GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter where John drops in on Tuesdays to give you a macro check-up like a weird doctor who means something very different when he says, “painful inflation.”
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Risk on goes on.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin Miners Just Found a Way to 10x Their Business.
- 🍪 Jan Van Eck wants both Bitcoin and gold in his portfolio.
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RISK ON GOES ON
The Milk Road Macro Index has flipped to RISK ON.
Hold for applause.
Well actually, it’s been RISK ON since last week, but as of the time of writing, it’s already pulling back a tiny bit.
Before you start booing, let me explain.
The headline allocation posture fell from +0.43 (yesterday) to +0.30 (today).
The macro buffer held at +0.50 and stress at +0.00, but both inputs are about to face tests. Specifically, tomorrow’s July CPI and the August 14th GDPNow revision.
The stakes on CPI are sharper now. Even if the topline print shows some cooling, there could still be things in the data that tip inflation worries.
Consensus sits around 0.32% for month-over-month, which is above the roughly 0.20% run rate our framework treats as the inflation tipping point.
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RISK ON GOES ON
What does that mean?
It means even an in-line print could push the inflation direction metric off zero at the exact moment growth impulses are already at their weakest reading in weeks.
That combination would not be good. Positive inflation direction alongside a fragile real economy score is what our framework penalizes hardest. That would probably push the index back into CAUTION.
However, a genuinely soft CPI reading, 0.20% or below month-over-month, would relieve that pressure and let the August 14th GDPNow revision absorb the payrolls miss on its own terms, keeping the posture where it is or allowing a modest recovery.
Bottom line
The market is still bullish for now, but the CPI print could threaten that.
Overall, though, it seems like the bull run in markets will continue.
What does that mean for crypto?
Well, the Clarity Act could pass in September. ETF inflows have picked up again. Saylor selling isn’t moving the price down anymore. Everyone is expecting a bottom in Bitcoin by October.
Now is the time to start looking at what role you want crypto to play in your portfolio and planning your allocation for the next bull run.
Don’t wait until it’s obvious or you’ll be chasing a runaway train.
If you want to see how I’m navigating this, you can join Milk Road PRO and check out my portfolio for just a buck!
In the meantime, stay safe, stay educated, and stay bullish!
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Attaboy Jan! Jan Van Eck wants both Bitcoin and gold in his portfolio. Even though people often relate the two assets with each other, he views them as different.
Lyn Alden: The real rates framework for valuing gold is misleading, you should be using dilution rates instead.
Jansen Tang: The biggest unsolved problem in agentic commerce is trust between machines. Here’s what will fix it.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛
VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
