Hello Frens,
We’re back with another round of Milk Road Macro PRO AMAs for our Macro PRO community!
(I know, I’m excited too.)
If you missed the live AMA or want to rewatch, the full recording is available here.
Prefer text? The full written summary is right below with key points.
As another reminder - this is NOT replacing our Monthly Macro PRO Report - this is in addition to it.
The next Macro PRO report is scheduled for November 2 so be on the lookout for that.
In this AMA we covered the effect of Fed rate cuts on DeFi, the Trade War between the US and China, and where the dollar might go from here.
Alright, let’s get macro with the key takeaways from the AMA!
Macro Environment & Market Context
- The recent crypto liquidation event was severe but largely contained to crypto; it does not reflect the broader macroeconomic landscape.
- Liquidity is returning to markets as the Treasury General Account (TGA) refill is complete, a major drag now removed.
- The majority of global central banks are now in easing mode; the Fed is lagging but pivoting slowly.
- The U.S. economy shows signs of reacceleration, as the ISM and PMI are ticking up, suggesting a new or delayed business cycle upswing.
- Despite fear, there’s no clear top across major assets (Bitcoin, S&P, Gold)—no blow-off tops, no retail euphoria.
- Gold is outperforming and increasingly held by central banks over U.S. debt, signaling a loss of trust in dollar-denominated assets.
- Institutions (BlackRock, JP Morgan, Vanguard) are moving into crypto slowly but with conviction.
Crypto-Specific Observations
- The “melt-up” in Bitcoin has been long, slow, and steady—160+ days above $100K, showing strength without euphoria.
- Altcoins haven’t yet run, which is unusual this late in the cycle—but could set the stage for a delayed alt season.
- Institutional adoption is picking up fast: BlackRock’s ETF hit ~$100B, JP Morgan and Vanguard are offering crypto to clients.
- Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s year-to-date volatility has been lower than the S&P 500.
On Leverage and Risk
- Leverage is the #1 killer in digital assets; it’s a tool meant for institutional hedging, not for retail YOLO trading.
- The recent $20B liquidation could have involved up to 2 million positions, highlighting how many people are overexposed and misusing leverage.
- Long-term success comes from preserving capital, not chasing 100x bets.
Now for the Q&A you came for. 👇️
Uh, Oh… 😧 The rest of this report is exclusive to Macro PRO and All Access members!
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WHAT’S LEFT INSIDE? 👀
- Why do most altcoins closely track Bitcoin’s movements?
- How might recent events like the government shutdown and U.S.–China tensions affect the Fed’s rate-cutting plans?
- What do you think about the "Market Radar" thesis for selling all risk assets?
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WHAT MACRO PRO MEMBERS SAID LAST WEEK:
