🥛 BTC hits $90k but here's the problem 😬

GM. This is Milk Road. Happy Turkey day to everyone who celebrates. 🦃

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ The current rally might be short-lived
✍️ Bitcoin is moving closely with rate cut odds
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Arthur Hayes’ Crypto Outlook: Why Markets Are Set to Rip Into 2026
🍪 Upbit was hacked for $37M this morning

Fuse is a $300M ARR energy company launching The Energy Network on Solana. Discover the future of energy now.

Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.

THIS MINI-PUMP MIGHT BE SHORT LIVED 😢

Here’s some ammunition to flex at your Thanksgiving dinner tonight:

Bitcoin is back above $90,000
ETF flows are making a comeback
Total crypto market cap is well above $3T

But… there’s a problem with this mini-pump.

We don’t think we’re marching straight back to $100,000 just yet. (Probably not a good idea to bring this up at dinner tonight.)

Here are 3 reasons why this rally might be short-lived:

1/ Bitcoin is right on the edge of its long-term trend line

Approx 2 weeks ago, BTC broke below its long-term trend line and stayed under for multiple days for the first time ever.

Now it’s climbing back up… but it’s exactly at the doorstep of that trend line.

Historically, when charts break below a major trend, the first attempt to re-enter usually hits resistance.

And that’s the wall Bitcoin is running into right now.

Source: TradingView

2/ Initial lows often get retested

We saw this during the March-April pullback:

Markets bottomed → Had a mini-rally → But then retested the lows.

It might sound bearish, but this is actually a normal, healthy pattern as the market builds support.

We wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin repeats that same playbook here.

Source: TradingView

3/ Bitcoin dominance needs to rise before it falls

We covered this earlier in the week, but it’s worth repeating.

A steady rise in BTC dominance = the market rebuilding its base before the next real leg up.

The good news: BTC.D is trending upward.

The not-so-good news: it probably needs to hit 60% before we get any real momentum.

Source: TradingView

So here’s your Thanksgiving reminder:

We. Are. Not. Back. Yet.

To get the next real leg up, we need two things:

Bitcoin breaking above its long-term trendline with strength
Bitcoin dominance rising alongside it

A NEW FOUNDATION FOR THE GRID

Is this the most legit energy company to ever enter crypto?

Fuse is a $300M ARR UK utility powering 200,000+ homes - and now it’s launching The Energy Network, a new digital layer engineered to scale our grids and save billions in costs.

It’s one of the only two companies to receive a no-action letter in the past 5 years (and yeah, that’s a pretty big deal).

It’s real infrastructure, not speculation - connecting homes and devices to make power smarter, cheaper, and more efficient.

One of the highest-revenue DePIN projects in crypto - and it’s still pre-launch.

Follow Fuse on X for updates.

BITCOIN IS MOVING IN LOCKSTEP WITH RATE CUT ODDS 🕺

When I see a banger chart, I steal it.

So yes, I’m absolutely stealing this one from Tomas from this week’s macro edition.

Rate-cut odds have been all over the place recently:

Late October: 95%
Then they crashed below 35%
Now they’re back near 85%

The big catalyst was when the Fed President, John Williams, came out and said he “sees room to cut rates again in the near-term”.

That single line sent rate-cut odds flying back to 85% and risk assets like BTC went right along for the ride.

Bitcoin has basically been glued to December rate-cut odds:

Falling odds = BTC slid from $110K → $80K
Rising odds = Mini-pump back toward 90,000

Source: Milk Road Macro

Right now, rate-cut odds are the most important macro metric in the entire market.

And with the next FOMC meeting just 13 days away, there’s plenty of time for another violent swing.

If odds drop again, Bitcoin could easily follow.

Keep a close eye on rate cut odds here.

OUR GRATITUDE LIST 🥛

Yeahhhhh, it might not feel like we have a lot to be grateful for this year. Markets are on the floor, people are negative, we’re seated next to Uncle Billy at dinner (let’s just say he delivers consistent tailwinds…).

But we’re trying to be positive! So here’s our 2025 gratitude list: