🥛 The 'rally' was leverage in a costume 🎭

GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that makes Hot Ones look like a tea party.

Here’s a taste of this week’s menu:

🔥 Gold isn't in a mania, the dollar is just dying.
🥵 The 'rally' was just leverage in a costume.
🌶️ The next AI bottleneck isn't chips, it's rockets.

Nexo is back in the U.S. - and new clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier perks! Higher yields, lower borrowing rates, and crypto cashback - start here.

HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK 🔥

Gold isn't in a mania, the dollar is just dying 🪦

Matthew Piepenburg (Partner at Von Greyerz AG) basically slapped down anyone calling gold a bubble at $4,700 an ounce.

"It is not a bull market in gold. It is a bear market in paper money."

Matthew pointed out central banks have been net stacking gold and dumping treasuries since 2014, and that activity went exponential after the U.S. weaponized the dollar against Russia in 2022.

Central bank gold buying is up 5x since then, JP Morgan's now projecting $8,300 gold, and nearly half of last year's 3,800 tons of global production went straight to central banks.

His advice to people who want exposure?

Skip the ETFs and bank custody entirely - hold physical bullion in a place like Switzerland or Singapore.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.

The 'rally' was just leverage in a costume 🎭

Julio Moreno (Head of Research at CryptoQuant) came on the show right as BTC tagged the 200-day moving average around $82k and immediately rolled over.

His read: this whole ~37% run from the Feb lows was a bear market rally, not the real thing.

The proof is in the onchain data - spot demand was contracting the entire time, while perps and speculative flows did all the heavy lifting.

Julio says the first real support test will hit at $70k, and the trend won’t actually change until spot demand grows.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.

The next AI bottleneck isn't chips, it's rockets 🚀

Daniel MaGuire (Researcher at ARK Invest) laid out a thesis that says orbital data centers are about to become the cheapest way to get AI compute.

… and SpaceX has a 10-year head start on everyone.

SpaceX is now responsible for ~85% of all kilograms launched to orbit, and Starship full reusability could drop launch costs from $1,000/kg to under $100/kg.

Elon thinks Starship can launch 100 gigawatts of orbital power per year - "the equivalent of launching roughly all of the nuclear facilities in the United States today, annually."

Once you get to the moon and use a mass driver instead of rockets, that number jumps to 100 terawatts a year (~100,000 nuclear reactors worth).

His investment angle for the rest of us mortals:

Small modular reactor plays like Oklo and X-Energy, plus launch infrastructure names like Rocket Lab.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.

CRYPTO SHOULD WORK HARDER FOR YOU

Most people hold crypto and hope.

The smart money? They're earning interest on it, borrowing against it without selling, and trading it.

Where can you do the same all in one place? Nexo.

And right now, new U.S. clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier (benefits normally reserved for loyalty program members):

Enhanced interest rates on your digital assets
Lower borrowing costs against your crypto
Up to 0.5% cashback on trades

No need to sell to access liquidity. No juggling 5 different platforms.

👉 Get started here

*Disclaimer: Geographic restrictions and terms apply.

HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) 🔥

3% of $7T is a lot of bitcoin 🚂

Ric Edelman (Founder of Edelman Financial Engines) didn't mince words on Morgan Stanley’s recommended 3% BTC allocation.

"3% of $7T is going to cause bitcoin's price to rise massively. And when that happens, it's going to create a flywheel effect."

But the spicier take from Ric was his pushback on the entire financial planning industry - he's calling the 60/40 glide path "dead" because nobody's running their models for clients living to 100.

His replacement? 80/20 equity-heavy portfolios, with at least 10% in crypto - and up to 40% for growth-oriented investors with long horizons.

He's still holding his $500k 2030 price target for BTC.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.

The bankers are bluffing 🃏

Alex Thorn (Head of Firm-wide Research at Galaxy Digital) didn't hold back on the American Bankers Association lobbying against the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield compromise.

His take: "I think they're being disingenuous. They're playing a cynical game."

The banks' big scary argument is "deposit flight" - that yield-bearing stablecoins will gut their business.

Alex pushed back hard with Galaxy's new model showing the opposite:

Foreign inflows into the U.S. banking system would actually exceed domestic deposit migration by 2-to-1, and every dollar of stablecoin issuance creates roughly 32-39 cents of new U.S. Treasury demand.

So the bankers' own argument is basically "our product is so bad people won't use it if there's a better option, please protect us."

🎙️ Listen to the full episode here.

PRO INSIGHT OF THE WEEK 🔮

This week, we’ve got a PSA from our Head of Research, Kyle Reidhead:

“Just wanted to share that I think we're about to see a big moment happen in markets with Trump and all of these CEOs going to China.

I believe we are on the verge of something really big happening in terms of this AI infra build out and global geopolitics.

I obviously don't know exactly what they are talking about, but it’s likely making a stronger deal with China to end the Iran war, find a way forward with supply chains and chips, etc.

This could/would take a LOT of risk out of the market and if it works, it could also drive the price of oil much lower (which China wants/needs).

Markets have been spooked because of hot CPI and PPI, but if we get deals here, and the price of oil goes lower, then CPI and PPI will drop fast too as that is the bulk of the inflation right now.

So if you're on the sidelines I think now is a good time to get in on assets.

Just wanted to share this in case you're still on the fence (obviously don't go crazy because there is a chance that no deal gets done - but trends with Trump show they usually do - so I'm optimistic).”

P.S. This was from Wednesday of this past week.

If you want direct access to our PRO analyst team, so you can get these insights & signals in real-time:

👉 Try 7 days of Milk Road PRO, for a buck!