Today’s edition is brought to you by Sensible - your new secret weapon for growing your Bitcoin and Ethereum bags.
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GM. This is Milk Road, your all-weather friend in crypto (up, down, or sideways – we’ve got your back!).
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ Risk: off. Safety: on.
- ✍️ Tariff shockwaves hit markets
- 🥛 Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: 3 Ways Trump Could Make a US Crypto Reserve a Reality w/ Jake Chervinsky
- 🍪 No more capital gains tax on crypto?
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
INVESTORS ARE MOVING OUT OF RISK ASSETS (CRYPTO) EN MASSE RIGHT NOW 🏃♂️➡️
The crypto market over the past 3 days has ripped and dipped harder than the Kingda Ka rollercoaster.
(RIP to a real one.)
Here’s a beat-by-beat of what you’ve missed, where we’re at, and the silver lining that you may well have overlooked…
1/ The weekend’s gains have now been wiped out
The total crypto market cap is now down $350B from its weekend highs, having round-tripped back to its pre-Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement prices.
2/ Digital asset products saw their largest weekly outflows on record last week
From Feb 24-28, $2.9B left digital asset products – signaling a rise in risk-off sentiment from TradFi.
3/ All while 10-Year Treasury Yields have been dropping
Treasury bonds are seen as a ‘safe haven’ asset (often used in times of market uncertainty) – and when demand for treasury bonds increases, their yields go down. 👇
4/ And Gold has been thriving…
Here’s a simple, 1,000 ft view of all of that…
Investors are moving out of risk assets (crypto), and into safe assets (Gold & Treasury bonds), as economic uncertainty continues to grow.
Which is bad…right?
Yeah, on paper – it’s not ideal. But here’s the silver lining:
Investors often pile into safe assets when they expect the economy to weaken – and a weakening economy often brings lowered inflation with it.
(As the economy weakens → consumers spend less → meaning producers can’t increase their prices as much → slowing inflation.)
And ‘a weakening economy with reduced inflation’ is exactly what the Federal Reserve needs to see in order to continue cutting interest rates.
(Making loans/credit repayments cheaper → allowing everyone to borrow/spend more → boosting the economy/asset prices.)
Which means the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adding liquidity (fresh cash) to the global economy, alongside China and the US treasury, may be about to increase!
…but there’s a catch.
And it could unravel our whole ‘silver lining thesis’ if it’s not addressed in the short term.
Keep scrolling to the next article to learn what that is. 👇
IS YOUR BITCOIN COLLECTING DUST?
So you have a stack of $BTC and $ETH? (Nice!).
Now – what are you doing to grow that stash in the meantime?
Onchain yield strategies are a great set n’ forget option – problem is, they can get real complicated, real fast!
That’s where Sensible comes in – it’s the easiest way to earn yield on your crypto (no manual bridging, no bouncing between multiple wallets, and no handbook required)!
Here’s what you can look forward to:
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*Yields are variable, not guaranteed and not controlled by Sensible. Over the last 30 days, BTC averaged 2.34% APY and ETH 3.23% APY. Sensible uses protocols like Gauntlet's wrapped Bitcoin product on Morpho, and wrapped staked Ether in order to generate yield.
**Disclaimer: Hey Roadies! A reality check from the Milk Man: I know my dairy, not your dollars. This partner content isn't financial advice.
THE EFFECTS OF TRUMP’S TARIFFS 🔻
So we’ve laid out our silver lining thesis…
Now, what’s the catch?
In a word: Tariffs. In multiple words?
A lot of people initially assumed Trump’s tariff threats were just a negotiating tactic (ourselves included) – but as time went on, it became clear that he fully intended to make them a reality.
And today, they went into effect – increasing import costs from Canada, Mexico, and China (the US’ three largest trading partners).
