GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that opens the proverbial kimono, so you can see how we’re approaching the market.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ What would make us sell
- ✍️ 3 Coinbase product leaks
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How Robinhood Crypto Plans to Compete With Coinbase (And Win) w/ Johann Kerbrat
- 🍪 Prediction markets, so hot rn
Fuse is a $300M ARR energy company launching The Energy Network on Solana. Discover the future of energy now.
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.
WHAT WOULD MAKE US SELL 🚨
Yesterday, we talked about the value of committing to your thesis.
Today, we want to do the opposite. Because no thesis is bulletproof.
All thesis’ should have a breaking point at which point you say, "That's it, I'm done, I'm out".
(Because without clear guardrails, you're just operating on hope — and hope is not a strategy.)
So, here are the four key factors that make up our thesis’ breaking point:
1/ A big jump in inflation
If inflation starts ripping up and to the right, that means the Fed is probably going to have to raise interest rates again in order to fight it.
(Higher rates = more costly loans = less loans being taken/more being spent on repayments = less money in people’s pockets = less incentive for businesses to inflate their prices.)
Now, according to Truflation, U.S. inflation has been ticking up since April – but not at a rate that's a cause for concern just yet. 🤝
While we’re on the topic of interest rates…
2/ Interest rates increasing instead of decreasing
Some of the recent price declines we've seen across the stock and crypto markets have been attributed to the fact that there was rising uncertainty around a December rate cut.
On Wednesday, the Polymarket odds of a December rate reduction violently flipped from "we're getting one" to "rates will remain unchanged" – which didn't help the market.
Good news is, as of today, we saw another violent flip (this time in our favor), with chances of a December cut ripping back up to 67%. 👇
3/ QT turning back on instead of ending as planned
Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a needlessly complex term, but basically it means this:
The Federal Reserve has a habit of buying up U.S. treasury bills (aka: Government IOUs).
For example: they might buy a bunch of 1 year bills that return 3-4% over a year.
At the end of that one-year term, they can either get their money back or reinvest it in more bills.
If they decide to take that money back (and out of the market), that's a form of QT – i.e. pulling money out of the system, which helps to slow economic growth in overheated markets.
4/ The dollar rising significantly
The mechanics of this are, er, complicated…
But an oversimplified explanation of what this means is:
If the U.S. dollar goes up in value, it gives big-dog investors less incentive to move out of dollars and into risk assets (like crypto) in order to find gains.
(Dollar up = bad for crypto. Dollar down = good for crypto.)
If you read yesterday's edition of Milk Road Macro, you'll know that the U.S. dollar has been curling back up in price as of late.
Which ain’t great! But it’s not cause for real concern just yet:
Ok, those are the big four.
But of course there are also wildcards, like:
- The Market Structure Bill not getting approved (which would prevent institutional investors from putting money into crypto outside of the ETFs)
- News that an exchange like Coinbase or Binance is going under
- Another FTX-level-fraud being revealed
Good news is, so far, all of these thesis-breaking factors are in relatively safe spots.
(Phew!) 🧘♂️
A NEW FOUNDATION FOR THE GRID
Is this the most legit energy company to ever enter crypto?
Fuse is a $300M ARR UK utility powering 200,000+ homes - and now it’s launching The Energy Network, a new digital layer engineered to scale our grids and save billions in costs.
It’s real infrastructure, not speculation - connecting homes and devices to make power smarter, cheaper, and more efficient.
One of the highest-revenue DePIN projects in crypto - and it’s still pre-launch.
3 LEAKED PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM COINBASE 💧
Pssst… did you hear?
3 announcements from Coinbase’s Dec 17 product announcement have apparently leaked.
Here’s what you missed:
1/ Stock trading
Which equities are going to be available if/when this launches? No idea.
But if these are traditionally traded stocks (i.e. using real stock exchanges instead of onchain stock equivalents), we’d guess most equities will be available at launch.
2/ Prediction markets
At this point, it feels like everyone is launching their own prediction market platform (or at the very least, partnering with one of the leaders in the space).
The difference with Coinbase is: they have a massive amount of users – so anything they introduce themselves has a competitive edge from day one.
3/ An AI assistant
I… I… I can’t bring myself to really care about this one.
But I’m sure my dad will appreciate being able to get quick answers to his crypto questions, instead of, you know, texting me.
(Hey, maybe I will find benefit in this?)
The ‘huge if true’ feature-add here (in our opinion): stock trading.
It might fall into the "nice edition, but not a game-changer” category for most crypto investors – but globally, we're the minority.
Most people’s portfolios are focused on equities – sure, they might sprinkle in a little crypto here and there – but stocks hold center stage for most investors.
This opens Coinbase up to a massive new market and helps it compete with the likes of Robinhood – which, so far in 2025, has been doing absolute numbers. 👇
We’re crossing our fingers, toes, and eyes in hopes that these leaks are legit.
P.S. We hold Coinbase and Robinhood in our PRO All Access Portfolio – if you want to know how much we’re allocating to each, go PRO All Access!
PRO EMERGENCY UPDATE 🚨
Bitcoin just crashed to $80,000 this morning.
Yes, 80k. A level nobody thought possible just a month ago.
So we pulled together a special Emergency Market Update from our co-owner, Kyle Reidhead, breaking down what we got wrong, what we got right, and where the market is going.
Inside this quick-but-critical update:
- Why Bitcoin broke trend while equities held up
- How we're seeing a "growth scare" not a full-blown recession
- How the DXY, Fed policy, and liquidity are driving near-term risk
- Tactical advice on what to hold, cut, and how to position your portfolio now
Click below to watch it now! 👇️
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
We just gave our crypto-backed loans page a fresh new look. We reviewed the top platforms, compared the rates, and even crowned our official Milk Road Pick.*
DAT-a-geddon: Crypto treasury firms have seen almost half of their combined market caps disappear in this latest crash.
Prediction markets, so hot rn. Kalshi’s valuation just hit $11B after a reported $1B raise.
In any other market, this would be huge! Bitwise's Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) has reached $500M in AUM in its first 18 days of trading.
HyperLiquid competitor + airdrop incoming. edgeX is a perp DEX that's been recording some serious volume recently.*
*this is sponsored content.
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