🥛 Bitcoin dropped 5% (here's why) 🚨

GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that’s as comforting as a hoodie on a cold morning.

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ The reason why crypto fell today
✍️ What to look out for in December
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Will Bitcoin Drop to $56K? How to Survive the Downtrend w/ Matt Crosby
🍪 Bitcoin to $50k?!

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Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.

HERE’S WHY CRYPTO FELL TODAY 🚨

Woke up. Felt good. Manifested that December will be crypto’s month.

*checks phone*

DAMMIT, I JINXED IT.

Bitcoin dropped 5% along with the broader crypto market. 👇

Source: TradingView

The main reason behind this crash? Japan’s interest rate decision.

There’s now a 73% chance of a rate hike on December 19th. Yep, a rate hike. Not a rate cut.

That single shift pushed Japan’s 2-year yield to 1.84%, the highest since 2008.

Translation: Japanese markets are in extreme fear.

Now you might be thinking, “Why does Japan’s rate hike impact crypto assets?”.

Because it threatens the decades-old Yen Carry Trade.

Here’s the simple version:

Traders borrow trillions of yen at 0% interest
They invest that money in higher-yielding assets (like U.S. treasuries)
They pocket risk-free returns

But now, if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) increases interest rates, traders will no longer be able to borrow yen at 0% interest rate breaking the Yen Carry Forward Trade.

When the carry trade unwinds, traders rush to de-risk which pushes BTC down (this happened in August 2024 as well).

If all of that felt a bit too technical, here’s all you need to understand:

Source: @Fixcalifornia

And now comes the most important question: Should you be panicking?

Nope. This sell-off has nothing to do with crypto fundamentals. It’s pure macro turbulence, and equities dipped on the same news.

Nothing in crypto is broken. Our 2026 thesis is still intact.

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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR IN DECEMBER 👀

Day 1 of December = not great for crypto.

But the rest of the month still has huge potential. Here are the biggest catalysts coming up in December. 👇

1/ Fed rate cut (December 10th)

A December rate cut is basically locked in with odds sitting at 87%.

But the real focus won’t be the cut itself… it’ll be what Powell signals about 2026.

There’s still major uncertainty around next year’s rate cuts, so markets will be dissecting every word from JPow. The new Fed chair is pro rate cuts so we’re feeling optimistic on this front.

Source: CMEgroup

2/ Bank of Japan’s rate decision (December 19th)

We covered this in the lead story, but here’s the quick version:

There’s a 73% chance the BOJ hikes rates.

If that happens, the decades-long Yen Carry Trade (a huge driver of global liquidity) could unwind even further.

Source: Polymarket

3/ QT ending, light QE restarting (December 1st)

Quantitative Tightening (QT) officially ends at midnight tonight meaning the Fed stops draining liquidity from the system.

Even better: light Quantitative Easing (QE), which adds liquidity to the economy, is set to restart soon.

4/ Solana Breakpoint (December 11-13)

One of the biggest Solana events of the year, Solana Breakpoint, is set to kick off in Abu Dhabi in ten days.

Historically, Breakpoint delivers a pile of catalysts for the Solana ecosystem which pushes the price of SOL upwards.

I wouldn’t be complaining if that happens this time around as well.

December is stacked with events that could impact crypto prices. Now we just cross our fingers and hope they’re impacted in the direction we want. 🤞

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