Gemini Forecasts $5 Billion Influx for Spot Ethereum ETFs in First Six Months

Gemini has released a research report outlining the potential impact of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States.

The study predicts a substantial influx of capital as these new investment vehicles prepare to make their debut.

Key points:

• Gemini projects up to $5 billion in net inflows for spot ETH ETFs within six months.
• Total assets under management could reach $13-$15 billion, including existing Grayscale trust.
• ETH/BTC ratio near multi-year lows, suggesting potential for major growth.
• Launch timeline faces slight delays due to regulatory processes and holiday schedules.

According to Gemini’s analysis, spot Ethereum ETFs could attract as much as $5 billion in net inflows during their first half-year of trading.

This figure, when combined with the assets currently held in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), could push the total AUM for U.S.-based spot ETH ETFs to a range between $13 and $15 billion.

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Gemini forecasts a potential Ethereum rally

The introduction of these ETFs is expected to have far-reaching implications for Ethereum’s market position. Gemini’s researchers note that Ethereum’s value compared to Bitcoin is currently at or near multi-year lows.

The report states that it is presenting a favorable risk-reward scenario for an “ETH catch-up trade” in the coming months.

Gemini’s report suggests that if the ETH/BTC ratio were to return to its median value over the past three years, it could result in a rally of almost 20%.  

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The report also stated that inflows below $3 billion would be viewed as disappointing. This is considering the fact that Bitcoin ETFs attracted $15 billion in their first six months. On the other hand, inflows exceeding $5 billion would be considered a strong showing.

Recent reports from industry insiders suggest slight delays in the regulatory process. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly taken additional time to provide feedback to ETF issuers. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the process is expected to resume in full force around July 8th.