🥛 This IPO could make you filthy rich 👀

GM. This is Milk Road AI, the only newsletter that knows the difference between a tech demo and a business model.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ The biggest IPO battle of 2026 is here.
🎙️ The Milk Road AI Show: OpenAI’s Revenue Ramp Kills the AI Bubble Narrative w/ Duncan & Patrick.
🍪 Google brings Hume AI talent to Gemini voice.

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THE AI IPO WARS HAVE BEGUN

In 1602, a group of Dutch merchants had a crazy idea.

They wanted to sail to Indonesia to buy nutmeg and pepper (which, back then, was worth more than gold).

But there was a problem: the voyages were incredibly expensive and dangerous.

Ships sank, pirates attacked, and worst of all, there was scurvy.

(Fun fact: During that period, Scurvy killed more sailors than storms and combat combined. Who would’ve thought Vitamin C was literally harder to find than treasure.)

Source: Makeagif

It was too risky for one person to fund alone, so they invented something new:

The Initial Public Offering (IPO).

The Dutch East India Company (VOC) became the first company in history to sell paper shares to the public.

The charter lasted for 21 years, which sounded terrifying to investors so the founders added a loophole that changed capitalism forever:

Liquidity.

They allowed investors to sell their shares to other people on a bridge in Amsterdam.

This single innovation birthed the modern Stock Market.

And it was a massive success.

At its height in the 17th century, the VOC was the most valuable company in history.

Its peak value has been estimated at over $7.9T in today's currency.

The VOC became a global superpower with its own army, currency, and colonies.

It was basically Apple, Amazon, and the U.S. Marines rolled into one.

Fast forward 424 years. We aren't hunting for nutmeg anymore.

The new "spice" is intelligence.

The "ships" are data centers and the pirates? Well, they’re just regulators now.

The assets have changed, but the ambition hasn't.

We are standing on the edge of a new financial empire, and the IPO market is waking up to fund it.

The main event in 2026? A heavyweight clash between the two absolute kings of AI.

Let’s see whose corporate sugar daddies have deeper pockets.

It’s time for the weigh-in.

In the red corner: OpenAI

Fighting out of San Francisco, California. Weighing in at a rumored $1T valuation. Backed by the empire of Microsoft.

The undisputed king of hype: OooooopenAI!

OpenAI is reportedly planning to IPO in 2026 at a $1T valuation, which would make it one of the largest debuts in history.

But they aren't going public just to ring the bell.

They are going public because they discovered a new law of financial physics:

More power = More money.

OpenAI’s pitch to Wall Street is that they are completely supply-constrained.

Looking back at the last three years, their revenue has tracked their compute capacity with terrifying precision:

2023: 0.2 GW of compute = $2B revenue.
2024: 0.6 GW of compute = $6B revenue.
2025: 1.9 GW of compute = $20B revenue.

Source: OpenAI

Both compute and revenue are growing 3X year-over-year, proving that their machine effectively turns electricity into gold.

To keep this 3X flywheel spinning, however, the bill is finally coming due.

Even with $20B in revenue, the gap between their income and their ambition is a black hole that private investors can no longer fill.

(There are only so many yachts VCs can sell before they start getting nervous.)

That is why they are sprinting to the public markets to raise a rumored $60B immediately.

But here is the dirty little secret hiding in their financials:

While they boast about massive revenue, 73% of it (roughly $14.6B) comes from consumers paying $20/month for ChatGPT Plus.

But when you crunch the numbers, the average revenue per user is a measly $25 per year.

Why? Because the free tier is a massive bonfire burning $2-3B a year in compute credits.

Sam Altman basically admitted it:

"The rich are paying so the poor can use it for free."

It’s digital socialism, funded by your credit card, but don't worry, Sam Altman has a plan.

First, the inevitable is finally happening: Ads.

OpenAI is officially bringing ads into ChatGPT.

If you’re on the free tier, prepare to have your deep philosophical conversations interrupted by a promo for a discount code for NordVPN.

Okay, fine, maybe that’s an exaggeration but here is an example of what it may look like.

Source: OpenAI

But that’s not even the boldest move.

