GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that’s basically the Weather Channel for your portfolio.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ What to look out for.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin to $48K or $100K First? Why the Next Rally Would Hurt Most Investors w/ Peter Smith.
- 🍪 BTC logged its 5th red month (& is going for a 6th).
Nexo is back in the U.S. - and new clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier perks! Higher yields, lower borrowing rates, and crypto cashback - start here.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆
*Sigh* one chill week would be nice, wouldn’t it?
Welp - don’t hold your breath! ‘Cause it looks like someone just took a hammer to the market’s ‘chill mode’ button.
Here’s what’s coming down the pike this week:
1. Macro 🌎
The macro calendar looks something like this:
- Markets React to the Iran Conflict - Mon - The news of the conflict broke after market close on Friday, so initial reactions will hit today.
- February ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Mon - Did U.S. manufacturers buy more or less goods in Feb?
- February ADP Employment data - Wed - How’s the job market faring?
- Initial Jobless Claims data - Thu - How many people filed for unemployment for the first time this past week?
- January Retail Sales data - Fri - “Do U.S. consumers be shoppin’?”
- February Jobs Report - Fri - How did U.S. employment hold up over the month of Feb?
Good news: ISM PMI data came in above expectations!
The ISM is the result of a survey of purchasing managers across the U.S. manufacturing industry, that basically asks one question:
"Are you buying stuff because you expect growth, or holding back because you expect weakness?"
This sustained move above 50 signals economic expansion.
Expansion raises earnings expectations, improves confidence and typically floats the price of risk assets like crypto.
But of course, there’s the wet blanket that is the Iran conflict.
The thing is…
So far, looking at Bitcoin as a proxy to the broader crypto market - the conflict has not only been shrugged off, it looks like it’s being seen as a buying opportunity:
Ok, but global conflict is messy. Things could change - where’re we at right now with all-things Iran?
2. Iran 🇮🇷
Here's everything that's happened in the last 48 hours or so:
- U.S. & Israel launched massive coordinated strikes on Iran.
- Supreme Leader Khamenei and 48 senior officials (including defense/intel chiefs) were killed in these strikes.
- Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel.
- Iran also targeted U.S. bases in multiple Gulf countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain).
- Iran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel.
- Israel struck back at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
- Nearly all ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been halted.
- Oil prices surged sharply due to Hormuz risks.
- Trump stated that the conflict with Iran could last 4 weeks.
- Iran has refused any negotiation / talks with the U.S.
Yuh. It’s a lot. And there’s likely only more to come.
Now, let’s switch things up, by:
Removing our wide-angle market lens → replacing it with something that has a zoom function → and taking a look at some more crypto-specific events…
CRYPTO SHOULD WORK HARDER FOR YOU
Most people hold crypto and hope.
The smart money? They're earning interest on it, borrowing against it without selling, and trading it.
Where can you do the same all in one place? Nexo.
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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK (P2) 📆
As you’re probably well aware by now:
The CLARITY Act promises to lock in regulatory clarity for ALL of crypto in the U.S.
(Which should allow deep-pocketed institutions to invest more dollars into a wider array of crypto projects.)
… so where’re we at with it?
3. Legislation 🏛️
The White House made a March 1st deadline to clear up the CLARITY Act’s momentum bottlenecks.
That was yesterday. So what happened?
Short answer: not a lot (but apparently we’re still heading in the right direction).
Official channels have been relatively mute on any forward movement forced by the deadline, so instead, Crypto Twitter decided to latch on to this comment made by Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse:
But even though the deadline has felt like a big ol’ nothing burger so far…
The ‘Clarity Act signed into law in 2026’ bet on Polymarket has seen a nice little lift from ~62-70% over the past 48hrs.
Guess we’ll just have to hurry up and wait… again ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. Podcasts 🎙️
Here’s who’s on the schedule this week:
- Tue - Arthur Hayes (Co-founder of BitMEX) - Milk Road Daily.
- Tue - Keith McCullough (CEO, Hedgeye Risk Management) - Milk Road Macro.
- Wed - Tom Schmidt (General Partner at Dragonfly, one of the world's largest crypto funds) - Milk Road Daily.
- Thu - Lorenzo Valente and Raye Hadi (researchers at Ark Invest) - Milk Road Daily.
Phew! Ok, we got through it all.
Mark your calendars, re-arrange your schedules, and get ready for a busy week ahead!
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
This seems too good to be true. Nexo’s “Zero-interest credit” lets you borrow $BTC or $ETH with no yearly interest or fee.*
Hopium den: BTC just logged its 5th red month (& is going for a 6th). Last time we saw this kind of bleed was in 2019 and it led to a reversal w/ 316% returns.
The AI king just lost $400B: Is the market about to crash?
Brrrr: Arthur Hayes forecasts Fed printing as Trump’s Iran war ramps up. Here’s what that means for the price of Bitcoin - DL News.
*sigh* There’s a new crypto tax rule from the IRS. It’s called the 1099-DA and we’ve broken everything down around it here.*
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MILKY MEMES 🤣
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