GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that's the concierge for your crypto journey.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ It’s sit n’ wait season.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Bull Case for a Multi Trillion Dollar Altcoin Market.
- 🍪 Novogratz: Crypto was never really about technology.
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IT’S ‘SIT AND WAIT’ SEASON
As always, each Monday we lock the Milk Road team in a (virtual) room, pull up a bunch of charts, and argue about what the week has in store.
(Then hand you a summary of what went down in this here newsletter.)
Here's what we covered this week:
I kicked things off half-annoyed…
I’d spent the weekend getting notifications about Bitcoin and Ethereum ticking green, and figured maybe the ceiling was finally going to give way to a real move.
So John pulled up the one-week Bitcoin chart and asked the room a simple question: does that look like it’s going up, down, or sideways?
(Sideways. The answer was sideways.)
Bitcoin's been pancaking between ~$62K and ~$65K for the past couple of weeks. It dips to the $63k range, bounces back into the $64k region, dip, bounce, dip, bounce…
No real price action over a ~14 day time frame.
John's guess: we get rejected and break down from where we are right now (it's just going to take its sweet time getting there).
Two things could shove us one way or the other:
1. The FOMC meeting on July 29: a surprise rate hike would likely knock everything lower.
2. The CLARITY Act: we should know by early August whether it clears the Senate before summer recess.
Until then, John's plan is to sit on his hands:
‘Let the market come to you, set your bids, don't chase.’
Which is when I floated a bigger question…
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IT’S ‘SIT AND WAIT’ SEASON (P2)
For six months the talking heads of crypto have been yapping about how AI killed the crypto trade.
(With all the money and attention getting sucked into the mega-cap firms building in AI.)
But of late, I feel like I’ve been seeing the conversation progress - ever so slightly.
Hyperscaler free cash flow is looking set to go negative next year, and I’m starting to see those same talking heads whisper about a potential rotation out of AI and into other (more un-loved) risk assets over the next 12 months…
(Including, but not limited to: crypto.)
The thing is - I’m not sure if that narrative has any legs to it, or if it's still just ‘astrology for finance bros.’
John’s response:
Yes, money will eventually rotate out of AI (up-only isn't a permanent state of being in markets) - but he tempered my hopes on the clean-rotation story.
A pile of assets across equities, precious metals, and crypto currently sit mispriced because all the capital that’s crowding into AI - so it’s not going to be a ‘crypto only’ story.
(Hey, I can work with that!)
The most reassuring part: crypto isn't the overleveraged trade at the moment.
That title belongs to Korean retail investors piled into chip names like SK Hynix.
So if crypto grinds lower from here, it's a test of patience more than a threat of a cascade.
The names at the top of John’s shopping list (if/when we get a further pullback):
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Sky, and Solana.
For now, the bids are set and we're waiting on Bitcoin to make its next move down.
John's been posting his live entry levels inside Milk Road PRO, along with the rest of our analysts.
If you want to catch their next entries - try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days!
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
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Tom Lee: Impatience is the single most expensive mistake you can make in markets right now.
Novogratz: Crypto was never really about technology. It was about gambling. "They [users] didn't want 12% returns. They wanted 12,000% returns."
Lyn Alden: BTC has been trading like software all year - down, while semis ripped. But that correlation isn’t fundamental…
Which crypto exchanges publish proof of reserves? Bitget has been reporting monthly since December 2022.**
**this is partner content.
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