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Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Two ticking time bombs.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Gold Just Had Its WORST Crash in 43 Years! Is Bitcoin Next? w/ John Gillen.
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TWO CRYPTO/ECONOMIC TIME BOMBS CONTINUE TO TICK
So, good news/bad news… starting with the bad:
We sat down this morning to record our weekly research meeting (the one you all voted to keep going last week) and our meeting notes app decided to have a meltdown.
No recording. No transcript. Just vibes and a blank screen.
I have the memory of a goldfish, and I don’t want to misquote what was said by our big-brain researchers - so no ‘fly on the wall’ breakdown of our meeting this week.
(Back next week though.) 🤝
The good news? There's no shortage of things to talk about today. Two big stories are unfolding right now, and both have deadlines on them.
Let's start with the one involving missiles.
Over the weekend, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum:
By this morning, we were just hours away from this coming to a head.
Then Trump called it all off. Extended the deadline by 5 days. Said conversations had been "very good and productive".
BTC went from $68.5k to $71.5k in about 15 minutes, and the market exhaled…
But did it end there? Of course not.
Minutes after the walkback, Iranian state media dropped a statement claiming there was no direct or indirect contact with Trump.
They also claimed Trump backed down because they threatened to hit energy infrastructure across West Asia.
So now you've got two countries telling completely different stories about what happened. One says talks are progressing. The other says there were never any talks to begin with.
That's... not great.
What’s worse is, crypto markets (hell, risk assets in general) are wired directly into it all - reacting to every whisper of news.
So watch the headlines. They'll decide whether this pump holds or folds.
… and while two countries play the world's most dangerous game of he-said-she-said, there's another standoff we need to cover back in DC. 👇
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TWO CRYPTO/ECONOMIC TIME BOMBS CONTINUE TO TICK (P2)
The CLARITY Act (the bill that would finally give crypto a regulatory rulebook) has been stuck for weeks over one loaded question:
Should you be able to earn a return just by holding a stablecoin?
On one side, crypto companies like Coinbase are already handing out roughly 4% annually on USDC.
On the other side, banks are offering somewhere between 0.01% and 0.02%.
Banks did the math, figured out they were at a crippling disadvantage, and sent in the lobbyists (grinding the CLARITY Act to a near-halt).
Thankfully, last Thursday, Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) announced they'd reached an agreement…
Here's where it landed:
- Earning yield just for parking your money in a stablecoin? Off the table.
- Getting rewarded because you're actively spending, sending, or using a platform? Still in play.
In short: nobody's getting paid for doing nothing with a stablecoin balance. But move that money around and you're in the clear.
… so, is this a done deal? Not even close.
The CLARITY Act still needs to survive a gauntlet before it means anything:
- A markup vote in the Senate Banking Committee.
- Clearing the full Senate (60-vote threshold).
- Getting aligned with the Agriculture Committee's competing draft.
- Merging with the House bill that went through last July.
- Landing on the President's desk for a signature.
The Banking Committee is eyeing late April for its next move, once Congress returns from Easter break.
Two stories. Two ticking clocks.
One geopolitical, one regulatory.
Both will shape how this week (and likely the rest of April) plays out.
Stay sharp out there folks.
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