GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that turns "hot take" into "third-degree take."
Hereβs a taste of this weekβs menu:
- π₯ The guy who called the bear is buying.
- π₯΅ Coinbase and Robinhood aren't really onchain.
- πΆοΈ SpaceX is an AI compute company now.
Nvidia's GPUs are sold out. B3 Labs found a way to get them to individual buyers anyway. Watch the interview.
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK π₯
The guy who called the bear is buying again π
Caleb Franzen (Founder of Cubic Analytics) dumped a big chunk of his Bitcoin at $97K last November, took a ton of heat for it, then bought back in between $60K and $75K.
Now he's flipped full bull and says BTC is officially in a new bull market, as long as it holds the 200-day moving average cloud around $71K.
He had a limit order fill at $83K right before the show, and he's eyeing targets as high as $205K.
Caleb's approach: risk taking 15% on the chin for a shot at 130% upside, a trade he'd take "every day of the week and twice on Tuesday."
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Coinbase and Robinhood aren't really onchain π
Simon Baksys (Chief Business Officer at LayerZero) says most of what people call crypto trading is just offchain trading, and he lumps Coinbase and Robinhood right in there.
His pitch for LayerZero's new Zero chain is 1-2M transactions per second, because that's roughly what it takes to run something like the NYSE onchain.
He admits nobody needs that kind of speed to tokenize a bond, but says high-frequency trading does, which is why ICE, Citadel Securities and the DTCC signed on.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
SpaceX is an AI compute company now π
Kyle Reidhead (Head of Research at Milk Road) reckons the funds that don't own SpaceX are still pricing it like a rocket launch company.
His view is that it's really an AI compute business, with recent compute leases going for around $61M per megawatt and gigawatts coming online faster than anyone expected.
Stretch that out to 7.5-10 gigawatts by the end of next year and his bull case lands near $450B in ARR.
That's why Kyle bumped his price target from $260 to $389, and he hasn't even put Starship or Starlink v3 into the model yet.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
THE NEW MINING RIG
Early Bitcoin miners made money by owning the machines and getting paid for the work.
AI has its own version now. The machines are Nvidia GPUs, and the customers are AI labs that can't find enough compute.
We sat down with Victoria Hying, co-founder of B3 Labs, to talk:
- How individuals can own a commercial Nvidia node
- The "GPU mortgage": 30% down, with rent from AI labs helping pay off the rest
- How B3 gets GPUs when everyone says they're sold out
- Why she thinks crypto's real AI play is infrastructure, not agents
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) π₯
You wonβt get good altcoin entries again πͺ³
John Gillen (Milk Road PRO analyst) is sitting at 0% cash, fully deployed into crypto, and calls himself the only guy at the party having a good time.
His call is that we're in a "lockout rally," where the market chops sideways, coils up, rips higher, and never hands you a clean dip.
He doesn't think you'll get good altcoin entries again even if BTC slides back toward $70K, because the tourists already got shaken out and the only ones left are "me and the cockroaches."
And if we get a 15-25% drop? John says he won't blink, he'll just keep adding.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Why own stocks when bonds pay 5.3%? π¦
Martin Toman (Lead Researcher at Milk Road PRO) points out the S&P is sitting at all-time highs while the Milk Road Macro Index has been stuck in risk-off for its longest stretch since launch.
Chips are doing the heavy lifting, while banks, homebuilders, small caps, transports and retailers are all struggling underneath.
He pointed out that the S&P currently trades around 19x earnings, which works out to roughly a 5% return, while 10-year Treasuries pay 5.3% with zero risk.
Martin's holding 20% cash and says if something breaks next week, he'll sell a big chunk before Q3 earnings even land.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ
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Ethereum just settled its first atomic L1-L2 crosschain transaction, skipping the bridges that usually wall off L2s like Arbitrum.
QTC rallied 75% after Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warned the industry to enter bunker mode over AI breaking ECDSA.
Samsung is bringing cross-border USDC transfers to 82M Galaxy devices, letting U.S. users send stablecoins to 60+ countries.
