🥛 Big month ahead (if gov reopens) 🤔

GM. This is Milk Road, your crypto secretary (we take what’s important and add it to your calendar).

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ What to look out for this month
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Reason Bitcoin Is Stuck... What Everyone’s Missing About This Market w/ Scott Melker
🍪 We’re hiring an AI Investment Analyst & Writer

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Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS MONTH 📆

Alright, we’ve got a big ol’ month ahead of us!

So let’s cut the pleasantries and jump straight into things:

1/ Macro 🌎

We’ve got a whooole bunch of macro events on this month’s calendar… or at least, we might.

It all depends on whether or not the government shutdown ends.

Below is a list of this month’s macro events, with asterisks next to those that could be affected by the shutdown:

ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday – Are manufacturing purchasing managers buying up materials in preparation for economic expansion?
ADP Nonfarm Payrolls data – Wednesday – How many jobs were added or lost in the US economy over the last month, excluding farm workers
MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday – What mood are consumers in (are they ready to shop, or pinch pennies)?
*Consumer Price Index (CPI) – November 13 – A narrow measure of inflation of consumer goods and services
*Producer Price Index (PPI) – November 14 – A measure of wholesale inflation
FOMC Minutes Release – November 19 – What did the Fed talk about behind closed doors in their last meeting?
*Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – November 26 – A broad measure of inflation of consumer goods and services (aka: the Fed’s preferred inflation metric)
*New Home Sales – November 26 – Are people buying new homes, and at what rate?
*GDP Q3 2025 (Second Estimate) – November 26 – Did the US economy expand or contract in Q3?

Yuh. More asterisks than we’d like to see.

And because of this potential restriction in economic data – chances of a December rate cut (which would likely lift market prices) aren’t as strong as they once were:

Source: CME Group

Read this absolute heater of a Macro PRO Report to get a deeper understanding of where we’re headed.

2/ Government 🏛️

Speaking of the government shutdown…

This is something worth watching because it adds uncertainty to the market, and any sudden resolution or further deterioration could trigger market volatility.

So when can we expect it to end?

Our crystal ball is in the shop, but thankfully, we have Polymarket in the interim.

Right now, betting markets are telling us not to hold our breath – with the predicted end to the shutdown being December 2nd:

Source: Polymarket

Ok, not inspiring a ton of optimism for November… let’s fix that.

Keep scrolling to the next segment and we’ll take a look at the earnings reports and potential chart movements coming down the pike.

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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS MONTH (P2) 📆

Where were we?

Oh right, potential bullish catalysts for the month of November:

3/ Earnings 💰

~20% of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week – here’s what we’re looking at, across a range of market sectors:

Crypto: Robinhood, Hut 8
AI: Palantir, AMD, ARM
Animal spirits: Draft Kings, Beyond Meat (the new meme stock)

Source: @eWhispers

4/ Charts 📈

It’s the biggest month of the year for crypto prices (at least, historically)!

On average, Bitcoin has seen an average return of 42.31% in November. 👇

Source: Coinglass

If those averages were to be met this time around, that would put BTC at around $155k by the end of the month – breaking the 8yr trend line we’ve been tracking over the past 3 months.

Source: TradingView

(This would flip the white resistance line into support, meaning the price would struggle to break below it, instead of struggling to break above it).

Now, in a perfect world, we’d also see altcoins start to move up at the same time, and actually outperform Bitcoin by comparison (aka: we’d see an alt season).

This is the ‘perfect world’ scenario because if Bitcoin is moving up, but its market dominance (tracked by BTC.D) is going down – it means the broader crypto market is pumping along with it.

We believe we’ll need to see the Market Structure Bill & Clarity Act get passed before anything outside of the major coins/tokens can really start to run — but looking just purely at the charts…

Back when BTC.D’s 3yr uptrend first broke to the downside (bullish for altcoins) in August, we said:

“If we were to see a super healthy, by-the-book pattern play out here, it would go something like:

BTC.D breaks down a little further → runs back up to retest the old trend line → before continuing down → until BTC represents ~40-50% of the total crypto market value.”

And so far, so good:

Source: TradingView

One thing we’re watching that could help nudge BTC.D down further is the billions of potential upside liquidation on Ethereum.

See all the greenish/yellow bars that sit above the price candles on the chart below?

Source: Coinglass

If/when Ethereum’s price hits those bars, each hit will trigger tens-of-millions of forced buying pressure, helping to push ETH’s price up even further.

(Inversely, if it hits the same greenish/yellow bars below the current price candles, it will trigger forced selling – pushing the price down).

Right now, there’s more greenish/yellow bars (aka: opportunity) above the price than there are below – meaning market movers are incentivized to:

Buy ETH → push the price up → trigger forced buying (pushing prices even higher) → get rewarded with greater profits.

(But this is all just potential for now.)

Phew, ok. We got through it.

That’s everything we’re looking at right now – as always:

Mark your calendars and make your respective blood offerings to the crypto gods.