🥛Hedge fund legend: We could see a crypto Renaissance
- Writer Milk Man
- September 29, 2022
- •3 Min Read
GM. This is the Milk Road, the daily newsletter that makes crypto so exciting we’ll have you doing the Ric Flair “WOOOOOO”
Here’s what we got for you today:
- Druckenmiller says a crypto Renaissance could be coming
- Milkbusters: NFT floor prices
- Quick bites
- Meme of the day
DRUCKENMILLER SAYS A CRYPTO RENAISSANCE COULD BE COMING
Stanley Druckenmiller dropped some bombs at the Delivering Alpha Investor Summit yesterday. What a name for a conference btw - no beta delivered, just alpha.
If you don’t know Stanley Druckenmiller, he’s:
- A billionaire (net worth of ~$6.4b)
- A legendary investor & famous for making a $10b bet against the British pound in the 90s
- The guy who managed money for George Soros
- “Self-Made". He has a "self-made" score of 8, according to Forbes. No clue how they calculate that, but #Respect.
Here were the top 2 takeaways from what he said:
1/ The U.S economy is headed for a “hard landing”. If you haven’t heard of an economic “hard landing” here’s a visual.
Translation: We're in trouble.
And Druckenmiller says he’d be stunned if we don’t plunge into a recession in 2023. He blames the Fed's action over the last year and says their “ridiculous theory of transitory” could have repercussions on our economy for a long, long time.
But there could be a silver lining for all of us in crypto, and that’s because he believes…
2/ The loss of trust in central banks around the world could lead to a crypto renaissance
Druckenmiller made it clear he doesn’t own any crypto. Although, with “central banks tightening up.” he thinks that crypto could play a big role in a Renaissance if people continue to lose trust in banks.
And with everything going on with the Bank of England and other central banks, he thinks it could get ugly in the next 2-3 years.
And he’s right. Just look at how Bitcoin has performed vs other fiat currencies over the last week.
According to data from Messari, we're seeing investors sell the Euro and British Pound for BTC in record numbers.
And yeah, it's called soccer now.
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MILKBUSTERS: NFT FLOOR PRICE
We're coming back at ya with another edition of The Milkbusters, where we debunk some of the biggest misconceptions in crypto.
This week we're talking about NFT floor prices. And we have a surprise guest....
Our good friend, Kofi. He's a VC at 1confirmation & an NFT data wizard.
He’s here to help us answer one thing: Does the floor price of a collection tell you the true value of an NFT?
And just so we’re on the same page, floor price = the cheapest NFT you can buy in a collection on a marketplace like OpenSea.
Alright, well enough from us. We’re handing it off to Kofi…
Kofi: Despite being the most popular measure for the value of a collectible or PFP NFT, listing floor price is a bullshit metric.
The real floor is the lowest price where sales are actually taking place. This is the price buyers are willing to buy at. The price that really matters.
The “true value” of your NFT is not the floor price. It's almost always lower than that.
Let me show you some examples 👇
Bored Ape Yacht Club. In the BAYC collection, the real floor has consistently remained about 14% lower than the listing floor. Here I define the real floor as the bottom 5% percentile of sales made that day.
This means that if you ever wanted to sell a common BAYC instantly, the right strategy would be to ask for 14% less than the listing floor.
On the flip side, this opens up a golden opportunity for buyers. If you're a buyer you could submit a bunch of bid proposals at that level and possibly get a better price than if you instabought an NFT on the listing floor.
Let’s look at 2 other examples:
- For the Cool Cats collection, the real floor sits ~17% below the listing floor
- For the Moonbirds collection, the real floor sits ~14% below the listing floor
Kofi’s Key Takeaway: The listing floor is a mirage. A fantasy. An illusion. Watch sales data to gauge "real value". Here is a dashboard I made to help with that using Reservoir’s dataset.
The Milk Road Takeaway: I guess NFT floor prices are just like when a girl asks you how tall you are. You might say 6’0 but you know damn well you’re 5’10.
WisdomTree (an investment fund with $75b AUM) is launching a new digital fund. Their CEO expects all financial assets to eventually move to the blockchain.
Circle announced that USDC (the 2nd largest stablecoin in crypto) will be available on 5 new blockchains in early 2023. The 5 blockchains are Optimism, Polkadot, Cosmos, NEAR, and Arbitrum
This CryptoPunk NFT sold for 3,300 ETH (~$4.45m). It's the 4th largest CryptoPunk sale ever
Tyler Hobbs (generative artist) made ~$16.7m on his new NFT collection's launch, QQL.
But I thought everyone was saying NFTs were dead? Hm...
MEME OF THE DAY
That's a wrap for today. Stay thirsty & see ya tomorrow!
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A ROADERS REVIEW
VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
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