GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that breaks down the biggest moves in crypto so you can make smarter calls.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ The big BTC buyers are underwater.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Lyn Alden: Bitcoin Has Bottomed - But When Will It Break Out?
- 🍪 Kraken's parent eyes Hyperliquid.
Chainlink is bringing tokenized finance to New York. Attendance is by application, and seats are limited.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
THE BIG BITCOIN BUYERS ARE UNDERWATER 🤿
Bitcoin dipped under $80K yesterday, to its lowest level since July.
On its own, that's just another rough day in a rough month.
But ~$80K also happens to be what two of the biggest groups of Bitcoin buyers paid for their coins.
John walked through the price levels he's watching in yesterday's edition, so today we're looking at who's sitting at those levels.
Here are the two groups that matter, per Glassnode:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF holders paid ~$81.5K per coin on average.
- Bitcoin treasury companies paid ~$80.2K.
That average purchase price is called the cost basis, and Bitcoin has spent the past two days hovering just below both of them.
Glassnode says a daily close under $80K would put the average ETF and treasury holder at a loss, with Monday's close (~$80.2K) dodging that by a hair.
And these are big holders…
Spot ETFs manage ~$100B, and Strategy alone holds 848,517 BTC.
Glassnode also warned that a break under the ETF level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.
The chart below shows why this spot is so awkward for Bitcoin. 👇
At the time of this writing, the True Market Mean (the average price active investors paid) of ~$77.6K sits just below Bitcoin’s current price - while above it, there's a crowd of recent buyers.
People who bought in the past 6-12 months paid ~$86.7K, and Glassnode has pointed out that rallies keep running into holders happy to sell near breakeven.
I.e. there's support a couple thousand dollars lower, and a pile of sellers waiting higher up.
Normally, a big buyer steps back in when price falls to what they paid.
Trouble is, one of these two groups has already stopped buying...
CHAINLINK IS BRINGING TOKENIZED FINANCE TO NEW YORK
Banks, asset managers, and market infrastructure firms are already putting financial assets onchain.
On October 29, Chainlink is bringing the people building that infrastructure together in New York for Link:NYC.
The focus? What’s already working, what’s still holding institutions back, and what’s next for tokenized assets and cross-chain settlement.
Attendance is by application, and seats are limited.
THE BIG BITCOIN BUYERS ARE UNDERWATER (P2) 🤿
First up, the treasury companies.
Glassnode says corporate buying hasn't come back even as price recovered, and monthly purchases since June have run at less than 10% of their November 2024 peak.
Strategy (the biggest of them) didn't buy a single Bitcoin last week - it spent ~$205M buying back STRC, one of its preferred stocks, instead.
That's a fine move for Strategy shareholders, but it means one of Bitcoin's most reliable buyers is sitting this dip out.
The ETFs are a different story.
Last week they took in ~$1.07B from Monday to Wednesday, then lost ~$774M on Thursday and Friday as prices slid, though still finishing the week with ~$301M of net inflows.
Then on Monday, as Bitcoin dipped under $80K, they bought another ~$110M (all of it through BlackRock's IBIT).
October as a whole is down ~$204M, which sounds bad until you compare it to this spring's selloff. 👇
Source: Farside Investors, TFTC
As Bitcoin slid toward ~$64K by early July, ETFs pulled ~$6.9B across May and June.
Then ~$6.1B came back in during August and September.
October's outflow is a rounding error by comparison (so far, anyway) - and Glassnode's onchain data backs that up.
Long-term holders have largely stopped selling at a loss, and Bitcoin hasn't closed below its Realized Price (the average price paid for every coin in circulation), which it did in both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
All told, the big holders are bruised, but they're still holding.
Kyle (our Head of Research) got asked in Discord yesterday whether a bear market is coming - his answer:
- He thinks we're early in a bull market, but expects a bigger pullback first, with Bitcoin dipping to the mid-$70s.
- If that happens, he expects altcoins to have "one final puke," and he plans to buy back into bluechips like UNI, AAVE and SKY (the old MakerDAO).
- He's holding his crypto stocks (COIN, GLXY and HOOD), which he says are sitting very oversold.
He and Martin also raised cash back in September, before this pullback started, so the dry powder is ready.
If Bitcoin holds the ~$77.6K True Market Mean, any underwater ETF and treasury holders become more of a short-term headache.
If it loses it, Kyle dusts off his shopping list.
Btw - when Kyle makes those buys, you'll see them in his PRO portfolio the moment they happen. Try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days.
LYN ALDEN ON BTC’S HOLDING PATTERN
Oil is back above $110, the 10-year just hit its highest level since 2002, and the Fed is hiking. Bitcoin still hasn't broken down.
Lyn Alden, macro investor, author of Broken Money and co-founder of Orange Juice, joined John to explain why.
Here's what we covered:
- Why more Fed hikes could actually make inflation worse.
- What oil above $100 means for stocks, bonds and Bitcoin over the next six months.
- How Orange Juice plans to buy small businesses and back them with a Bitcoin treasury.
👉 Watch the full episode now.
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Every $BTC to $ETH swap is a taxable event. But inside a crypto IRA, it generally isn't. Here's how Roth and Traditional crypto IRAs work (and the catches).*
Kraken's parent eyes Hyperliquid: Payward plans to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer there via Bitnomial, though nothing is approved or live yet.
Coinbase is losing U.S. spot share: It slipped to ~48% in Q3 from ~53% in Q2, while Kraken has 33% and Robinhood 17%.
Bitmine hasn't missed a week: It has bought ETH weekly since June 2025 and now holds 6.05M ETH, or 4.95% of supply.
*this is sponsored content.
