GM. This is Milk Road PRO, where we make crypto easier than trying to explain memecoins to your parents.
We've always believed the business cycle drives markets.
That's been our core framework from day one.
A lot of people told us to ditch it when it didn't call a top back in October 2025.
We didn't budge.
And itโs speaking again.
Not a top signal - a risk-off signal.
If you read our last macro PRO report from February 27th, put it aside. Things have changed. A lot.
The short version: the U.S.-Iran conflict could be bigger, longer, and more damaging to the global economy than anyone expected.
๐ Several leading indicators are already flashing red, the kind that have historically shown up before recessions, or at minimum, before conditions that aren't friendly to crypto or high-growth stocks.
So on Monday, I made the call.
I moved 50% of my portfolio to cash.
In today's report, I'm walking through all of it:
- What I cut.
- Why I trimmed some positions harder than others.
- How I'm thinking about the next few weeks and months.
Let's get into it.
Why now?
I'll be straight. I'm not a macro expert. I rely mainly on Tomas and John for that.
And right now, both of them are getting nervous.
They're worried about global growth, the U.S.-Iran situation, and what the combination could mean for markets.
โIf they're right, the current cycle takes a real hit.
So when two people I trust are waving a yellow flag, I'm not going to sit fully invested and act like I didn't see it.
I'm not trying to be smarter than the market.
I just watch the signals that matter for the business cycle and move accordingly.
That answers why now, but why 50% of my portfolio?
Why 50%?
This comes down to my personal risk tolerance, nothing more complicated than that.
The exercise I always run is simple.
How do I feel if the market goes 20% up? 20% down? What about 50%?
Then the real question: how likely are those outcomes right now?
๐ With recession concerns creeping back in, the upside scenarios feel less probable than the downside.
There's still a path where this resolves fast, and we just see a slowdown rather than a full break.
But the longer the Strait stays closed, the slimmer that path looks.
โ๏ธ At the same time, markets still seem to be pricing in a quick resolution.
I don't want to bet everything against that.
So 50% feels right:
- If the market keeps running, I'm okay missing some of the upside. That's the price of playing it safer.
- But if things turn, I'll be glad I didn't wait until the damage was obvious.
There's no universal answer here.
Everyone needs to run through this exercise themselves and figure out what level of risk actually fits their situation.
But not all positions get treated the same when you're de-risking.
My cuts
Some, you cut hard.
Others, you barely touch.
The rationale behind each decision matters as much as the decision itself.
A few things drive how aggressively I trim any given position:
- How much downside does it have in a bad scenario?
๐ Some assets get crushed in a macro downturn. Others are more resilient.
- How convinced am I of the long-term thesis?
๐ If I believe deeply in something over a three to five-year horizon, I'm more likely to hold a partial position even through short-term pain.
- How much has it already run?
๐ If a position is sitting on big gains, trimming makes even more sense. I am locking in profit while reducing risk.
I'm not going to get every call right. That's not the goal.
The goal is to de-risk smartly.
Let me actually walk you through each position and explain the thinking behind every cut.
Uh, Ohโฆ ๐ง The rest of this report is exclusive to Crypto PRO or PRO All Access members!
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WHATโS LEFT INSIDE? ๐
- How much I trimmed each position and the thinking behind every cut.
- Which sectors am I still bullish on despite the uncertainty.
- The three scenarios I see playing out from here.
- Where I expect Bitcoin to land in each of them.
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