GM. This is Milk Road Macro, the macro newsletter that tracks liquidity the way kids track Santa on NORAD, obsessively and slightly unhinged.
Santa is coming to town and so is another Milk Road Macro PRO AMA for our Macro PRO community!
Rejoicing in the highest!
We know that not everyone can attend the live AMAs so we’re sharing a recording and a written summary as a little stocking stuffer for you all.
Reminder - this is NOT replacing our (awesome) Monthly Macro PRO Report - this is in addition to it.
The next alpha packed Macro PRO report is scheduled for January 4th so be on the lookout for that.
In this AMA we covered the Fed starting “reserve management purchases”, the outlook for 2026, the impact of debt refinancing on liquidity cycles, and a lot more!
Main themes covered:
- Where liquidity stands now and into Q1 2026
- How the Fed, Treasury, and bank rules are shaping market conditions
- ISM/PMI and the business cycle outlook for 2026
- U.S. rate cuts vs. Bank of Japan hikes
- Debt rollover cycles and the four-year liquidity rhythm
- How to read Bitcoin ETF flows alongside price
- Portfolio positioning and whether a “crypto winter” is likely
- Market structure chatter (market makers, leverage flush)
There were a lot of great questions in this one that really covered a lot of macro landscape.
Alright, let’s go Macro!
Macro environment & market context
- The Fed is quietly adding liquidity via “reserve management purchases” of 1–3 year T-bills (~$40B/month into April). It’s not QE, but it’s liquidity-positive and acknowledges stress in bank reserves and repo.
- The TGA refill to ~$1T and the government shutdown pulled more liquidity than expected; those effects are still working through. This helps explain Q4 risk-off and why the Fed pivoted to reserve management.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.6% and is trending higher, classic “bad news is good news” for more accommodative policy and rate cuts.
- Outlook: Liquidity should keep expanding into Q1 2026, though whether that’s the peak is unclear and depends on policy follow-through.
Policy catalysts in 2026
- The CLARITY Act (expected in January) is seen as a meaningful 2026 catalyst for digital assets by providing regulatory clarity.
- “Big beautiful bill” fiscal measures, including tax cuts in 2026, are broadly stimulative for the real economy and employment.
Now for the Q&A you came for. 👇️
Uh, Oh… 😧 The rest of this report is exclusive to Macro PRO and All Access members!
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WHAT’S LEFT INSIDE? 👀
- Does the ISM drive altseason?
- What is the liquidity outlook for 2026 and when is it going to peak?
- Is “crypto winter” about to start?
- How do ETH flows affect Bitcoin’s price action?
Upgrade your subscription today to unlock access to all of the milky insights above, PLUS:
- Monthly macro updates to help you manage investments, allocate capital, take profits, and stay ahead in macro 📊
- Live AMAs where our analysts break down the latest trends and answer your biggest questions. 🎙️
- Access to the PRO Community, where you can chat directly with our analysts and fellow Macro PRO members in our private Discord. Ask questions, share ideas, and stay plugged in between reports. 🫂
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WHAT MACRO PRO MEMBERS SAID LAST WEEK:
