🥛 Why is Robinhood's stock stuck? 🤔

GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that's the friendly ghost haunting your inbox with alpha.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ Same $100 stock, much bigger company.
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🍪 Sid Powell: The capitulation in crypto right now is the highest I’ve ever seen.

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Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.

SAME $100 STOCK, MUCH BIGGER COMPANY 📈

Robinhood (HOOD) opened today at ~$100.

That's pretty much exactly where it traded a year ago.

Which is strange, because the company underneath that stock has grown up a lot in 12 months.

Here are the year-over-year numbers:

Revenue: $2.95B to $4.5B (+53%).
Platform assets: $255B to $377B (+48%).
Funded customers: 25.9M to 27.7M.
Net deposits: $69B over the last 12 months.

(Same $100 stock, much bigger company.) 👇

Source: @KyleReidhead

And the growth is speeding up - with the newest, fastest-growing lines doing the heavy lifting:

May equity volumes: +75% year over year.
Margin book: +117% (the money Robinhood lends customers to trade with, and earns interest on).
Event contracts (aka: prediction markets): ~$0.3B traded a year ago, $3.9B in May (roughly 13x).

This is a company that grew revenue 53%, grew its asset base 48%, and more than doubled its margin book.

Yet the stock went nowhere…

There's a clean explanation for that chasm, and it has almost nothing to do with Robinhood…

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SAME $100 STOCK, MUCH BIGGER COMPANY (P2) 📈

HOOD is flat for two reasons, and neither is about the business.

First, the multiple contraction…

The "multiple" is what the market pays for each dollar of earnings, and a year ago it paid up for HOOD. Today it pays less for the same growth, so the price sits still while the company keeps running.

Second, HOOD is momentum-beta.

Translation: it moves with the risk-on, risk-off tide. When traders dump risky stuff, HOOD gets sold with everything else, no matter how its own numbers look.

That's what happened last week. HOOD fell 11% with zero company-specific bad news behind it.

Then there's Robinhood Chain…

It’s an Ethereum L2 with tokenized stocks trading in 120+ countries, and agentic trading built in - all of which is pointed at nearly 28M funded customers.

Source: @RobinhoodCrypto

The potential here is to take Robinhood global.

But you need to keep your head on straight with this one…

Folks are annualizing a few days of chain fees into $45M a year. That's not happening. Most of that early volume is memecoins, and those fees always dry up in weeks or months.

In reality - Robinhood Chain is a slow, multi-year build to tokenize assets and wire them into the app, the same path Coinbase is walking. That's the thing that eventually moves the stock.

(Chain-fee hype won't.)

What matters more is the diversification: margin, event contracts, gold, banking, and now a chain of their own. Far broader than last cycle.

Point being: you're being handed a company roughly 50% bigger and far more diversified at last year's price, because sentiment unwound, not because anything broke.

PRO members got the call to buy HOOD at $35 last year. They're up multiples already.

Goldman just moved its target to $137 and Morgan Stanley to $124.

The next step toward those targets gets decided July 29, when Q2 earnings drop.

Mark your calendars.

P.S. M0xt is dropping his full pre-earnings read inside Milk Road PRO before the call, join Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days to get it the moment it drops.

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Mert: 10% of Bitcoin's market cap is a 'conservative' ZEC target. "Zcash is smaller than Dogecoin. Smaller than Tron, smaller than pretty much anything in the top 10."

Lyn Alden: boring, cash-flowing businesses are the perfect foundation for BTC treasuries: Most BTC treasuries don't have cash flows - and that's a weakness.

Sid Powell: The capitulation in crypto right now is the highest I’ve ever seen (even as fundamentals are the best they've ever been).

If you hold HOOD, read this. Robinhood has grown into an all-in-one platform for stocks, crypto, IRAs, prediction markets, credit cards and advanced trading tools.