This marked the largest US tariff hike since 1930, helping to plummet the US Q1 GDP expectations from +3.9% to -2.8% in just 4 weeks, wreak havoc on crypto, and wipe out all of the post-election gains from the US stock market. 👇
Cool. But how is this threatening our ‘silver lining thesis’?
Remember the excuse the Federal Reserve is looking for to cut rates:
A weakening economy with reduced inflation.
Tariffs can weaken an economy in the short term ✅, while also increasing inflation ❌.
Which puts the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place – because cutting rates and printing money tends to increase inflationary pressure, which would only pile on to the inflationary headwinds created by the tariffs.
Yikes! So what’s the solution? Short-lived tariffs.
If the Trump administration uses these tariffs as a negotiating tactic (as previously hoped) and sorts out a deal where they’re axed – we could well have our cake and eat it too.
(I.e. Get rid of tariffs, while giving the Fed the excuse they need to start cutting more aggressively.)
Now, here’s the kicker (and don’t worry, it’s a positive one):
Remember – we don’t need the Fed to start cutting and/or printing in order to boost global liquidity (aka: pump fresh cash into the system) and lift asset prices.
China and the US Treasury have already started that process (and more countries are likely to start contributing in the coming months).
So lemme beat this dead horse one more time…
As scary as all of this feels in the short-term, the future outlook is still positive.
Grit your teeth, keep your ear muffs at the ready, and stay well away from leverage.
(It won’t be easy, but nothing worth doing ever is.)
MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES 📊
Markets are ROUGH right now!
…but remember: extreme fear = buying opportunity.
Which is why we’ve just reduced two of our Milk Road PRO Portfolio positions to zero, and used the funds to allocate to a project we’ve been tracking for a good while now.
(And all at a discount).
Wanna know what it is?
Go PRO if you’re not already, and keep scrolling to find out. 👇
Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so don’t expect a high volume of trades. Read our “How To Build a Crypto Portfolio” report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.
Portfolio performance 📉
The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw a significant decrease over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $81.9K, down 10.6% since last week.
Portfolio prices are updated daily at 6:00 AM ET.
Another wild week in crypto. Markets were tumbling, then—out of nowhere—Trump dropped a Sunday tweet about crypto reserves, hinting at $SOL, $XRP, and $ADA.
An hour later, he followed up, predictably adding Bitcoin and Ethereum to the list.
We’re not here to debate politics, but let’s be real—Sunday night announcements and the inclusion of $ADA and $XRP? That’s a bit concerning 🧐
The market spiked with a strong green candle… but the hype didn’t last. An even bigger red candle followed, wiping out the gains just as fast.
No doubt about it—these are strange times.
Portfolio changes 👀
The Milk Road PRO Portfolio is available for Milk Road PRO members only.
Already a PRO member? Log in here.
GO PRO AND UNLOCK:
- Full access to the Milk Road PRO Portfolio, our yield strategies & weekly updates to see what we’re actively investing in 👆
- NEW: Unlimited access to the Milk Road PRO Token Center with token ratings and insights. 🔓
- Weekly “Where Are We In The Cycle?” indicators to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late 📈
- Weekly reports that help you spot early trends, navigate the markets by limiting risk & catch those sweet cha-ching moments 💰
- Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. Don’t miss the monthly live events! 🫂
- 50% OFF the Crypto Investing Masterclass 📚️
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PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Despite Bybit’s hack, no customer funds were lost. Sure, there were a few nervy moments but looks like Bybit is handling this like a champ.**
SEC closes investigation into Yuga Labs. Another win! The SEC is dismissing these cases pretty quickly now.
No more capital gains tax on crypto? There’s a big rumour going around that this will be announced on Friday’s crypto summit. We’ll keep an eye out for you.
Aave is making some serious moves. They have now activated their fee switch and initiated their buyback program. We repeat, serious moves.
Security, Fees & Key Features. MoonPay’s simplified crypto experience, with seamless payment options (like Apple Pay) across 80+ tokens.
**this is parter content.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
