🥛 U.S. blockade on Iran = markets hostage 😑

GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that turns complexity into clarity - and clarity into confidence.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ What we’re watching this week.
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin & Ethereum Whales Are Buying Like It’s a Bull Market… The Signal Is Clear.
🍪 Morgan Stanley says this correction is basically over.

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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK 👀

ICYMI: Every Monday morning, the Milk Road crew hops on a call → argues about what matters → and relays it all to you here.

So what’re we seeing this week?

In short: it looks like everything wants to rip, but one thing is holding it all hostage.

(Surprise, surprise: it's Iran. Still.)

The nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran failed (again), and this time Trump responded by slapping a full blockade on the country.

As of 10am ET today, the U.S. is shutting down Iran's imports and exports.

Source: @MilkRoad

Iran makes a nice chunk of change from shipping - tolls, trade, moving goods through its waterways. That's now being choked off.

Any ship that pays a toll to Iran risks being detained by U.S. forces in the region.

Our macro guy John didn't mince words on the call: "This is horseshit. They [Iran] have nothing. They can't do anything."

His frustration: the U.S. has offered deal after deal, but Iran keeps stalling. And the longer it drags on, the worse the damage gets.

Where it’s getting increasingly scary?

The oil production shortfall (meaning how much oil the world is missing because of this conflict) has hit 400M barrels.

That's already double what it was at the end of March.

Countries are hoarding resources, rationing energy, and sending tankers to the Gulf of America to buy whatever crude they can get. 👇

Source: @dangambardello

But the U.S. doesn't have enough excess supply to fill the gap. John's estimate? The world needs to cut oil usage by about 20% to make up for the loss.

That's a massive number.

And if we don't get a firm resolution by the start of May (17 days from now) he thinks things get really ugly.

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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK (P2) 👀

Amidst all of this - the markets are… fine?

The Mag 7 (the seven biggest tech stocks) holding steady, while the S&P 500 has been green over the past 7 trading days.

Source: TradingView

John's read is that everything (gold, silver, the S&P, Bitcoin) is sitting at a decision point - like a coiled spring.

Markets want to go higher. They're trying to price in a resolution, but it hasn't happened yet.

"The whole world and all markets are hyperfixated on this one thing," he said. "If it goes in a favorable direction, you'll see a lot of positive momentum. But if it doesn't, we could break down."

So yeah. Vibes are tense.

But while the world waits, big money isn't sitting still…

Tom Lee continues to scoop up ETH, Michael Saylor continues to buy BTC hand over fist… it’s basically a weekly ritual at this point.

Source: @Saylor

What's wild about Saylor is how he's doing it.

He's figured out how to raise bull-market-sized money during a bear market, and has barely missed a single week in the last few months.

As John put it: "He's like a clock who comes up with a billion dollars a week."

And it's not just the Saylor…

Charles Schwab recently opened a waitlist for clients to buy spot Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley launched their spot crypto ETF products, and now has 16,000 investment advisors going out and pitching them to clients.

Source: @BitcoinMagazine

Even Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan who famously called Bitcoin a "decentralized Ponzi scheme," has flipped - he went on TV and said blockchains are now a better infrastructure for the financial world.

The meta-story in crypto right now? An institutional bull run is building, while retail apathy only continues to grow.

Every day, investors are sitting on their hands - but behind the scenes, the biggest financial players on the planet are building on-ramps, launching products, and deploying capital at a pace we’ve never seen before.

(By the time retail wakes up, the pipes will already be laid.)

So that's what we're watching right now:

A world coiled tight, waiting on global conflicts to simmer down - all while a wall of institutional money builds up behind the scenes.

Long story longer…

Hold onto your butts!