GM. This is Milk Road – happy 4th of July baaaaaby! Who’s got fireworks? (The Milk Man’s ready to celebrate…and maybe lose some fingers.)
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ History tells us to be bullish in July
- ✍️ Looking beyond July (and getting even more bullish)
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Crypto Summer Slowdown or Pump? Bitcoin Q3 Price Prediction w/ Julio Moreno
- 🍪 Even design apps are stacking Bitcoin now
Grayscale is the OG crypto asset manager. Check out Grayscale’s ‘BTC’ ETP - the cheapest way to get exposure to Bitcoin
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
HISTORY IS TELLING US TO BE BULLISH ON $BTC IN JULY 🤘
You know the story:
Every four years since 2013, as global liquidity (aka: the total amount of money sloshing around the global financial system) has peaked, so have crypto prices.
And in those years, July has always been a green month for Bitcoin. 👇
Which means history is telling us to be bullish this month!
And it’s not just crypto history – the S&P 500 (which represents the bulk of the US stock market, and has been tracked since 1928) is telling us the same thing:
…but unfortunately, there’s a catch.
The global liquidity cycle has been thrown off this year.
The tariff-induced economic growth scare kind of ‘reset’ it, suggesting we may see a market peak in 2026 instead of 2025.
Silver lining: that doesn’t mean this July – hell, the rest of 2025 – can’t still bring us those sweet, sweet returns we all desire.
So let’s stop looking at historic data, and start looking at some forward-looking indicators and get a gauge of what’s on the horizon.
Keep scrolling to the next article and we’ll lay it all out. 👇
THE CHEAPEST BITCOIN ETP
Pop quiz: Who is the only asset manager with two Bitcoin ETPs?
Answer: Grayscale!
Most of you might have heard about $GBTC - their flagship Bitcoin ETP.
But their other ETP, BTC, might actually be the better choice. Here’s why:
BTC is the cheapest Bitcoin ETP in the U.S.! 🔥
With a 0.15% management fee, it undercuts competitors charging 0.19%-0.25%. Sure, the difference might seem small but the savings add up over time.
BTC offers the same Bitcoin exposure but with lower fees (sounds like a no-brainer to me).
Invest in the cheapest Bitcoin ETP now!
LOOKING BEYOND JULY 👀
You know what?
We’re going to start our long weekend with some mid-afternoon drinks.
So if you wanna join us, here’s the game:
Every time you read “$BTC will move up in the next 3 months” or any variation of that – you take a sip.
Our aim is to get you tipsy by the end of the article. Got your drink in hand? Alright, let’s go.
1/ The US Dollar (DXY) is down
There's a clear correlation between the DXY and $BTC. They have a strong negative relationship.
This means that when the DXY falls, $BTC tends to move up (but on a 3 month lag).
*Takes a sip*
And if you’ve been reading our newsletter carefully, you’ll know that the DXY has had the worst first half (H1) of the year it has had in 4 decades.
(TL;DR: DXY down = $BTC up 3 months later.)
*Takes another sip*
2/ Global liquidity is rising
As we mentioned in the first article – a core thesis that we follow (laid out in this free guide) is that global liquidity drives $BTC.
…and guess what: it tends to follow with a 3-month lag.
(*SIP*)
Good news is: right now, global liquidity is rising. 👇
3/ The Global Economy Index (GEI) is also trending up
This is the first time we’re using this metric so lettuce explain it real quick.
Think of the Global Economy Index (GEI) as a report card for the global economy. When the index is rising, $BTC usually follows 3 months later.
And we're currently seeing a serious uptick in GEI.
This means two things: Bitcoin’s current outlook is positive and – yup – we all need to take a sip.
(Wow, really starting to feel the buzz, hey?)
All of these macro indicators are telling us that…
*checks notes*
(Oh sweet merciful lord above.)
$BTC will move up in the next 3 months.
*crosseyed sip*
…if anyone needs us, we’ll be at the nearest pet store, asking the clerk where they keep the rideable bald eagles.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
One account to rule them all. We dropped an article on Bitget’s Unified Trading Account (UTA) that lets you trade spot, futures and margin all from one place.*
$187.2 million dollars. That’s how much money BlackRock has generated from its Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) in annual fees.
Even design apps are stacking Bitcoin now. Figma, one of the biggest names in design, has invested around $100M into the Bitcoin ETFs.
Ripple applies for a US banking license. This is to ensure they can remain a stablecoin issuer with $RLUSD after the Genius Act goes into effect.
Three standout tokens are catching attention this week. From a classic meme, to an underrated bot, to a sleeper meme play, this week’s list is pure curiosity—worth a closer look.
This DEX solves an actual UX issue! Milk Road Swap supports both Ethereum and Solana tokens in a single interface.
*this is sponsored content.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
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