The wildest part of their new playbook is something that sounds like it came straight out of a dystopian novel.

OpenAI’s CFO recently dropped a bombshell:

The company plans to take a cut of any IP its AI helps customers invent.

Let that sink in. If you use their model to discover a new drug, invent a new material, or crack a financial code, they don't just want your subscription fee.

They want a royalty on your genius.

They are effectively trying to become the IRS of intelligence.

While OpenAI tries to figure out how to tax your ideas, users are simply leaving.

Gemini’s market share has hit 22%, up from 19.5% just a month ago and 13.3% three months ago.

Source: @RihardJarc

Gemini gained 2.5 percentage points in the last 30 days alone, proving the exodus is accelerating rather than plateauing.

Users are realizing they don't need an all-knowing oracle that demands a cut of the profits, especially when rivals like Gemini are doing the same job.

But wait! There is an underdog in this fight who is also set to IPO in 2026.

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THE AI IPO WARS HAVE BEGUN (P2)

Fighting out of San Francisco (as well). Weighing in at a modest $350B.

Backed by the empire of Amazon and Google.

The champion of coding: Annthroooppic!

While OpenAI is busy planning world domination, Anthropic has entered the ring as the underdog.

And just like their flashy rival, they are also preparing for a massive IPO in 2026.

Who are they? Anthropic was founded by Dario Amodei and a team of OpenAI defectors who built Claude on "Constitutional AI":

A strict safety framework that prevents the model from going rogue.

While ChatGPT is trying to be everything to everyone, Claude is built for deep work.

Their breakthrough, Claude Code, is an autonomous agent that can code on its own for up to 30 hours straight:

It navigates file systems like a senior engineer.
It fixes bugs and refactors complex codebases without human hand-holding.
It’s basically an engineer on steroids that costs pennies on the dollar.

This is the part where the "Underdog" actually steals the belt.

Source: Chessmood

According to the latest data from Menlo Ventures, Anthropic stole the entire enterprise market:

In 2023: OpenAI was the undisputed king with 50% of the enterprise market.
In 2025: OpenAI collapsed to 27%. Anthropic (Orange) skyrocketed to 40%.

Source: @thexcapitalist

This theft of market share is turning directly into a theft of cash.

Their annualized revenue doubled in just six months, hitting $9B by January 2026 (up from $4B in July 2025).

To put that in perspective: They are adding a billion dollars in run rate almost every month.

Source: themacrosift

And here is the knockout punch: Anthropic is on track to turn a profit much faster than OpenAI.

According to projections:

Anthropic anticipates breaking even by 2028.
OpenAI projects operating losses of $74B that same year.

Investors smell blood in the water.

Anthropic is currently closing a new funding round that is reportedly oversubscribed.

While they targeted $10B, with prior commitments from Microsoft and Nvidia, the total raise could top $20B+ valuing the company at roughly $350B.

The final verdict

Come IPO day, smart investors will trade the rockstar for the engineer.

OpenAI sells a dream that costs $74B a year to maintain, essentially requiring an infinite checking account to stay alive.

Anthropic is playing a completely different sport.

They have already secured the smartest customers, the biggest checks, and the most efficient path to profitability.

While the internet argues over which chatbot has a better personality, I’m following the profit margins.

Mark my words: I will be buying Anthropic when it finally IPOs.

Let everyone else pay for the drama, I’d rather pay for results.

That’s it for today. Now we turn it over to the jury (that’s you).

Who wins the belt?

AI CAPITAL TSUNAMI IS REAL 🌊

This past Friday, Patrick & Duncan sat down to talk about why OpenAI’s explosive revenue ramp is reshaping the AI narrative, from massive CapEx to global power politics.

Here’s what you’ll hear:

How OpenAI’s revenue trajectory reframes the so-called AI bubble debate.
Why compute, energy, and capital are converging into a trillion dollar megatrend.
What sovereign wealth funds, geopolitics, and chip controls mean for AI’s future.
The downstream impacts on labor, GDP, and who actually captures AI’s gains.

It’s a banger of an episode, don’t miss it. 👇