GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that does the homework so you can just copy the answers.
Hereβs what weβve got for you today:
- βοΈ Is this alt season?
- ποΈ The Milk Road Show: Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Near Could Be Setting Up for a Massive Rally.
- πͺ Arbitrum's 5 revenue streams.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
96% OF ALTS BEAT BITCOIN. IS THIS ALT SEASON? π
Last month, a whole bunch of tokens ran past Bitcoin.
According to Michael Nadeau (founder of The DeFi Report), 96% of the top 50 coins on CoinMarketCap beat BTC in September, with NEAR and Zcash near the front of the pack.
So is this a confirmed Alt season (a stretch where coins other than Bitcoin outrun it over a 90 day period)?
John (our crypto analyst) asked him on our show last week if this is the real thing.
Nadeau's short answer was no.
His view is that alts got so beaten up in the bear market that they're bouncing back to where they should be - and when fear reverses quickly like that, coins can easily double in a week or two.
About 44% of the money Nadeau put to work during the bear market went into Bitcoin. Today, BTC is only ~25% of his portfolio, because his alts ran so much harder.
He credits one rule for that: stop buying alts just because they're going up.
When Ethena was down 95% and "everyone's trashing it," Nadeau got more interested.
"Getting excited when prices go down is actually the proper strategy."
(Simple on paper, tough in practice.)
Here's how September shook out for a few of the big names π
The official βaltcoin seasonβ scoreboards can't agree though.
On Sept 21, Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal (its gauge for money rotating out of BTC and into alts) flipped to "altcoin season."
A day later, the most-watched Altcoin Season Index (from Blockchaincenter) sat at just 49 - it needs to hit 75 to confirm an alt season.
That index looks back 90 days, so one hot month after a long slump doesn't clear the bar.
So we've got: a strong month, but no confirmed alt season yet.
If the easy money already came off the lows, what do you do now?
Kyle is in the "wait for a dip" camp.
Last Thursday, he told PRO members he thinks the lowest Bitcoin goes is ~$74K. If it gets there, his guess is that "alts will puke," and that's when he'd buy.
His pick for that dip is UNI, which he'd call "an absolute buy" at $6 or less (it's ~$7.44 today).
Caleb Franzen (founder of Cubic Analytics) is even more patient. He told us it's "still too early" for him to go hunting in alts.
Nadeau is watching a higher level for BTC: the 50-week moving average (BTC's average price over the past year) near $78K. He'd call a dip back there "totally normal." π
John is in the other camp.
He doesn't think you'll get good alt entries again, even if BTC slides back toward $70-80K.
The way he sees it: so many new alt ETFs and long-term holders have piled in that alts probably wonβt collapse like they used to.
Both camps seem to want the same thing (quality names with real revenue, bought before the crowd shows up) - they only disagree on the timing.
That's what John did on Sept 28, when he trimmed his SYRUP position (Maple Finance's token) to buy NEAR. He wanted more mid caps for the start of a bull market, and NEAR was "making a lot of money right now."
And that call is already working.
He bought at ~$4.80 on Sept 28 and added at ~$4.88 on Oct 1. NEAR is ~$5.80 today, putting both buys up ~19-21%.
And NEAR still sits ~72% below its ~$20.40 all-time high.
That's what getting in early buys you: room to be wrong on the timing and still sit comfortably in profit.
Try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days to see John's moves as he makes them.
CALLING ALL CRYPTO NERDS π₯
If you wake up and check Bitcoin before the weather, spend too much time on Crypto Twitter, and can actually write, we might have a job for you.
Milk Road is looking for a crypto-focused writer/content creator to join the team.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ
Youβve bought and held. Now prove you can trade. The GMGN Global Championship is free to enter, starts October 16, and ends with a custom Aston Martin for the champion.*
BAT is up 105% since mid-September: Brave just announced new token utility, and its browser has 120M+ users.
W is up ~60% in 24 hours: Ansem called Wormhole undervalued, and RWA infrastructure and tokenomics 2.0 updates fueled the move.
Arbitrum's 5 revenue streams - including rev shares from Orbit chains like Robinhood's.
*this is sponsored content.
