of a Bitcoin bank? Xapo Bank is exactly that and we’ve just dropped a deep dive reviewing their platform.
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