GM, this is Milk Road, the newsletter that knows that McDonald’s is launching a subscription plan for French Fries, and this is a judgment-free economic zone.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Here we go a Yen.
- ✍️ Trump tariffs European cars.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Macro Show: Energy Is About to Become the Most Valuable Asset on Earth w/ Clem Chambers.
- 🍪 Berkshire's cash pile hit a record $397B.
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Prices as of 10:00 a.m. ET.
HERE WE GO A YEN
The Japanese Yen is currently a rollercoaster.
After weakening past the "line of defense" at ¥160 per dollar, it suddenly jumped 0.9% today, sparking rumors of another massive intervention by the Bank of Japan.
The war chest: Analysis shows Japan likely spent roughly $34.5B (¥5.4T) last week alone to stop the currency's slide.
The warning shot: Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, is staying quiet on the intervention but warned speculators to "keep your smartphone close" because the "decisive action" isn't over.
…okay?
Why it matters: A weak yen makes Japan's energy imports, which are already soaring because of the Iran conflict, insanely expensive.
If Japan can't stabilize the yen, it might be forced to hike interest rates faster than anyone expected. Japan hiking rates would cause the carry trade unwind fears to rise again and put the brakes on a lot of capital.
We’ll keep monitoring the situation.
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TRUMP TARIFFS EUROPEAN CARS
President Trump just hit the "escalate" button on global trade.
Again.
On Friday, he announced that the U.S. is jacking up tariffs on European cars and trucks to 25% next week, up from the 15% rate agreed upon last year.
The beef: Trump says the EU isn’t holding up their end of the "Turnberry Agreement” (name for the U.S.-EU trade deal of 2025, officially known as the Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade).
His message to German automakers is simple: move your factories to the U.S. or pay the tax.
The damage: European auto stocks are getting punished today. Porsche and Mercedes both tumbled around 3%, while Continental dropped over 5%.
The retaliation: Brussels isn't happy. The EU has already called the move "unacceptable" and says they’ve got their own "options open" for a counter-attack.
No bueno.
Why it matters: This reopens a massive layer of "trade risk" to an economy already dealing with a war-driven energy shock. If a full trade war breaks out, the global economy and market prices could be at risk. Things could somehow end up getting even more volatile.
Wrapping up:
The markets are still pumping like everything is fine, yet there are mounting risks on the horizon.
If the trade war cools and the conflict in Iran ends, it’s possible that all of this blows over, and the bull run continues.
However, if more escalation and more conflicts break out, things could pull back.
For the time being, uncertainty and volatility remain elevated, but so do risk asset markets globally.
Enjoy the ride, but be aware of the risk of a sudden stop.
INTRODUCING: MILK ROAD ANALYST PAY DAY 💰
On the first Monday of every month, each of our analysts gets $500 dropped into their portfolio. What they do with it is up to them. Some will put it to work right away, others may sit in cash until markets feel friendlier. Either way, they have to explain their thinking.
It's the same thing a lot of you are already doing, taking a slice of your paycheck and putting it to work. The difference is you get to watch exactly how the analysts think about it, in real time. We cover all of it in a report and a live AMA on the first Wednesday of every month.
Next up on the schedule:
- 📆 May 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
We go live this Wednesday in the Milk Road Discord with John, Melvin and Martin 🫡 Come hear them break down their first Pay Day picks and ask them anything. Submit your questions using this form.
Real Finance Blockchain is an EVM-compatible L1 that is built specifically for RWA tokenization. Read more about Real Finance Blockchain here.
Midnight is a fourth generation blockchain that just launched last week. Check out their launch announcement here.
Pharos is an institution-grade layer 1 (L1) designed specifically to bridge real-world assets onchain. Join the Pharos community (X & Discord) here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
In his first quarter as Berkshire CEO, Greg Abel let Berkshire’s cash pile swell to a record $397B. He’s playing defense, waiting for a "fat pitch" while offloading $8.1B in stocks.
A bipartisan deal was finally reached on stablecoin yield. Passive "bank-like" yield is out, but "activity-based" rewards are in. This clears the path for a major Senate markup on May 11.
Tether Gold (XAU₮) reserves jumped 36% in Q1, pushing its market value past $3.3B. Investors are ditching digital fluff for "hard assets" as the energy crisis drags on.
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