Investor Insights - Roader 2023 H2 Outlook

Results from a poll sent to readers of the Milkroad newsletter.

Key Points

• 63% of Roaders see BTC above $35K at year end 📈
• Roaders were net buyers of crypto in H1. Many plan to accumulate more crypto in H2.
• Most Roaders see ETH finishing the year >$2.5K and outperforming BTC. Most see other altcoins underperforming BTC through year end.
• The most common “BTC ETF ETA” among Roaders is sometime in 2024.

Introduction

The Milk Man loves crypto for many reasons. The biggest reason? Sh*t’s always happening. And while many would consider H1 2023 “a relatively quiet first half”, here’s all that’s already gone down in crypto land:

• TradFi heavy hitters joined the spot Bitcoin ETF race. Welcome to the party, suits frens.
• Ordinals introduced NFTs on Bitcoin. And created some drama along the way.
• Ethereum’s Shappella upgrade set off an ETH staking boom. Now ~$45B worth of ETH is staked. Wowza.
• The SEC has emerged as public enemy #1 for crypto investors. #Gary’sGottaGo

Thanks to these (mostly good) developments, the crypto market and sentiment is in wayyy better shape today than it was to start the year.

It reflects in the price also. On a year to date basis (through 6/30):

• BTC was up 84%
• ETH was up 62%
• Alternative Layer-1s (excl. ETH) were up 18%
• DeFi tokens were up 23%

That’s a lot of green. But even after this strong start, we’re far off the highs:

• BTC was still down 56% from its all-time-high
• ETH was 61% below its all-time-high
• Alternative layer-1 and DeFi tokens were ~80% and ~90% off all-time-highs

So, this got the Milk Man thinking: Are the BTC and ETH rallies here to stay? Will altcoins finally start showing some signs of life again? How will regulation impact crypto markets this year? For some help, he “phoned some smart friends”: The Roaders.

As always, they delivered. 175+ Roaders filled out the H2 outlook survey. Danke, Roaders 🙏. Here’s how our Roaders see the rest of the year playing out:

Roader Investor Behavior & Sentiment

We’ve all heard the saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”. Most Roaders took action on that advice in H1. Over half of them (60%) stacked more crypto.

As far as current sentiment is concerned:

• The majority (63%) of Roaders are bullish.
• A good chunk of them (30%) also cathartically responded that they were “pissed at the SEC”.
• Only 6% identified as bearish.

Given this bullish outlook, most Roaders (70%) plan to “smash that buy button” and stack more crypto in H2.

OK, so most Roaders have been stacking crypto. They’re bullish. They plan to stack more. But how bullish?

Price Predictions

Price predictions are kinda like fortune tellers: Fun to listen to, but hard to trust. But they also quantify “bullish” and “bearish” pretty nicely.

Bitcoin

“Orange coin” had a strong start to the year. Many Roaders think it will have a strong end to the year too:

• Most Roaders (72%) think BTC will finish the year between $30K and $50K.
• A bullish minority (14%) think BTC will finish the year >$50K.
• A bearish minority (14%) think BTC will finish the year <$30K.

Ethereum

While BTC has been driving the crypto bus this year, ETH has been along for (most of) the ride.

Its price in BTC terms (i.e., ETH Price / BTC Price) has declined from ~0.072 to ~0.061 through 6/30. In other words, buying ETH on Jan. 1 and hodling it until now would have netted you ~23% less than just buying BTC at that same time. But Roaders think ETH will have an even stronger finish to the year than BTC.

• Most (75%) see ETH finishing the year between $2.5K and $4K.
• A very bullish minority (7%) see ETH finishing the year $4K or higher. That would translate to a >100% return in H2 alone.
• Only 18% see ETH finishing the year <$2K.

Altcoins

Altcoins have faced major hurdles this year. Regulatory crackdowns, exchange delistings, and lack of a compelling narrative were probably the biggest. Roaders don’t see the rest of the year being much better: 42% of them don’t see any major altcoin category outperforming BTC in H2.

For those who do see opportunity, they are concentrating their bets on Alternative Layer-1s, DeFi, and Layer-2s.

Wen Spot Bitcoin ETF?

Spot Bitcoin ETF filings by major TradFi institutions have breathed some (much needed) life into crypto markets. Historically, the SEC has been on a “spot Bitcoin ETF denying spree”. It kicked off in Mar ‘17 when the Winkelvii saw their ETF application denied. And it hasn’t stopped since. But the vast majority of Roaders think that’s gonna change, pronto:

• A meaningful chunk (30%) expect ETF approval this year.
• The majority (54%) expect ETF approval next year.
• A minority (16%) think an ETF is still at least two years away, or not happening at all.

In terms of the timeline, the SEC has until August 12th to approve/deny/extend Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF application. It will need to render a final decision by February 2024 at the latest.

In other words, a bet on an ETF in 2024 is basically a bet that current applications will be extended and later approved.

What About Coinbase and Binance?

In case you forgot, the SEC is still suing two of the largest crypto exchanges: Coinbaseand Binance. When the news broke, altcoins in general took a beating. But most Roaders feel the worst is over:

• The majority (59%) feel the SEC’s regulatory offensive is already priced in.
• A small chunk (16%) feel it could actually be bullish for crypto prices.
• About a quarter (26%) feel the worst may still be to come

In part of these lawsuits, the SEC claimed that certain tokens (e.g., ADA, BNB, MATIC, SOL) are unregistered securities. That raises a couple of (potential) issues for these tokens.

Foremost, Coinbase (and any other crypto exchange for that matter) could choose to delist them. In the past, they’ve done just that. The SEC first alleged XRP was a security in Dec 20. One month later, Coinbase delisted XRP. It has not relisted it since.

This time could be different though. Following the SEC’s allegations, Coinbase stated it has “no plans to delist any of these assets”. Can they actually put their money where their mouth is? Most Roaders think “no”:

• About 60% think Coinbase will delist some or all of the tokens that the SEC has alleged are securities. Yikes.
• About 40% think Coinbase will hold the line and not delist any of them.

If Coinbase actually delisted these tokens (e.g., ADA, MATIC, SOL), trading volumes would (probably) take a hit. Liquidity would (probably) dry up and magnify the impact of any delisting-induced sell pressure. And that would (probably) be bad for prices. Stay safe out there, frens.

The best part about predictions? Revisiting them at the end of the year. Stay tuned for a lookback on these predictions at the end of the year.